Current New Vehicle Market

[VRYALT3R3D]

Did you see GM signed an exclusive contract with Global Foundries to fulfill their needs? I expect more of the same.

Exclusive contract? Ford is also working with Global Foundries.

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/11/18/globalfoundries-ford-auto-chip-supply.html

Securing more chips is one thing, reducing the number of unique microcontrollers is another. GM is hoping to reduce that build complexity by 95%. Meanwhile Ford is also working with Global Foundries to focus on new designs for ADAS, AVs, and battery management. These systems are not cheap and this additional capacity only satisfies old, outdated chip designs.

 

[noco5.0]

If people don't think our economy is permanently changed as a result of the last two years I think you're nuts. People aren't going back to five days a week in cube farms and I don't think they will ever produce a huge over supply of cars year after year. If a big chunk of middle class workers are commuting less that's going to lower demand also so who knows what car prices will do.

 

[cobracide]

I'm not saying that's the ONLY thing driving the stock. That's one of them.

Go ahead, dispute the first two points with facts. I'll wait.

Nice twist. You validate nothing and have me try and prove the converse. I have already discussed #1 - stock price has little correlation with your "just in time ordering" nirvana. The market is more interested in the EV aspect of Ford. #2 - current used car prices... I've already addressed that. The current market is not part of your argument - it is the future car pricing will never go a buyers market.

 

[Klaus]

View attachment 1731232

I do not think that you realize that you are making the opposite point that you think that you are making.

 

[Klaus]

Here are home prices through Sept 2006. A lot of people thought they could never go down.

Here is what home prices looked like from 2006 through 2012..........

 

[13COBRA]

Nice twist. You validate nothing and have me try and prove the converse. I have already discussed #1 - stock price has little correlation with your "just in time ordering" nirvana. The market is more interested in the EV aspect of Ford. #2 - current used car prices... I've already addressed that. The current market is not part of your argument - it is the future car pricing will never go a buyers market.

I never once said it would never be a buyers market.

I'm saying that the prices (relative prices) of vehicles WILL NOT DECREASE.

Here are home prices through Sept 2006. A lot of people thought they could never go down.

View attachment 1731234

Here is what home prices looked like from 2006 through 2012..........

View attachment 1731235

Yep, you're right.

The current automobile market is similar in some areas, but also so very different. The housing market crashed because of over-lending. The auto industry is wild because of a TRUE shortage (of everything). We're not even to the point where they're making up ground yet, yet every day that passes inflation because a greater obstacle to overcome to return to what once was.

Again, I'm all ears for a wager with a timeline of it returning to what it was.

Sent from my Potato

 

[Klaus]

You and others are assuming i/people in my camp disagree on manufactures intentions. We do not. I agree that is what Ford and others want to do.

Have you ever been on a publicly-traded company's quarterly earnings call? What they want/say they are going to do is often times VASTLY different than what they actually do. Why? Because of market conditions and general laws of supply/demand.

No shit, right? "It was in a press release from the guys that make money when you buy their shit, so you KNOW its going to happen." LOL

 

[Bullitt1448]

Anyone that thinks house prices can’t go down is only trying to fool themselves into a a false sense of security, Prices have been steadily increasing for at least the last decade but that does not mean it will continue forever, like every other market, prices are cyclical.

 

[gimmie11s]

Here are home prices through Sept 2006. A lot of people thought they could never go down.

View attachment 1731234

Here is what home prices looked like from 2006 through 2012..........

View attachment 1731235

You hit the nail on the head earlier in the thread when you stated a basic recession would reset things.

Looking at your graphs above, anyone know what happened in 2007? I cant seem to figure out why prices dropped like that? lol

 

[gimmie11s]

I'm saying that the prices (relative prices) of vehicles WILL NOT DECREASE.Yep, you're right.

The current automobile market is similar in some areas, but also so very different. The housing market crashed because of over-lending. The auto industry is wild because of a TRUE shortage (of everything). We're not even to the point where they're making up ground yet, yet every day that passes inflation because a greater obstacle to overcome to return to what once was.

The automobile market is immune to economic recession? Interesting.

Your assertion that the average price of a new car today (somewhere around $42k) will never again fall below that number?

You cant be serious.

 

[blk02edge]

Holy shit.
A fortune teller!

Quick! What's tonight's winning lotto numbers?

6969+58kotd

 

[SolarYellow]

If people don't think our economy is permanently changed as a result of the last two years I think your nuts. People aren't going back to five days a week in cube farms and I don't think they will ever produce a huge over supply of cars year after year. If a big chunk of middle class workers are commuting less that's going to lower demand also so who knows what car prices will do.

Lets see how many dealerships weather the storm of an extremely bottle necked supply that doesn't look to be ending.

 

[crazy4life]

I never once said it would never be a buyers market.

I'm saying that the prices (relative prices) of vehicles WILL NOT DECREASE.

Have no idea what this means. It's like saying the cost of a cheeseburger will go up in 5 years. Hard to believe but a pretty safe bet.

 

[VegasMichael]

Have leasing prices risen in line with new/used car prices?

 

[598]

MF'er knows how to put on a case, that is for sure. If he wasnt filthy rich from Private Equity, or whatever it is he does, he should have been a lawyer.

Tomorrow isnt Friday, is it? lmao

You guys talking about that fork lift driver?

 

[13COBRA]

Have leasing prices risen in line with new/used car prices?

Yes.

Residual on my wife's 2021 Expedition Limited was 67%. Residual on her 2022 that's coming in is 72%.

 

[GTSpartan]

Let's see what happens to the car market next time annualized sales drop to the 12-15 million range, or lower for more than a year and people are losing their houses. The OEM's (especially the domestics) will freak out and beg people to buy their stuff.

 

[13COBRA]

 

[crazy4life]

View attachment 1731247

Nice chart. I like this one better. Even if the forecast is true there will be 2 million less vehicles sold in 2022 then there were in 2019. If the economy takes a giant shit they will be lucky to sell 10 million cars. Guess it helps to have big dreams I guess. But that is exactly what they are dreams.

 

[13COBRA]

Nice chart. I like this one better. Even if the forecast is true there will be 2 million less vehicles sold in 2022 then there were in 2019. If the economy takes a giant shit they will be lucky to sell 10 million cars. Guess it helps to have big dreams I guess. But that is exactly what they are dreams.

I'll gladly settle for another 2021

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