Current New Vehicle Market

[Blk04L]

Those prices are nuts.

Haven't seen anything too crazy yet around here except for the usual specialty market such as the Raptors, GT500, Corvettes etc... That being said I don't think I've even seen a new Bronco(thats not a demo)/F450 on a lot, so...

Local dealers are selling Expeditions for a few grand under MSRP last I checked. Far cry from when I bought ours and it started at 10k off MSRP.

 

[Russo]

What was the VIN on your Santa Fe? Just curious, I'd like to throw out a number on what I would give for it and see what they gave.

KM8SRDHF3FU099165

 

[VRYALT3R3D]

@Klaus

Maybe, maybe not. Cars are financed assets. Pricing is determined by the cost of capital required to finance them. It will not take much of a move in rates or unemployment to decimate demand.

Unemployment is going down, rates are going up.

Rising costs to consumers will not "decimate" demand for vehicles. The supply issue overrides all.

According to KBB, the ATP hit a record high of ~$45k. Likewise, incentive spending by manufacturers are at their lowest level in years. People aren't even requesting longer terms. You know why? Because their trade-ins are worth significantly more than a year ago.

A rate hike won't cause manufacturers to boost incentives or customers at dealerships to rethink a purchase. A first move of interest rates definitely won't cause anything to happen because the supply is so tight. It would take multiple rate moves before incentive spending changes. Otherwise there is no impetus to change incentive spending. There is enough excess demand.

Why is this relevant?

Automakers are prioritizing semiconductors for high-margin vehicles.

Is "return on sales profit" some kind of Canadian metric?

Operating profit margin.

Well, if s carmaker said it you KNOW its true.

In other news, the Cookie Monster says "Cookies are good."

It is absolutely true. The business model is changing. Try and keep up.

 

[13COBRA]

KM8SRDHF3FU099165

$16,400.

 

[matab14]

Wife and I have been waiting now about 6 weeks for a Traverse we bought new to be delivered from the factory to the dealer. It's allegedly done and built and been labeled "In Transit" all this time. It's slightly frustrating but no one else seems to physically have one either...…So hard to get to mad, plus as other have noted, gave really good price for trade in. Here's to hoping for maybe next week.

 

[13COBRA]

Wife and I have been waiting now about 6 weeks for a Traverse we bought new to be delivered from the factory to the dealer. It's allegedly done and built and been labeled "In Transit" all this time. It's slightly frustrating but no one else seems to physically have one either...…So hard to get to mad, plus as other have noted, gave really good price for trade in. Here's to hoping for maybe next week.

It's tough. The transportation companies lost 30% of their workforce last year, and they haven't come back. We're seeing about a 220% increase in "In Transit" times compared to 2019.

 

[BlueSnake01]

New cars are actually being sold in certain areas for under or at MSRP around me now, the issue is there are next to none at big dealerships.

Weeks back, they were going for 5-10k over MSRP for a simple a car.

Im still considering selling my wife's ATS, Carvana is giving me 21+k, that was more than what I bought the car 4 years ago.

 

[89 turbo Fox]

I bought a new 22' Denali 3500HD dually diesel for 12% under MSRP 3 weeks ago.

 

[gimmie11s]

Rising costs to consumers will not "decimate" demand for vehicles. The supply issue overrides all.

According to KBB, the ATP hit a record high of ~$45k. Likewise, incentive spending by manufacturers are at their lowest level in years. People aren't even requesting longer terms. You know why? Because their trade-ins are worth significantly more than a year ago.

A rate hike won't cause manufacturers to boost incentives or customers at dealerships to rethink a purchase. A first move of interest rates definitely won't cause anything to happen because the supply is so tight. It would take multiple rate moves before incentive spending changes. Otherwise there is no impetus to change incentive spending. There is enough excess demand.



Automakers are prioritizing semiconductors for high-margin vehicles.



Operating profit margin.



It is absolutely true. The business model is changing. Try and keep up.

You take his name out of all the quotes for what?... hoping he doesnt see?

 

[gimmie11s]

I bought a new 22' Denali 3500HD dually diesel for 12% under MSRP 3 weeks ago.

Buddy just bought a DRW Ram 3500 yesterday for about the same.. believe he was 11.5% off MSRP. Was just over $10k off sticker.

 

[BrianSpilner]

The market will correct. When? We don't know, but soon would be nice! Same with the housing market

 

[VRYALT3R3D]

You take his name out of all the quotes for what?... hoping he doesnt see?

I highlighted his comments and used the quote function. I guess that dropped his name for some reason. No worries, I tagged him in the post now

 

[T56LS102]

The crack smoking continues...

 

[SolarYellow]

Maybe, maybe not. Cars are financed assets. Pricing is determined by the cost of capital required to finance them. It will not take much of a move in rates or unemployment to decimate demand.

Unemployment is going down, rates are going up.

Never ever sell the average American short when it comes to stupidity.

 

[Weather Man]

The crack smoking continues...
View attachment 1731334

No wonder Tesla is selling all the EV's they can in Cally.

 

[Klaus]

@13COBRA

Alright homie, I like your confidence that new car prices will never fall. I have a wager for you. I will bet you that at some point in the next 3 years new car prices will be lower than they are now.

“New car prices” in this instance will be measured as the Consumer Price Index for New Vehicles. This is how the Fed measures auto prices. When you hear the term “inflation” what it means is the change in value of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The New Vehicles in US Average is the line item within CPI that measures auto prices.

Here is a description and calculation:

Price change

The price used in the index is an estimated transaction price based on sales for the model over the past 30 days. Prices are collected for the base price, destination charge, options, dealer preparation charges, and applicable taxes. Averages are then estimated to adjust the price for markups, dealer concession or discounts, and consumer rebates. Finance charges are excluded from the price, and any incentives associated with low-interest financing are excluded from the discount or rebate amount.

The basic formula for the total transaction price used in calculating the new vehicles price index is:

Base price of new vehicle + transportation to dealer + total price of packages & options + dealer prep and miscellaneous charges + additional dealer markup – dealer concession or discount - rebate +applicable non-sales tax = total transaction price

Here is the site that tracks this information. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: New Vehicles in U.S. City Average

It is calculated monthly with data going back to 1947. The index as of November 2021 was 164.511.

So here is the bet:

If within the next 36 months this falls below 164.511 you will pay @sid $500 and sell me a car of my choosing at dealer cost.

If within the next 36 months this does not fall below 164.511 I will pay @sid $500.

Deal?

 

[13COBRA]

So, you want me to bet that over the next three years, it won't drop at all? Psh.

There hasn't been a 3 year period in 25 years where it didn't drop at one point. I'm not going to take a bet where there are 4,380 days that all I need is for one point to move, and I lose. I could be right 4,379 days, and still lose the bet. lol

 

[BlueSnake01]

The crack smoking continues...
View attachment 1731334

Hmmm New BMW X7 or Trailblazer.....

 

[Klaus]

Rising costs to consumers will not "decimate" demand for vehicles. The supply issue overrides all.

LOL sure thing homie. So when you get laid off the first thing that you are going to do is buy a new car because "supply overrides all."

A rate hike won't cause manufacturers to boost incentives or customers at dealerships to rethink a purchase.

A rate hike increases the cost of capital for banks. As cost of capital increases marginal loan origination falls. Dipshits that could get financed when cost of capital was marginally lower can no longer get financed. Because they cannot get financed they cannot buy the things that they would buy when they could get financed. Sales fall. As sales fall incentives increase. Prices fall. This is basic shit.

And by the way this is the reason that the Fed increases rates. To slow down economic activity in an attempt to contain inflation. Which BTW inflation is just a fancy way of saying "too much money and not enough things to buy." So when you hear that the Fed is raising rates think "the Fed wants people to buy less stuff."

 

[Klaus]

So, you want me to bet that over the next three years, it won't drop at all? Psh.

There hasn't been a 3 year period in 25 years where it didn't drop at one point. I'm not going to take a bet where there are 4,380 days that all I need is for one point to move, and I lose. I could be right 4,379 days, and still lose the bet. lol

So when you type "prices will not fall" what you really mean is "prices will fall?"