Current New Vehicle Market

Weather Man

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The local Chevy dealer is filling up the front work truck for sale lot and shrinking the amount on the back storage lot. Parts must be coming in.
 

598

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Pulling home from a race this weekend and noticed again how full all the RV dealers' inventory is. Add 5.60 diesel and I have to wonder if a drop in the old Dow will be enough to shut down the Johnny Q public buying appetite for all kinds of things that cost money after the sale, like big fancy pickups. Time will tell, but if the FED dials up the rhetoric along with rates in a couple days, supply/demand might shift a whole lot quicker than some think.
 

jvandy50

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Yep, fairly common.
Yep, brief search of broncos and I’ve not found one below 10k markup. Do you by chance know what the wait is on ordering one? Guessing it varies, but figure if anyone knew, you would
 

13COBRA

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Yep, brief search of broncos and I’ve not found one below 10k markup. Do you by chance know what the wait is on ordering one? Guessing it varies, but figure if anyone knew, you would

I'd guess 9 months, ish.
 

Tezz500

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But why is the question? These ridiculous shortages of everything are really screwing things up.

Just across the way from me is several huge housing developments. I’m curious to see how those play out. It’s the big time builder companies. But and this area will has a massively high demand for homes… but I gotta think home prices are gonna take a shit nationwide and probably will dip abit here as well…

Will they still need all those workers?
 

13COBRA

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Just across the way from me is several huge housing developments. I’m curious to see how those play out. It’s the big time builder companies. But and this area will has a massively high demand for homes… but I gotta think home prices are gonna take a shit nationwide and probably will dip abit here as well…

Will they still need all those workers?

They have to start slowing down. They have to.

My neighbors just sold for $100k more than I bought my house for last October...mine is bigger, newer and more upgrades.

A builder down the street just sold a new house for $260/ft, I gave $171.
 

Blk04L

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I think with the rise in interest rates the builders may have to start offering reduced or paid off closing costs as a short term solution.
Houses are still in short supply in FL, but now with the interest rates in the mid 5%s for 30 year fixed, and pricing at an all time high something has to give to get people to "afford" the house.
 

me32

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But why is the question? These ridiculous shortages of everything are really screwing things up.
Domino effect. Supply chain issues are why some companies have gone under water. Rising rates will effect the home selling and buying. Will hit the auto market too. Lots of people refi to take money out and bought toys or home upgrades. Very similar trend as the 2005 boom. Stock market and crypto markets taking big hits too.
 

gimmie11s

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Pulling home from a race this weekend and noticed again how full all the RV dealers' inventory is. Add 5.60 diesel and I have to wonder if a drop in the old Dow will be enough to shut down the Johnny Q public buying appetite for all kinds of things that cost money after the sale, like big fancy pickups. Time will tell, but if the FED dials up the rhetoric along with rates in a couple days, supply/demand might shift a whole lot quicker than some think.

Q1 the GDP contracted... if it does it again Q2--which we have only 2 more months to go--we'll be in textbook recession.

I do think there is pent-up demand in some commodity markets that will keep some industries busy through the summer into Q4, but we are all going to be shocked with how full dealer lots magically become over the next 12-18 months.
 

Weather Man

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Q1 the GDP contracted... if it does it again Q2--which we have only 2 more months to go--we'll be in textbook recession.

I do think there is pent-up demand in some commodity markets that will keep some industries busy through the summer into Q4, but we are all going to be shocked with how full dealer lots magically become over the next 12-18 months.

I'll be relieved when dealers have inventory on the lot.
 

Weather Man

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The employee churn is real and that means wage inflation still on fire.

Job openings hit all-time high of 11.549M in March; quits rise to high of 4.5M

May 03, 2022 10:02 AM ET4 Comments
  • 11.549M March Job Openings vs. 11.27M consensus and M prior (revised from 11.266M).
  • Job openings rate 7.1% vs. 7% prior.
  • On the last business day of March, the number of job openings was little changed at 11.5 million, the highest level in the history of the series which began in December 2000.
  • The quits rate rose to 3%, with the number of quits at 4.5M, another all-time high.
  • Retail trade posted a big rise in job openings.
  • Retail, hospitality and professional services saw a large quits numbers.
 

q6543

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It looks like carvana and vroom are on their way to bankruptcy.

Imagine all their inventory flooding auctions.
Screenshot_20220501-175357_TradingView.jpg
 

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