Cash Out Mania Is Back

Weather Man

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Kind of a flashing red light to me.

Cash-out mortgage refinancing hits 16-year high, Black Knight report says

Mar. 07, 2022 10:48 AM ET
Cash-out refinancing of mortgages reached $1.2T, a 16-year high, in the U.S. last year even as overall refinance orginations fell 34%, according to Black Knight's Mortgage Monitor report.
The cash-out refi activity came within 1% of the all-time high as homeowners tapped $275B in equity over the course of 2021. And the $80B in equity tapped in Q4 2021 marked the largest quarterly volume in 15 years, as more than 1M homeowners withdrew equity through cash-out refinancing for the fifth straight quarter, Black Knight said.
Rate/term refinancing dropped a whopping 60% to $2.7T.
Total originations of $4.4T in 2021, outpaced the prior record with purchase lending of $1.7T hitting its highest point ever.
Black Knight's Optimal Blue rate lock data show that cash-out activity continued to increase in the first month of 2022.
Retention rates for cash-out refinancing remained a weak point. Mortgage servicers saw overall retention rates reach an eight-year high last year. But the cash-out retention rate was 8 percentage points lower than for rate/term refis.
On average, borrowers that changed lenders received rates just 5 basis points lower than those retained, indicating that, while rates are important, pricing isn't the only factor to keeping customers.
In January, Freddie Mac's forecast expects the housing market to "remain stable" this year even as mortgage rates rise.
 

q6543

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That's a great chart, we have the highest credit quality homeowners, at the same time with the lowest loan to value.

Just shows how rock solid this housing market is.
Nothing like 2008, very bullish.
 

jaxbusa

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I was in powersports sales and the number of people buying boats and ATV's with home equity was amazing, then it went kerplewy.

On weekends I see a lot people with lifted turbo diesel trucks pulling lifted side by sides, and I always ask my wife what are we doing wrong. My brain never would have processed taking money from my home to pay for a toy. Thanks for shedding light.


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derklug

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$5.00 gas, people pulling cash from their homes, foreign conflicts....
1646679904287.png
 

DSG2003Mach1

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my first thought is that this would coincide with all the home projects everyone was doing during lock down when they bought up all the building materials.

if they're pulling the money out to pay bills and get by that would be different imho
 

13COBRA

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my first thought is that this would coincide with all the home projects everyone was doing during lock down when they bought up all the building materials.

if they're pulling the money out to pay bills and get by that would be different imho

Financially responsible folk typically don't run into the issue where they need money from their house in order to cover bills.
 

ford fanatic

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We went over budget with 4 large home improvements back in 2013-2015. Pulled out $65K in equity and dropped our interest rate at the same time to finish up our projects, so every penny went back into the house. It has paid off exponentially, especially in todays market.
 

quad

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Financially responsible folk typically don't run into the issue where they need money from their house in order to cover bills.
Why would a financially responsible person buy something they couldn't afford, & have to look @ cash-out to cover the bill ?
& I understand the word " afford " means different things to different people..
 

13COBRA

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Why would a financially responsible person buy something they couldn't afford, & have to look @ cash-out to cover the bill ?
& I understand the word " afford " means different things to different people..

I think we're saying the same thing.
 

CobraBob

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Financially responsible folk typically don't run into the issue where they need money from their house in order to cover bills.
Unless....they lose a good paying job and haven't been able to find work for months. That's just one example of financially responsible folk running into a cash shortage issue necessitating pulling equity from their home. It might actually be the last thing they wanted/want to do. It happens Nick.
 

13COBRA

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Unless....they lose a good paying job and haven't been able to find work for months. That's just one example of financially responsible folk running into a cash shortage issue necessitating pulling equity from their home. It might actually be the last thing they wanted/want to do. It happens Nick.

TYPICALLY****
 

Weather Man

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Unless....they lose a good paying job and haven't been able to find work for months. That's just one example of financially responsible folk running into a cash shortage issue necessitating pulling equity from their home. It might actually be the last thing they wanted/want to do. It happens Nick.

Based on what I went through getting my home equity loan, good luck getting a loan with no job. That is one thing from the great recession that stuck around.
 

black4vcobra

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We are house shopping right now and our budget is WAY more than I ever anticipated spending on a house. On the plus side, our house has appreciated 60%+ in the 8 years we've owned it.

Besides being in a near recession proof metro area, I am glad to see the numbers showing a much more stable housing market than 14 years ago.

I feel for potential first time buyers who are seeing skyrocketing home values and dealing withy skyrocketing rental costs.
 

Blk04L

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We are house shopping right now and our budget is WAY more than I ever anticipated spending on a house. On the plus side, our house has appreciated 60%+ in the 8 years we've owned it.

Besides being in a near recession proof metro area, I am glad to see the numbers showing a much more stable housing market than 14 years ago.

I feel for potential first time buyers who are seeing skyrocketing home values and dealing withy skyrocketing rental costs.

Yea it's like the car market on steroids for first time buyers in some degree.

POS cars are overpriced and the days of getting any thing new near invoice is nill if you need it now.
But if you got a trade in that isn't falling apart you should fare alright if you do your research.

If you don't have a house to sell to get that huge downpayment or to make sure your loan isn't insane/can qualify I don't know how most can make it work.

The builder I went with was selling the floor plan I chose for 300-315k with the same options back in 2019.
Last year I paid 415k for it for the builder to build it. Took almost a year thanks to a 3 month impact window delay and other delays due to material.

The same house/similar layout by other builders are going for 520-550k on the secondary market now for people who can't wait a year for a build.

Maybe the market crashes and resets, or maybe this will settle down and a minor correction occurs. Or, maybe, this is the new way of life with inflation and people from the north with money to blow keeps coming down here making the prices still climb.
 

Weather Man

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Yea it's like the car market on steroids for first time buyers in some degree.

POS cars are overpriced and the days of getting any thing new near invoice is nill if you need it now.
But if you got a trade in that isn't falling apart you should fare alright if you do your research.

If you don't have a house to sell to get that huge downpayment or to make sure your loan isn't insane/can qualify I don't know how most can make it work.

The builder I went with was selling the floor plan I chose for 300-315k with the same options back in 2019.
Last year I paid 415k for it for the builder to build it. Took almost a year thanks to a 3 month impact window delay and other delays due to material.

The same house/similar layout by other builders are going for 520-550k on the secondary market now for people who can't wait a year for a build.

Maybe the market crashes and resets, or maybe this will settle down and a minor correction occurs. Or, maybe, this is the new way of life with inflation and people from the north with money to blow keeps coming down here making the prices still climb.

The pace D run states are increasing taxes mean no let up for the FL real estate market for a while.
 

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