Frying Pan Into the Fire -- Chip Shortage

Weather Man

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That Mannheim Index!!!!!!!!!!!!!​

Chip shortage continues to hit autos - Ford idles plant, Toyota hints at missing guide

TM -1.09%Jan. 18, 2022 11:14 AM ET17 Comments
  • The well publicized chip shortage has been a headwind across the auto sector for months; however, shortages appear to be cutting deeper, with Toyota (NYSE:TM) out today talking down production expectations, while Ford (NYSE:F) idles another plant as a result of the shortage.
  • In 2019, Toyota produced 10.7m cars, as a result of the chip shortage, the company guided to 9.3m cars in 2021; however, Toyota was forced to cut guidance further to 9.0m cars in September -- today executive Kazunari Kamakura indicated that hitting the 9.0m car guide will be "extremely difficult" and that the company could not predict how long the chip shortage would last.
  • Earlier in the year, Ford (F) idled several factories on the back of a semiconductor chip shortage; today a spokesman indicated that the company will idle the Flat Rock, Michigan assembly plant for a week, as shortages continue to curtail production capacity.
  • European vehicle production fell to a 30-year low in 2021 (OTCPK:VWAGY) as producers struggled to overcome the semiconductor shortage; paired with falling production in the US, vehicle prices (new and used) have accelerated higher at an unprecedented pace.
  • As we enter 2022, all eyes are focused on the chip manufacturers (NASDAQ:INTC) (NYSE:TSM) (NASDAQ:MU) for indications of relief from the supply crunch.
 

Weather Man

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Intel is spending at least $20B on chip manufacturing in Ohio

INTC -2.95%Jan. 21, 2022 4:18 AM ET10 Comments
  • Seeking to restore its edge in chipmaking technology, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has announced a whopping $20B investment for a massive new manufacturing facility near Columbus, Ohio. The company will build at least two semiconductor fabrication plants, or fabs, on the 1,000-acre site, though it has the option to eventually expand it to 2,000 acres and up to eight fabs. Construction will begin this year and the plant should be operational by 2025.
  • Quote: "Our expectation is that this becomes the largest silicon manufacturing location on the planet," Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger told Time magazine. "We helped to establish the Silicon Valley. Now we're going to do the Silicon Heartland."
  • The investment plans come as the U.S. pushes to increase domestic manufacturing of semiconductors. Entire industries like auto manufacturing have been crippled over the past two years due to shortages, prompting the Senate to pass the $52B CHIPS for America Act in June, though it still needs to make its way through the House. According to the Semiconductor Industry Association, the share of chips made in the U.S. has fallen to 12%, from 37% in 1990.
  • Go deeper: It'll be tough restarting the chip manufacturing drive in America, where it costs 30% more to build and operate a fab over 10 years than it does in Taiwan, South Korea or Singapore. Moreover, Intel's chips made in U.S. will initially be sent to Asia for assembly, packaging and testing, though it hopes to bring everything back to the U.S. if the CHIPS for America Act gets funded. "My objective would be sand to product to services, all on American soil," Gelsinger declared, adding that the sand used to make semiconductors comes from the U.S. South.
  • Other efforts: Intel previously announced a $20B investment to build two fabs in Arizona, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) also earmarked $12B to build a semiconductor plant in the state and Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) is dishing out $17B for a chip plant in Texas. Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) and Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) have also recently unveiled investment plans, while GlobalFoundries (NASDAQ:GFS) is building a smaller fab in upstate New York.
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Weather Man

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Toyota halts production at 11 plants due to parts crunch from COVID-19​

Production in January will be reduced by 47,000 vehicles​

Associated Press

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The shortage of parts caused by the coronavirus pandemic is further denting production at Toyota, Japan’s top automaker.

Production at 11 plants in Japan will be halted Friday, Saturday and next Monday, Toyota Motor Corp. said.
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That comes on top of reductions planned for February that were announced earlier. Those reduction will be on various days at eight of its 14 plants in Japan, including assembly lines making the Prius hybrid and Lexus luxury models.
Supplies are running short because of a lack of computer chips, which are crucial in auto parts. Plants in and out of Japan have undergone lockdowns and stoppages related to COVID-19 measures. Toyota has not given details.
Production in January will be reduced by 47,000 vehicles, when accounting for the latest changes, according to Toyota. For the fiscal year through March, production will now fall short of the 9 million vehicles the automaker had targeted, despite healthy demand for Toyota offerings. All manufacturers are scrambling to secure the tight chips supply, worsening the crunch, Toyota said.
"We are doing our utmost to deliver our vehicles to our customers as soon as possible," it said in a statement. "We deeply apologize."
TOYOTA CUTTING PRODUCTION IN FEBRUARY DUE TO SEMICONDUCTOR SHORTAGE

Toyota has periodically released information about COVID-19 among its workers. Toyota said four workers at a line at Tsutsumi plant in Toyota city, Aichi prefecture, became sick, so it was shut down. Earlier in the week, 14 workers tested positive at another line at the same factory, shutting down daytime operations for four days.
The pandemic has disrupted not only the auto sector but various areas, including shipping, the oil supply and meat packing, serving as a reminder of the connectivity of the world and the importance of the humblest worker.
LEXUS GOING ALL-ELECTRIC IN TOYOTA'S $70B ELECTRIFICATION PLAN
Matteo Fini, vice president, who analyzes auto supply chains and technology for IHS Markit, said supply problems aren’t expected to go away for some time, and they are serious, costing manufacturers as much as $50 million a week.
 

Weather Man

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Ford's Flat Rock Assembly Plant down this week due to chip shortage​

Jordyn Grzelewski
The Detroit News

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Ford Motor Co.'s Flat Rock Assembly Plant is taking downtime this week due to supply-chain issues related to the global semiconductor shortage, the Dearborn automaker said Tuesday.
The plant, which builds the Ford Mustang, is scheduled to resume production next week, according to a company spokesperson.
The production cut is just the latest signal that the shortage of the crucial component that powers many of the automated and electronic features in vehicles will continue to be a challenge more than a year after it started.
 

CobraBob

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2022 is looking to be a continuation of what we saw in 2021, auto production wise due to chip challenges. Biden spoke today about addressing our dependency on China manufacturing, and the problems we have today as a result of sending so much of our manufacturing offshore. Duh!! I've said for years that this tremendous loss of manufacturing in the U.S. would one day hurt us big time.
 

Weather Man

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General Motors trades lower despite confident outlook for 2022​

Feb. 01, 2022 4:30 PM ETGeneral Motors Company (GM)By: Clark Schultz, SA News Editor


GM CEO outlook: "With an improving outlook for semiconductors in the U.S. and China, we expect our 2022 results will remain strong. In fact, we expect our EBIT-adjusted earnings to remain at or near record levels in the range of $13 billion — $15 billion, all while investing more year over year in our growth businesses like Cruise, BrightDrop and our rapidly accelerating portfolio of electric vehicles."
 

SecondhandSnake

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2022 is looking to be a continuation of what we saw in 2021, auto production wise due to chip challenges.

But Biden said it would all be over and back to normal by now! /s

And pretty wild how they're idling plants, volumes are down double digit percentages, hemorrhaging money on new EV work, and still posting record EBIT numbers. What does that tell you? Not a good time to be a consumer.
 

Weather Man

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Ford CFO on Fox Business says chip shortage easing 2nd half 2022. Forecasts 10-15% volume increase over 2021. Raw material inflation and upcoming UAW contract with UAW seeing strong Ford balance sheet mean continued upward pressure on vehicle prices.
 

Weather Man

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Overall vehicle production was dramatically reduced in 2021 because of the chip shortage. According to Jeff Schuster, president of the Americas operation and global vehicle forecasting at LMC Automotive,"Ford was hit the hardest and they were hit early." This is because it had several super-high-profile launches, including a redesigned F-150. According to Schuster, the Blue Oval missed out on an estimated 1.25 million units last year.

But Ford wasn't the only automaker to stumble. Volkswagen fell short of planned production by around 1.15 million vehicles, GM and Toyota were both out about 1.1 million and Stellantis came up short by around 1 million units. But not all companies were affected equally. "As a group, I would say the Japanese and Korean OEMs were a little more insulated," noted Schuster. They're closer to China, where many chips are made. This is why Chinese manufacturers felt less impact than their global competition.

According to a study released by the US Department of Commerce, the median inventory of computer chips held by consumers -- like automakers and medical device manufacturers -- fell from 40 days in 2019 to less than 5 in 2021. The implications of this are dire. "If a COVID outbreak, a natural disaster or political instability disrupts a foreign semiconductor facility for even just a few weeks, it has the potential to shut down a manufacturing facility in the US, putting American workers and their families at risk," the report noted, a danger that isn't lost on car companies.

 

Fat Boss

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It's pretty clear it's going to be well into 2023 AT LEAST before the chip market is back to normal. The demands from 5G, A.I., Automotive, and Machine Learning are just a few of the drivers that are hitting on all cylinders right now.
 

Weather Man

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It's pretty clear it's going to be well into 2023 AT LEAST before the chip market is back to normal. The demands from 5G, A.I., Automotive, and Machine Learning are just a few of the drivers that are hitting on all cylinders right now.

I agree.
 

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Anyone have knowledge on wheel hub assy for 2019 and newer f150 4x4?

Cousin has been waiting for months for 2 of them.
 

Weather Man

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Ford says chip shortage will force it to halt or cut production at 8 plants: reports​

The announcement by the major U.S. automaker continued a series of supply-chain setbacks that have affected the nation’s economy in recent months​

By Dom Calicchio FOXBusiness

Ford CFO predicts microchip shortage ‘easing’ this year

Ford CFO John Lawler says the company is ‘confident’ volumes and earnings will be up 10 to 15% as the semiconductor shortage mitigates.
Difficulties in obtaining semiconductor chips will prompt Ford Motor to temporarily halt or scale back auto production at eight plants in North America, the company said Friday, according to reports.

The announcement by the major U.S. automaker – set to take effect next week -- continued a series of supply-chain setbacks that have affected the nation’s economy in recent months.
Ford had warned Thursday that a lack of chip availability would likely hurt production in the company’s current financial quarter, Reuters reported.

Plants expected to see work suspended by Ford’s decision include those in Michigan, Chicago and Cuautitlan, Mexico, according to Reuters.
Also affected will be plants in Kentucky and Oakville, Ontario, Canada, Reuters added.
In Kansas City, production of Ford’s popular F-150 pickup trucks will be scaled back as one shift produces Transit vans, the news outlet reported.
FORD ‘CONFIDENT’ CAR PRICES, CHIP SHORTAGE WILL EASE THIS YEAR

Other models of Ford vehicles affected by the move include Bronco and Explorer SUVs, Ranger pickups, the Ford Mustang Mach-E electric crossover vehicle and the Lincoln Aviator, CNBC reported.
ford-f150.jpg

The 2021 Ford F-150 King Ranch Truck is seen at the Ford Built for America event at Ford's Dearborn, Michigan, plant, Sept. 17, 2020. (Getty Images)
On Thursday, Ford missed Wall Street’s earnings expectations, causing shares to drop nearly 10% on Friday, the CNBC report said.
Earlier Friday, Ford Chief Financial Officer John Lawler appeared on Fox News’ "Mornings with Maria," where he said the company expected the semiconductor shortage to ease later in 2022.
"That's why we're confident in our volumes in 2022 being up about 10 to 15%," Lawler said.
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A rebound in production could help bring down auto prices that have been affected by inflation, he added.
He said the chip shortage, combined with the impact of the omicron variant of the coronavirus, were a difficult 1-2 punch for the automaker in its fourth quarter.
 

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