AF Cuts

[ssj4sadie]

Just received a matrix outlining AFSC by grade how many are eligible for FY14 ERB. Holy shit did I luck out and holy shit are some AFSCs getting super ****ed. I'm very interested to see what the AF is going to do for promotion this year. For instance Security Forces has more overages than eligibles in both E4 and E5. Meaning more or less that if you're an eligible you're getting involuntarily separated.

So is the AF going to do an across the board promotion rate? I don't think so because the NCORP was used to balance the force in past years and as I understand the NCORP is not happening this year. So are they going to do promotion rate based on AFSC then? I feel that's the only way it can be done and maintain the desired effect of the force management programs.

 

[Weather Man]

AF leadership is really letting the troops down. Buying jets that are just flat out unaffordable. They have no choice but to gut the force.

 

[lobra97]

Its across the board same thing w Navy

 

[ssj4sadie]

Its across the board same thing w Navy

If the AF contiues with the across the board promotion rates i will lose faith in it. In my grade/AFSC there are 865 ERB eligible with only 10 overages. That ratio isn't bad at all. Now if you look at security forces for E5 is something like 1200 eligible and 1300 overages. Meaning pretty much that if they go to the ERB they are being involuntaryly separated. Sucks for them. But just hours to show that the across the board promotion rates have unbalanced the force and NCORP hasn't fixed anything.

I'm shocked at how mismanaged the manning for security forces is.

 

[Weather Man]

They were trying to carry as many extra guys as they could with the deployments. With Afgan winding down, it was bound to be brutal.

 

[lobra97]

Ive been E5 for a hot min our rate is locked up. Basically you have an eval and a test with a final multiple. It's usually within reach. For instance if the final multiple is 154 and you get 160 you promote. My last test cycle was 999.99% needed to advance. Basically Navy's way of saving no more room for advancement for your rate bud.

 

[Jebadias]

Ive been E5 for a hot min our rate is locked up. Basically you have an eval and a test with a final multiple. It's usually within reach. For instance if the final multiple is 154 and you get 160 you promote. My last test cycle was 999.99% needed to advance. Basically Navy's way of saving no more room for advancement for your rate bud.

Yep, it's the 90s all over again, go figure.
What do you expect though, if you cut 3 of 9 active and 6 of 12 reserve Seabee battalions and don't give an option for early outs those guys are going to cross rate somewhere else and any billets you had open for advancement fleetside magically disappear. Can't expect any other branch isn't going to get hurt the same way.

 

[five.slow]

while it seems shitty i wish the army would do the same as the air force. what the army does is focus on overweight and PT failures for the most part to thin out the troops. i wish they would select certain troops and say "bye bye". it would stop some of the crap iv been seeing lately.

Op im glad you got lucky. good luck in the future.

 

[five.slow]

Ive been E5 for a hot min our rate is locked up. Basically you have an eval and a test with a final multiple. It's usually within reach. For instance if the final multiple is 154 and you get 160 you promote. My last test cycle was 999.99% needed to advance. Basically Navy's way of saving no more room for advancement for your rate bud.

haa our promotion to e5 and e6 is just based on a points system. in theory it works but in real life its a joke. so you go to a promotion board and get a go or no-go. if you get a go you then start adding up everything for points and try to beat the cutoff which changes ever so often. so you are short on points? no problem just ignore everyone thing but college and make points. while doing it most forget how to do their jobs and are promoted and become shit leaders. so worrie more about getting promoted than their jobs (i know i know its important and there is more money). its crazy. at least yall have a test we just gotta remember some questions and a few creeds lol.

 

[ssj4sadie]

Ive been E5 for a hot min our rate is locked up. Basically you have an eval and a test with a final multiple. It's usually within reach. For instance if the final multiple is 154 and you get 160 you promote. My last test cycle was 999.99% needed to advance. Basically Navy's way of saving no more room for advancement for your rate bud.

That's not how it is done in the AF. To keep things simple I will leave out "out of cycle" testers and critically undermanned AFSCs. We test for promotion once a year. Each grade has it's own testing cycle. So E6 eligibles test from 1feb-31mar. There are a whole host of criteria to come up with our "score". Every AFSC (Rate, MOS) tests at the same time. The AF does some sort of calculation based on EOY manning (whether that is FY or CY I'm not sure). They then come up with a percentage of promotion. Now dependent on the eligibles scores within your AFSC a cutoff is made. That cutoff will put that AFSC at whatever promotion rate the AF has determined.

So say the promotion rate is 15 percent. In a particular AFSC there are 100 eligibles, 15 will be promoted. In another AFSC there are 200 eligibles, 30 will be promoted. This goes on and on for every AFSC specific to grade.

The AF then tries to balance the force through the Non-Commissioned Officer Retraining Program (NCORP). Basically determining the number of bodies that need to retrain from over manned AFSCs to under manned AFSCs.

 

[Ponyracer1]

It's similar to what happened in the early to mid 90's then again in the 00's, it's about a 10 yr cycle. It's happened before and it will happen again. IF you can walk the minefield of cuts then 2-3 yrs the promotion rates will go through the roof for all grades.

Remember about 00 when promo rate to staff was 65%?

They did the same thing by rolling back HYT a few yrs ago. Promo rate for MSgt was 34%, normally 22-24%.

The AF has a VERY hard time forcasting how many people will leave the force in one of these drawdowns, ei they need to cut 25K and 40K leaves. The machine moves so slow that they can't stop at 25000 and 1. They don't do this real time, hence the massive waves up and down in numbers every ten years or so. I'm an E7 with 19 yrs in and I've seen it 3 times now.

I FULLY expect to see promo rates for SMSgt jump dramatically in the next 2 yrs as the AF goes WHOAAAAA oh shit we let to many people out early or forced them to retire.

 

[Weather Man]

Between the aircraft the AF wants and the budget deficit, it is hard to see pressure lifting on the people side of the equation. It is really amazing how many people have been cut from the tail. CBPO used to just bustle, now they are spooky empty.

 

[Ponyracer1]

Ya things are getting thin for sure.

 

[saleensc281]

while it seems shitty i wish the army would do the same as the air force. what the army does is focus on overweight and PT failures for the most part to thin out the troops. i wish they would select certain troops and say "bye bye". it would stop some of the crap iv been seeing lately.

Op im glad you got lucky. good luck in the future.

Army is doing it, you just don't see it.

 

[wormriddle]

Ive been E5 for a hot min our rate is locked up. Basically you have an eval and a test with a final multiple. It's usually within reach. For instance if the final multiple is 154 and you get 160 you promote. My last test cycle was 999.99% needed to advance. Basically Navy's way of saving no more room for advancement for your rate bud.

What rate? I've always had my guys studying year round or when there is downtime in the shop. They bitch about it until that list comes out and my guys are 40% of the entire command on frocking day. It sucks that some rates are so closed up and others are not. All I can tell you is focus on the out of rate sections in your bibs. I made a binder for each test cycle tailored to the bibs when I made second and cut a 70 both times I took the test for first with MP evals, 70 for both shots at Chief but pretty much all EPs then. Keep your head up, the time will come.

 

[myersusaf]

AFPC received more than 4000 applicants for voluntary separation on day one. They are overwhelmed right now, a ton more people are wanting to leave than they expected. i could see promo rates to MSgt shooting up next year after all the TERA people get out as well.

 

[ssj4sadie]

Do you have an in at AFPC? I heard there have been about 78,000 volunteers so far.

 

[ImThatGuy]

Yeah OP you got really lucky, and Im glad for you. It get difficult at times. Dont worry too much, in the National Guard we are pretty much shooting weapons qualification on AKO.