I would like to add another couple factors that will show that the recession is coming or at our doorstep,........people defaulting on their auto loans and people defaulting on their credit card payments.
Not good.
Not good.
Recession of 2022
- Thread starter q6543
- Start date
So damn true
Which means they would still be up 30% over historical norms. That is a slight correction not a recession in my mind.
I still like Reagan’s definition. “A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose your job”
That's where it starts and mortgages fallow quickly after.
I think people are on the edge right now. I am seeing a lot more mustangs for sale in my area. I think some are just trying to break even on their loans.
This whole economy just feels weird. Every business is screaming for workers. Pay is just nuts over what it was two years ago. Everyone I know is making more and busy as hell, but they all have this funk. They are worried about international affairs, worried about the country, worried about their families, just like they are stuck in this miasma coming out of DC. Maybe Trump stirring up the place has really released the swamp gas.
I'm busy y as hell, but not making more money. Construction industry is too ****ed up right now. Labor and materials are too high and I spend all my time chasing dumb problems that I've never had in 25 years.
I wish it was down $.70. It's down like $.15 for me
Construction is a PITA, and I'm in design.
On my end I have to chase sub contractors trying to cut corners for drainage/paving/water etc...
No one knows what they are doing anymore. Some of the most basic common sense things don't get done right. My plan for this year is to start building little shitbox houses. At least when someone knows they are buying a shitbox, they can't be too picky.
Pay goes up but so does rent, gas, food, materials, etc. So in reality, most are not keeping much, if any, more than before.
I do agree though the craziest thing of it all, bunch of places are hiring or/and are in need of workers yet we're in/going to a recession?
2008 and Now
despite the end of the unemployment payments and such there are still plenty of assistance programs out there. If you can sit home and make out the same as flipping burgers at McDs why go to work? I know a couple that in the last ~1.5 years has had all but 2-3 of their rent payments made via various assistance programs
Wow! Didnt think there's still assistance programs going on. I thought they were pretty much done last year. Didnt the unemployment help ended last year around September?
much, if not most, of CA rent going up by 10% next month.
www.latimes.com
The big rent increase across California next month
Starting Aug. 1, landlords will be allowed to increase rents by as much as 10% under a state law affecting millions of tenants across California.
The labor demand is part of the why.
We can't increase output enough with the lack of workers.
So year over year comps roll over.
It does seem like we need some kind of big shock to snap people back to reality.
Kind of like how C19 snapped alot of people.
Perhaps a fresh black swan.... the war didn't work.
We can't increase output enough with the lack of workers.
So year over year comps roll over.
It does seem like we need some kind of big shock to snap people back to reality.
Kind of like how C19 snapped alot of people.
Perhaps a fresh black swan.... the war didn't work.
FL stopped the federal stuff in June or July but Orange County/City of Orlando have had various assistance ongoing
Because we haven't reached pre-covid work force levels.
I work at boeing. Lay offs occured July 31 2020 due to covid.
50% of those laid off accepted recalls in July and Sept 2022.
I feel this. The amount of negative news coming out of national and international news outlets is a serious blow to the rational man's outlook for the future. Combine that with the amount of negative news, especially crime, from local news outlets in a relatively safe, mid-sized city and it's a death blow for future prospects.
My wife wants another kid and I tell her we'd be nuts to bring another life into this world unless we can shield them from the swamp creatures that are increasingly inhabiting society. Maybe it would be more likely if daycare didn't cost $15k a year for one kid.
It is still mind boggling to me that, at best, this country can hardly get 60% of people between ages 16 to 64 to go to work.
It's not a high bar either, just working at all counts and so does being on unemployment. Even given the fact that 16-18 year olds should be high school students and a good percentage of 18-23 year olds are college students, barely 60% seems incredibly low. There aren't that many stay at home moms and HS/college students that don't work at all.
WAY too many people are on disability or otherwise feeding at the trough of government assistance. Time to cut off most of them and find out who will sink or swim.
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