SVB is Now In the Hands of the FDIC

Klaus

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I did. But I haven't seen or heard of any big bank runs with any of the big boys. Yet. We'll see what happens this week.

This is what a run looks like. Cash is coming out of banks and going into 2 year USTs. This is a MASSIVE move. It amounts to trillions of $.

US-SVB-Treas2303130440.png
 

VegasMichael

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I don't argue about the reasons of the systemic nature of this. I mostly understand it. I was/am more concerned about the systemic relationship concerning the stock prices of the big banks. Some of these smaller banks have lost huge percentages of market value. I just haven't seen it with the big boys. Yet. That was really what I was talking about. If the big boys start dropping market value like some of the smaller guys have it will be ugly as hell.
 

Blk04L

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Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Illumina, First Republic, Seagen and more

PacWest Bancorp, Western Alliance Bancorp
— Regional lenders PacWest Bancorp’s shares fell by more than 40% while Western Alliance’s stock fell by more than 51%, with both banks stinging from the closure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. In an attempt to calm investors, both banks said on Friday that their liquidity and deposits remained strong.

Bank of America

, JP Morgan, Citigroup
— Shares of major banks saw significant losses in early market trading, after the closure of two major banks has spread fear among investors and pushed regulators to further clamp down on risks associated with the bank closures. Bank of America lost 4.2%, JP Morgan shed about 1.4%, and Citi was down 2.25%.

Charles Schwab

— Shares declined by more than 6.6% before the bell. Citi upgraded the stock to buy from neutral, however, saying the company’s 23% decline over the last two trading days gives it a “compelling” risk-reward ratio. Citi expects near-term revenue and earnings headwinds from rising funding costs and continued client cash sorting, which it believes are already reflected in the current stock price.

PNC

— Shares lost nearly 5.2% early Monday morning after the bank decided against bidding on Silicon Valley Bank as regulators struggle to find buyers for the failed bank.
 

Kornilov

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I wish I could offer some brilliant advice that would make you rich. The longer I do this the more realize that my crystal ball does not work as well as I think.

If you can afford to stay invested stay invested. Not doing anything is often the best thing.

Cost averaging is the only thing that works. Say you have 12k. Don't put it all in at once as your performance will be determined by the exact date that you put it in. Instead do 1k a month for 12 months.

As far as specific market calls, I am long bonds, gold and cash relative to stocks. But I made these calls months ago. In the near term I will be adding to bonds.

As I have clarity on fed interest rate trajectory I will pivot to stocks. I will put more into the market at that time. I cost average as well.

Value stocks will outperform growth stocks initially. As the fed pivot becomes clear and as we exit recession growth stocks will outperform.

Your positioning seems fine for what sounds like a high amount of risk tolerance. As fed pivots, consume less and save more. By save I mean invest.

How much you save vs. consume is the most impact full decision you can make.

Your EM positioning should do well as US rates come down. The dollar will weaken relative to other currencies. Capital will flow to EM. The counter is that EM is levered to US consumption so if we are entering a recession then EMs may be hurt.

It is possible that domestic consumption of EMs is enough to outweigh this.

Also, take a look at the holdings of your EM fund. Chances are you are very long China and Chinese banks in particular.

BTC may be a very interesting asset to hold right now. If you are worried about systemic financial risk then a store of value outside of the financial system makes sense.

Hope this helps

Appreciate it. This dove tails with exactly what I was hoping to hear.
I have a high tolerance for risk and my portfolios are set up for the long term, so short term fluctuations dont cause me panic.
 

MG0h3

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Quite the reversal in overall market.

Futures were up @1.8% last night, down over 2% from there @-.3% now.


Sent from my iPhone using svtperformance.com
 

VegasMichael

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Quite the reversal in overall market.

Futures were up @1.8% last night, down over 2% from there @-.3% now.


Sent from my iPhone using svtperformance.com
I think stocks will be all over the place today.
Slo Jo Go and Blo is supposed to be on this AM. We'll see what pearls of wisdom he has to offer.
 

OX1

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yesterday was battle stations for me.

SVB was big in many markets that people did not realize.

First Republic and Pac West are in a similar position.

The cliff note version is that they were long duration and did not have to mark their book until now. They had more liabilities than assets.

This applies to plenty of other banks and insurance companies.

Let the games begin.

Was some talk on consrv. sites that ESG had some to do with it. Any thoughts on that?
 

mariusvt

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I wonder how much more they are going to let First Republic flounder before making it bank #3.
 

Weather Man

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Odds on FRC being shut down? Hard to see it, but it is the Biden admin. It would really turn into a bank massacre.
 

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