Correct. I'm a reservoir engineer for a living, so know a couple things about this. 2008 was the first year of increasing year on year production in the US since the 70's (predicted as peak hydrocarbon production rate, see Hubbert's Peak), this is primarily due to shale/unconvential natural gas.
As recent as 3-4 months ago, we were testing the upper limits of demand in the US (look at supply #'s, i.e. imports/exports vs. demand/consumption #'s).
The thing that's driving gasoline prices is Iran's sabre rattling, which ironically, is in their best interest to do. And like Chris said, speculation. Realistically though, the threat is small because other OPEC countries have spare capacity to alleviate a non-exporting Iran. Additionally, Iran needs the money it gets from oil to supply all of its programs, including nuclear. Thus why we're hitting them hard with sanctions.
China has abundant shale gas resources, and is getting into plays around the world. Most folks don't even comprehend the orders of magnitude of this stuff. In 2010, the United States consumed 24.5 TCF of gas (EIA website). The Marcellus shale in NE United States is predicted to have up to 4 Quads, a term that wasn't even around when I started studying petroleum engineering. 4 Quads = 4,000 TCF of gas. And that's only in one asset/field... what about Bakken, Eagleford, Haynesville, Fayetteville, etc.
Sorry about the tangent, but it really is mind-boggling, if only government was more willing to work with industry than against. If you want to know more, check out the documentary called spOILed, a rebuttal to the popular "Gasland". Also can look into the books "The Prize" and "The Quest" by Daniel Yergin.
I'm still getting a 2013
and won't worry about the gas price.
