Current New Vehicle Market

[13COBRA]

Q1 the GDP contracted... if it does it again Q2--which we have only 2 more months to go--we'll be in textbook recession.

I do think there is pent-up demand in some commodity markets that will keep some industries busy through the summer into Q4, but we are all going to be shocked with how full dealer lots magically become over the next 12-18 months.

I don't think so. 85% of my incoming inventory over the next 6 months is already sold. Most of the other 15% will be sold before it arrives.

Stock orders are a way back seat to retail orders. Until there are weeks of lesser and lesser retail orders, we won't see stock units getting built.

 

[gimmie11s]

I don't think so. 85% of my incoming inventory over the next 6 months is already sold. Most of the other 15% will be sold before it arrives.

Stock orders are a way back seat to retail orders. Until there are weeks of lesser and lesser retail orders, we won't see stock units getting built.

You have a closer eye on this than most of us, but remember--your view is primarily through Ford glasses.

There are other manufacturers that are already seeing their lots filling up.

If Ford can't get their shit together, and your inventory is spoken for, for the next 6 months--buyers will eventually go elsewhere where they can buy a new vehicle on the lot, today.

 

[13COBRA]

You have a closer eye on this than most of us, but remember--your view is primarily through Ford glasses.

There are other manufacturers that are already seeing their lots filling up.

If Ford can't get their shit together, and your inventory is spoken for, for the next 6 months--buyers will eventually go elsewhere where they can buy a new vehicle on the lot, today.

No, I agree with you. Definitely a single sided view.

It has a lot to do with the area too. In the Midwest, ALL of the dealers are struggling for inventory. The only people that have inventory are Carmax and some of the primarily used stores. I drive by storage lots of F-150s on a daily basis on my way in to work, it's depressing.

My wife's Expedition has been built for over a month, and not shipping because of the chip shortage.

Kia and Hyundai just experienced another multi-point loss in sales YOY (16% and 20% respectively). Hyundai just announced the 4th month in a row of 0 fleet sales.

 

[Weather Man]

You have a closer eye on this than most of us, but remember--your view is primarily through Ford glasses.

There are other manufacturers that are already seeing their lots filling up.

If Ford can't get their shit together, and your inventory is spoken for, for the next 6 months--buyers will eventually go elsewhere where they can buy a new vehicle on the lot, today.

Lots aren't filling up (new) around where I live. I drive by Mazda, Subaru, Chevy, GMC, Toyota, Honda, Ford, Volkswagen and Stellantis dealerships almost every day.

 

[Weather Man]

It is hard to see a bad recession with these numbers.

The March JOLTs numbers came in hot, with openings and number of quits at the highest levels of the surveys history.

"We are just shy of 2 vacancies for every unemployed worker," Indeed economist Nick Bunker tweeted. "There were 1.9 openings per unemployed person in March. Quits rate is still well above pre-pandemic rate, but not surging like it was last year. Workers' job security is still strong with the layoff rate just a bit above all-time lows."

 

[13COBRA]

It is hard to see a bad recession with these numbers.

The March JOLTs numbers came in hot, with openings and number of quits at the highest levels of the surveys history.

"We are just shy of 2 vacancies for every unemployed worker," Indeed economist Nick Bunker tweeted. "There were 1.9 openings per unemployed person in March. Quits rate is still well above pre-pandemic rate, but not surging like it was last year. Workers' job security is still strong with the layoff rate just a bit above all-time lows."

I would hire 7-8 employees today on the spot if I could find them.

I've spent $25k on Indeed this year alone with very minimal results. In typical years, I'd have hired 2-3x's more employees with the same spend.

 

[Weather Man]

I would hire 7-8 employees today on the spot if I could find them.

I've spent $25k on Indeed this year alone with very minimal results. In typical years, I'd have hired 2-3x's more employees with the same spend.

The trades are crying for new and begging their boomers not to retire around here.

 

[13COBRA]

The trades are crying for new and begging their boomers not to retire around here.

Oh for sure. In 10 years, we'll be in a depression because there won't be any trade workers.

 

[Weather Man]

Oh for sure. In 10 years, we'll be in a depression because there won't be any trade workers.

College has become so unaffordable, I am hoping that helps.

 

[gimmie11s]

No, I agree with you. Definitely a single sided view.

It has a lot to do with the area too. In the Midwest, ALL of the dealers are struggling for inventory. The only people that have inventory are Carmax and some of the primarily used stores. I drive by storage lots of F-150s on a daily basis on my way in to work, it's depressing.

My wife's Expedition has been built for over a month, and not shipping because of the chip shortage.

Kia and Hyundai just experienced another multi-point loss in sales YOY (16% and 20% respectively). Hyundai just announced the 4th month in a row of 0 fleet sales.

I don't understand Ford sometimes. When I ordered my Ram truck it was delivered to my dealer in 7 weeks. One way plane ticket to WA, drove home following weekend.

The notes about Kia and Hyundai are interesting. They are pretty big on auto rental lots (National, Hertz, etc).

 

[13COBRA]

College has become so unaffordable, I am hoping that helps.

College can become as unaffordable as they want it to be. Student loans are easier and easier to get.

 

[13COBRA]

I don't understand Ford sometimes. When I ordered my Ram truck it was delivered to my dealer in 7 weeks. One way plane ticket to WA, drove home following weekend.

The notes about Kia and Hyundai are interesting. They are pretty big on auto rental lots (National, Hertz, etc).

I don't think it's because Ford doesn't want to produce the vehicles haha

When the pandemic started Stellantis was the only manufacturer of the big 3 to not lessen their parts orders significantly, they kept their current orders in check. Ford and GM had/have to play catch up.

Kia and Hyundai are HUGE rental company manufacturers. Ford is as well, and Ford isn't producing cars for them either.

 

[Tezz500]

Q1 the GDP contracted... if it does it again Q2--which we have only 2 more months to go--we'll be in textbook recession.

I do think there is pent-up demand in some commodity markets that will keep some industries busy through the summer into Q4, but we are all going to be shocked with how full dealer lots magically become over the next 12-18 months.

I’m excited. Our rate is locked in, our house price is locked in, we’re debt free otherwise. The markets taking a giant shit…

Perfect timing.

 

[Tezz500]

I don't think so. 85% of my incoming inventory over the next 6 months is already sold. Most of the other 15% will be sold before it arrives.

Stock orders are a way back seat to retail orders. Until there are weeks of lesser and lesser retail orders, we won't see stock units getting built.

You don’t think that’s gonna change when the market constricts and people tighten the belt loop?

You don’t think that’s gonna change when the Chip shortage BS goes away?

Not trolling. Honest questions.

I personally see dealerships getting RAILED in the near future. They’re gonna be tossing hookers through bedroom windows screaming “check out these deals on this new F150!”

 

[13COBRA]

You don’t think that’s gonna change when the market constricts and people tighten the belt loop?

You don’t think that’s gonna change when the Chip shortage BS goes away?

Not trolling. Honest questions.

I personally see dealerships getting RAILED in the near future. They’re gonna be tossing hookers through bedroom windows screaming “check out these deals on this new F150!”

It will most definitely slow down, at some point. But like I mentioned, it'll be when the ordering starts slowing down and stock units are being built again. We aren't there yet.

 

[ford fanatic]

College has become so unaffordable, I am hoping that helps.

They want you to borrow more, then dangle that "debt forgiveness" carrot in your face, that will never come....

 

[Tezz500]

It is hard to see a bad recession with these numbers.

The March JOLTs numbers came in hot, with openings and number of quits at the highest levels of the surveys history.

"We are just shy of 2 vacancies for every unemployed worker," Indeed economist Nick Bunker tweeted. "There were 1.9 openings per unemployed person in March. Quits rate is still well above pre-pandemic rate, but not surging like it was last year. Workers' job security is still strong with the layoff rate just a bit above all-time lows."

I got myself and two others jobs at my new company. Wanna know why that happened?

Better opportunity.

The writing was on the wall. They were selling the plant to a hedge fund, benefits have since been slashed. Pension vaporized from the previous job when the new company took over, OT was immediately cut, wages froze, staffing was cut by 20%.

Since then they have lost nearly 90% of the Operations staff and 30% of the maintenance crew.

While at the same time, I’ve increased my yearly pay by over 30k and work 45% LESS OT than I did at the last place.

I have a pension, fantastic Medical 401k etc etc.

Some companies understand, that if you treat people right and offer them very competitive wages/benefits… you’ll attract superior talent.

Being Union doesn’t hurt either.

 

[Tezz500]

College has become so unaffordable, I am hoping that helps.

College is cancer. Get in an apprenticeship and you’re set for life. FACTS.

 

[Tezz500]

It will most definitely slow down, at some point. But like I mentioned, it'll be when the ordering starts slowing down and stock units are being built again. We aren't there yet.

Estimate a time line on that?

My guts telling me we’re not far off… a year maybe 2?

 

[tistan]

I would hire 7-8 employees today on the spot if I could find them.

I've spent $25k on Indeed this year alone with very minimal results. In typical years, I'd have hired 2-3x's more employees with the same spend.

Do you think that is because of the overall reputation of car dealers? I sold cars for a year and there was a lot to dislike about the industry. Especially the secretive pay calculations.