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2013-14 Shelby GT500
THE FUTURE COLLECTIBILITY AND VALUE OF OUR 2013/2014 SHELBY GT500s...
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<blockquote data-quote="Simon_C" data-source="post: 13567752" data-attributes="member: 153320"><p><span style="color: black"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: white">You're Crazy! </span></span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: black"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: white">Ha ha, not really. Awesome post!</span></span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: black"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: white">I am about to be incredibly boring and put my train spotting hat on.</span></span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: black"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: white">Value is determined by what economists call 'subjective marginal utility'. When someone buys a car for $60K it does <u>NOT</u> mean that the car is worth $60K. It means that one person prefers that car to their $60K and the other person prefers $60K to the car.</span></span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: black"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: white">People have preference scales and when someone buys a car for $60K it means that they rank the car higher than $60K on their value scale. </span></span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: black"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: white">If I prefer a GT500 to $70K and an owner of a GT500 prefers $60K to his GT500 then, if an exchange is made, it will be made somewhere between $60K to $70K depending on our negotiating skills.</span></span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: black"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: white">The marginal aspect comes in where there are multiple buyers and sellers. If a second GT500 buyer enters the market only willing to pay $55K then the car described above will go to the first buyer as they can outbid the second buyer. The bid will be between $60K and $70K. If there is a second car it will really depend on what the second seller is willing to accept. If the second seller is not willing to accept an offer under $58K there will be no exchange.</span></span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: black"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: white">So, it is not so much a case of supply and demand but (being pedantic) what the preferences are of sellers and buyers are at any one time. For example, while the person who has purchased for collectability may be willing to sell their GT500, it may be at a substantially higher price than what the market is willing to pay so the car will not be sold. </span></span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: black"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: white">Further, it is not possible to know what criteria buyers place on a car. The argument is often made that performance is the main criteria affecting the future values of 2013/2014s. This may be correct, but there is no way of knowing if this is what will motivate future buyers for a GT500. Buyers of a 1967 GT500 are no longer motivated by performance.</span></span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: black"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: white">However, whether it be performance or not there needs to be a uniqueness factor. Something different about the 2013/2014 cars that will make them desirable and buyers willing to pay a premium.</span></span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: black"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: white">The uniqueness factor may be something that you have mentioned, it may be another factor or they may never have that uniqueness factor. There is no way of knowing. The factor may even be an antisocial aspect to the car - especially if tree huggers get their way in the future.</span></span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: black"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: white">The last muscle car era died slowly. That generation's muscle cars were killed off by a combination of fuel costs, insurance costs and Ralph Nader. No one knew at the time that the muscle car was dying. It dies slowly, but when it did, the values of 60s and early 70s muscle cars plummeted. Now the collectability seems to be from people reliving the past. Ironically, I was considering a 60s Mustang when I decided on a 2014.</span></span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: black"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: white">It took years for the prices of 60s muscle cars to rebound and for them to become collectible. Massively collectible in the case of the 60s Shelbys.</span></span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: black"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: white">Maybe CAFE legislation will create that uniqueness factor? But that factor, whatever it is, will need to be unique enough for there to be enough buyers willing to pay a premium price outnumbering sellers. </span></span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: black"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: white">As an aside. As for stock prices going up all you are seeing is inflation (increase in the supply of money). It is impossible for the stock market (as a whole) to go up long term without this. With a finite supply of money any increase in the stock prices will be offset by reduced consumer spending (spent their money on stocks instead) which will impact on sales, then earnings, forcing stock prices back down.</span></span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: black"><span style="font-family: 'Verdana'"><span style="color: white">Anyway, it is a long way of saying who knows? You make some good points which may or may not lead to a future increase in value. My personal hunch (and that is all that it is) is that there may be some upside potential but I think anyone buying for that reason could get a better return with a lot less risk investing elsewhere.</span></span></span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Simon_C, post: 13567752, member: 153320"] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white]You're Crazy! [/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white][/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white]Ha ha, not really. Awesome post![/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white][/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white]I am about to be incredibly boring and put my train spotting hat on.[/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white][/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white]Value is determined by what economists call 'subjective marginal utility'. When someone buys a car for $60K it does [U]NOT[/U] mean that the car is worth $60K. It means that one person prefers that car to their $60K and the other person prefers $60K to the car.[/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white][/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white]People have preference scales and when someone buys a car for $60K it means that they rank the car higher than $60K on their value scale. [/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white][/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white]If I prefer a GT500 to $70K and an owner of a GT500 prefers $60K to his GT500 then, if an exchange is made, it will be made somewhere between $60K to $70K depending on our negotiating skills.[/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white][/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white]The marginal aspect comes in where there are multiple buyers and sellers. If a second GT500 buyer enters the market only willing to pay $55K then the car described above will go to the first buyer as they can outbid the second buyer. The bid will be between $60K and $70K. If there is a second car it will really depend on what the second seller is willing to accept. If the second seller is not willing to accept an offer under $58K there will be no exchange.[/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white][/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white]So, it is not so much a case of supply and demand but (being pedantic) what the preferences are of sellers and buyers are at any one time. For example, while the person who has purchased for collectability may be willing to sell their GT500, it may be at a substantially higher price than what the market is willing to pay so the car will not be sold. [/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white][/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white]Further, it is not possible to know what criteria buyers place on a car. The argument is often made that performance is the main criteria affecting the future values of 2013/2014s. This may be correct, but there is no way of knowing if this is what will motivate future buyers for a GT500. Buyers of a 1967 GT500 are no longer motivated by performance.[/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white][/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white]However, whether it be performance or not there needs to be a uniqueness factor. Something different about the 2013/2014 cars that will make them desirable and buyers willing to pay a premium.[/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white][/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white]The uniqueness factor may be something that you have mentioned, it may be another factor or they may never have that uniqueness factor. There is no way of knowing. The factor may even be an antisocial aspect to the car - especially if tree huggers get their way in the future.[/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white][/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white]The last muscle car era died slowly. That generation's muscle cars were killed off by a combination of fuel costs, insurance costs and Ralph Nader. No one knew at the time that the muscle car was dying. It dies slowly, but when it did, the values of 60s and early 70s muscle cars plummeted. Now the collectability seems to be from people reliving the past. Ironically, I was considering a 60s Mustang when I decided on a 2014.[/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white][/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white]It took years for the prices of 60s muscle cars to rebound and for them to become collectible. Massively collectible in the case of the 60s Shelbys.[/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white][/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white]Maybe CAFE legislation will create that uniqueness factor? But that factor, whatever it is, will need to be unique enough for there to be enough buyers willing to pay a premium price outnumbering sellers. [/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white][/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white]As an aside. As for stock prices going up all you are seeing is inflation (increase in the supply of money). It is impossible for the stock market (as a whole) to go up long term without this. With a finite supply of money any increase in the stock prices will be offset by reduced consumer spending (spent their money on stocks instead) which will impact on sales, then earnings, forcing stock prices back down.[/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white][/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][COLOR=white]Anyway, it is a long way of saying who knows? You make some good points which may or may not lead to a future increase in value. My personal hunch (and that is all that it is) is that there may be some upside potential but I think anyone buying for that reason could get a better return with a lot less risk investing elsewhere.[/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR] [/QUOTE]
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2013-14 Shelby GT500
THE FUTURE COLLECTIBILITY AND VALUE OF OUR 2013/2014 SHELBY GT500s...
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