Lotto Probability Question

[IveGotTheBlues]

So, since everyone knows the Mega Millions is high and there are a lot of math minded people on the forum..

I got into a debate about calculation the odds of winning if you purchase multiple tickets.

Of course there are assumptions:

Let's say, for ease of calculation, odds of 1 ticket winning are 1:1 Million. The 1 million represents all possible number combinations.

Also, each ticket purchased, represents a distinct number combination.

If odds of winning with 1 ticket = 1/1,000,000 and I buy 82 tickets, what are my odds of winning?


A: 82/1,000,000 => 1/12,195

B: 82/999,918

C: They don't change

D: Something else

 

[BlownAway05]

82/1,000,000

Only 1 combination wins it. Each ticket (assuming each ticket has a different combination) gives you a chance to get the winning combination so you could think of it as 1/1,000,000 + 1/1,000,000 + 1/1,000,000 + ...... 82 times

Unfortunately the odds for the Mega Millions is a hell of a lot worse than 1/1,000,000

 

[05slvrgt]

What he said^. The odds of winning are 56x55x54x53x52x46 = 1/21,085,384,320. There are 56 numbers for the first 5 and 46 for the powerball.

 

[BlownAway05]

What he said^. The odds of winning are 56x55x54x53x52x46 = 1/21,085,384,320. There are 56 numbers for the first 5 and 46 for the powerball.

Actually that isn't quite correct. Odds are 1 out of 175,711,536. You are forgetting that the first 5 numbers do not need to be gotten in a special order, so the math is not 1/56 * 1/55 * 1/54 ... and so on.

The math looks like this: 5/56 * 4/55 * 3/54 * 2/53 * 1/52 * 1/46(powerball).

This is because you have 5 chances to select that first ball (it can be any of the first 5 numbers), 4 chances to select the 2nd ball (and one less ball to select from as the first ball is out of the pot), 3 chances to select the 3rd.... and so on.

 

[LUBaseball2]

basically youre more likely to be bit by a shark and struck by lightning in the same day

 

[Camaro_94]

Im going to win it. I think the odds are in my favor.

 

[jpro]

Actually that isn't quite correct. Odds are 1 out of 175,711,536. You are forgetting that the first 5 numbers do not need to be gotten in a special order, so the math is not 1/56 * 1/55 * 1/54 ... and so on.

The math looks like this: 5/56 * 4/55 * 3/54 * 2/53 * 1/52 * 1/46(powerball).

This is because you have 5 chances to select that first ball (it can be any of the first 5 numbers), 4 chances to select the 2nd ball (and one less ball to select from as the first ball is out of the pot), 3 chances to select the 3rd.... and so on.

So if the cash value is over $400 million, can't you just borrow $176 million and play all possible combinations? That way you will win!

I know, I know...if someone else plays the same numbers you split with them and you lose money. Also, I don't know many people who have $176 million lying around.

 

[BearsFTW18]

So if the cash value is over $400 million, can't you just borrow $176 million and play all possible combinations? That way you will win!

I know, I know...if someone else plays the same numbers you split with them and you lose money. Also, I don't know many people who have $176 million lying around.

If that were possible....and I was Bill Gates....I would do that just to troll the entire country.

 

[cobrakidz]

All I know is that the odds get worse as the prize money gets higher, so I only play when it's low. Either way I am not going to win, but it gives me more hope.

 

[Uncle Meat]

The estimated jackpot now stands at 500 million! The cash payout would be 359 million.

U.M.

 

[F8LBITEva]

Id be happy as a pig in shit if I won that.

 

[BearsFTW18]

Id be happy as a pig in shit if I won that.

I'd be afraid I'd have a heart attack and die when I heard the news.

 

[Planter]

too much math; dr

 

[ff500]

I don't think the odds change in your favor regardless of how many tickets you buy, if you're gonna win you're gonna win.

I know 2 people who have hit the lottery, one hit for 10 million, he was 19 at the time. The other was a housekeeper for a client I was doing electrical work for, she hit for 179 million. I had the first 5 numbers on a 12 million dollar jackpot once.

 

[DAVESVT2000]

The estimated jackpot now stands at 500 million! The cash payout would be 359 million.

U.M.

Ok, now it's worth playing :burn:

I'll probably buy $10 worth over the next day or two.

 

[bleedout]

you would be better off finding a bum in a dark alley and giving him $3 to kick you in the balls..... then carry on your eve, or save your money.:beer:

 

[BearsFTW18]

you would be better off finding a bum in a dark alley and giving him $3 to kick you in the balls..... then carry on your eve, or save your money.:beer:

SOMEONE has to win. Everyone has the same odds. It's only $1. It's all chance. $1 is worth that chance.

 

[cbr repsol]

I don't think the odds change in your favor regardless of how many tickets you buy, if you're gonna win you're gonna win.

I know 2 people who have hit the lottery, one hit for 10 million, he was 19 at the time. The other was a housekeeper for a client I was doing electrical work for, she hit for 179 million. I had the first 5 numbers on a 12 million dollar jackpot once.

my grandfather hit for 80k when i was 15 years old.

Id be happy as a pig in shit if I won that.

me too

Im going to win it. I think the odds are in my favor.

this

 

[Sonic Snake]

All I know is that the odds get worse as the prize money gets higher, so I only play when it's low. Either way I am not going to win, but it gives me more hope.

Regardless of how many people play, there are still a finite number of ways to win ~176 million. I would think that the only thing that goes up is the chance that you may have to share your winnings with those that had the winning numbers too.

 

[05slvrgt]

Actually that isn't quite correct. Odds are 1 out of 175,711,536. You are forgetting that the first 5 numbers do not need to be gotten in a special order, so the math is not 1/56 * 1/55 * 1/54 ... and so on.

The math looks like this: 5/56 * 4/55 * 3/54 * 2/53 * 1/52 * 1/46(powerball).

This is because you have 5 chances to select that first ball (it can be any of the first 5 numbers), 4 chances to select the 2nd ball (and one less ball to select from as the first ball is out of the pot), 3 chances to select the 3rd.... and so on.

Good catch. I don't play the lottery at all and always thought the numbers had to appear in a certain order.