THE FUTURE COLLECTIBILITY AND VALUE OF OUR 2013/2014 SHELBY GT500s...

USV8PWR

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OKAY...I've commented on enough threads regarding the future values of 2013/2014 Shelby GT500's already, but since the topic keeps popping up I finally decided it was time to address it in it's own thread. Feel free to disagree and I will attempt to respond to everyone's educated counter opions as I can. Or go ahead and just flame away saying I'm crazy, LoL. :beer:

I believe the 2013/2014 Ford Shelby GT500 will quickly increase in above MSRP value in no more than 10 to 15 years time! Now of course I realize they will continue to very modestly depreciate in value over the next couple years as they are still being currently built (for a very short more time) and it will take a few years to really weed out through many of the approx. 10,400 cars BUT I do believe that after about 5 years the depreciated value will plateau and begin to actually go up in value with the values of the remaining clean lower mileage, unmolested (no major mods other than minor bolt ons), and unwrecked examples to increase in value above their original MSRP in as few as 10 years time.

The ONLY disclaimer I have at all to my above opinion and timeline beliefs is that of course the value of the 2013/2014 Shelby GT500 depends an enormous amount on just how great the next gen Mustang Shelby GT500/GT350, Cobra, or whatever it will be called, is. If the next gen top of the line Mustang surpasses the 2013/2014 Shelby GT500 in both features and total performance then these cars will depreciate (but I still believe even if that were to occur it would be at a much lower rate than say a 2003/2004 Cobra or a 2007 to 2012 Shelby GT500 and I will explain why in detail below). But with increasing CAFE standards and the fact that you CANNOT continue to increase performance forever, I truly believe the writing is on the wall and these cars will likely be some of, if not the, greatest Mustangs ever built.


Here below are some justifications for why I believe these cars will increase in value. As others comment on this thread I will add to them;


1). Even with as little actual input as he may have had in the development of the 2013/2014 Shelby GT500s, the fact remains these production cars are the last during Carroll Shelby's lifetime.

2). As everyone knows already, the 2013/2014 Shelby's 5.8L supercharged engine rated at 662 HP/ 631 FT/TQ is the most powerful production Mustang built to date. It's also the highest horsepower US production car ever built. This car is also the first Mustang and possibly the last to reach 200 MPH and it is the cheapest production car ever built to hit the 200MPH mark. We have already heard over and over again that this engine will NOT fit in the next gen Mustang nor meet the ever increasing CAFE standards. So it is safe to say the next Mustang will not top this one in overall power.

3). I further believe performance will begin to taper off with the next generation Shelby/Cobra. Yes, they are reducing weight on the next car. But so will they be doing so with power. Nothing can go up forever folks! And that includes performance. I think we likely could have a repeat of the drop in performance experienced in the 70's as CAFE standards are rising and pressure for cars to be more "green" are ever mounting. The 80's brought us a fuel injected 5.0 with 200 HP. The 1993 Cobra, was an awesome vehicle at the time and could run a quarter mile at a then impressive 14 seconds, but in 10 years time the 2003/2004 SVT Cobra greatly outperformed it running 12 second quarter miles and with more features. However, as great as the 2003/2004 SVT Cobra was and still is, in 10 years time the 2013 Mustang GT can perform as good or better in every category as the 2003/2004 SVT Cobra and gets better fuel economy, has many more features, is safer and more comfortable! Will the 2023 Mustang GT...or the Shelby/Cobra/whatever outperform the 11 second quarter mile 2013/2014 Shelby GT500s???? Sure, I guess it's possible, but call me very skeptical.

4). Every one cites the 2003/2004 Cobra's and their excellent resale value which has held up over the years due to the fact they are fantasticly fun cars that are easy to modify. The 03/04 Cobras started a cult following and became the car to beat on the street. Ford built over 19,000 of the 2003/2004 cars and they have still held their resale values very well due to their popularity. With that said however, it's hard to compare the potential resale of the 2013/2014 Shelbys to the 2003/2004 Cobras as their 19,000 produced units is roughly 84% MORE than Ford will end up building of the 2013/2014 Shelbys. I'm estimating the total units produced of the 2013/2014 Shelby will be approximately 10,400 or so once production stops next month sometime. In other words, for 2013/2014 Ford is ONLY building 54 to 55% of the number of cars it built for the 2003/2004 SVT Cobra. That is 8,700 or so LESS vehicles that will EVER be available for purchase. For example, in 2003 Ford built 8,394 2003 SVT Cobra Coupes. So you can quickly see that there is going to be A LOT LESS SUPPLY with the 2013/2014 Shelby GT500 compared to the 2003/2004 SVT Cobra. Chew on that a fact a bit! And then you have to wonder if these cars are almost sure to be EVEN MORE POPULAR due to the performance records they have set for a muscle car.

5). Now yes, 10,400 or so produced cars for 2013/2014 MAY seem like a lot to you to be considered rare. But that approximate total is being quickly and continually dwindled down through salvage wrecks, other bad wrecks, extreme modifications which a lot of the time seems to also include the sale of the original parts of the car :bash: :nonono:, blown engines, cars being shipped overseas that will possibly never be seen again (or at least available for purchase again to the American market), stolen, flood, and also simply held on to with no intention of selling for a very long time.

Now you say, well don't all cars get weeded out through wrecks and other causes as time goes on? And while yes that is true and a great point, I then argue that you have to think that with horsepower now at 662HP (and many of them being modded to 750 or more HP) and a factory quarter mile time in the 11 second range that it could be very likely that these cars will weed out through wrecks at a much faster rate than say the 5,000 1993 SVT Cobras that were built which were rated at only 230HP. It is much, much easier to lose control of a stock 662 HP Mustang than it is a 230 HP one. Not to mention all of the ones that have been way modified over 662HP. Plus the 2013/2014 are still relatively quite cheap for the amount of power you get. There have been several folks destroying these cars on just the test drive alone! At least with the 2005/2006 Ford GT the cars were so much money brand new that it kept less fools out of the purchasing and/or driving equation. However, numerous wrecks and major modifications still occured and the unmolested Ford GT quickly became the modern day poster child of the potential a speciality car can realize valuewise when the total number (which was 4,000 units!) available for sale is shrunk drastically in a few short years due to wrecks and other causes and then the car is not surpassed by any new model.

I will say this about the 2005/2006 Ford GT. One has to consider that 4,000 units of a $150,000 car brand new is probably very close to the equivalent of 10,400 units of a $60K one as there will be many more folks who can afford the Shelby AND therefore ultimately more fools who will scoop them up and destroy them. ;-) While definitely not fact, the more someone pays for something the more likely it is to be taken care of. But there were plenty of 2005 & 2006 Ford GTs that proved that to be wrong. But all in all, I expect the percentage of 2013/2014 Shelby GT500s that are destroyed to be a lot higher than the 2005/2006 Ford GT percentage because the 2013/2014 Shelbys cost so much less! But I digress... HOWEVER, the real reason the Ford GT shot up in value over the last 5 years is because Ford did not replace it with a more powerful and better Ford GT!!! Trust me, if Ford had made a 2013/2014 Ford GT with the new 5.8L 662HP engine and all the latest saftey and interior techology those 2005/2006 cars would have depreciated like an older Corvette Z06 or older Dodge Viper.

People on here also like to bring up the depreciation of the older 2007 to 2012 Shelbys and 2006 to 2013 Corvette Z06s. First the Vette, the Corvette Z06 sans some awesome shocks, tires, and a few interior bits, has stayed the same since 2006 with NO increase in HP. In fact the newer 2010 to 2013 Z06s are slower in the quarter than the 2006 to 2007 Z06s due to increased weight. Had that car continually gotten updates as Ford did with the SVT Cobra in the 90's and 00's and the Shelby from 2007 to 2013 the values would be staggered with each year that offered more performance worth more than the previous. Yet Chevrolet built almost 30K of the same exact car. That's why the last few years they hardly sold any!

6). The 2013/2014 Shelby GT00 caught the attention of just about everyone. The car has been reviewed and/or mentioned in just about every magazine publication not just including the traditional car ones. It's been in the Robb Report, Playboy, and Esquire to name a few. Folks all over the world want them and quite a few have been sold used and shipped overseas. Additionally, there have been many converts cross over from GM and other manufacturers on this car. I myself sold a 2008 Corvette Coupe and was getting ready to buy a 2010 Corvette ZR1 when I decided to change course and buy another Mustang after hearing about how awesome this car was going to be. It's not just the Ford folks who are interested in these cars folks.

7). You can just tell this car is destined to be a classic. I can't go anywhere without being bombarded with questions, have pictures taken of it, etc. Old ladies in SUVs and minivans who could seem to care less about any cars ask me all the time about it and mention how beautiful it is. I get thumbs up from Law Enforcement and everyone else at traffic lights. Yes, my red 2008 Corvette attacted some attention. But not like this. And by now there are a TON of 2013/2014 Mustangs on the road both in V6 and GT models. But it hasn't slowed down the public from realizing my Shelby GT500 is not just another Mustang, but rather a very special car. The amount of attention it gets from seemingly non-car types never ceases to amaze me. This alone is a huge indicator of where these cars will go if Ford ever quits producing them.

8). FINALLY, Yes, I will admit that as expected with any new car the pent up demand of people standing in line to order/buy one was relieved once Ford got the hang of building them. However, these cars will only be produced for just over 1 year 8 months beginning in March 2012 and concluding November 2013 which is a pretty short window. Constantly we see guys and gals on here saying they just got their new or used Shelby and we continually see even more posts from numerous others who say they can't wait to get one of their own 2013/2014 cars but the timing is not right due to personal, financial, or other reasons. This car has a huge fan base from 15 yr olds to 75 yr olds and there are likely many of them who would jump at the chance to own one if they could get their other obligations in order. And unlike the 2003/2004 SVT Cobra and some of the previous year Shelby GT500s, this car was not overproduced by Ford! Folks, there ARE NOT that many unsold 2013/2014 cars on dealers lots, especially in colors other than black and/or without an ADM on them! If the cars were not overproduced, and therefore the market not flooded with them, from the very get-go one can only logically assume that upon their production ceasing next month they will quickly become EVEN HARDER TO COME BY. The availability of any new 2013/2014 leftovers will dry up extremely quickly (without any incentives or help from FoMoCo) and the used market will become much more squeezed as those people who become ready to buy search for the few available ones that were not held tightly onto, severly damaged, destroyed, above average mileage or extremely modified!! Folks, production will cease next month but that demand will not! Not for the most powerful Mustang to date (and likely ever), not for the quickest and fastest Mustang to date (and likely ever), not for Shelby's last car while he was still alive, not for the world wide press it received and across the board jaw-dropping. That demand will remain alive and well, and IF the next gen Cobra, Shelby, whatever they want to call it is not the car everyone hopes or thinks it should be....look out! Don't say I didn't try tell you! :rockon:



In summary, I believe these cars will increase in value IF the next gen Cobra doesn't surpass it...and I don't think it will with it's rumored significant weight reduction or not. If this new car comes in at approx. 3,400lbs as the rumors are claiming that would be the equivalent of a 1994 SVT Cobra!! But with today's modern technology and saftey requirements you can't build a 1994 SVT Cobra, nor would you want to. With that said however, there are two great examples of cars available for sale today that weigh in at approx. 3,400 lbs and they are the 2014 Corvette Stingray and the 2014 Hyundai Genesis Coupe. While I seriously doubt the next 2015 Mustang will be the muscle car equivalent of a 2014 Corvette (which does not have two rear seats), I also seriously hope that it does not become the global boring equivalent of the 2014 Hyundai Genesis Coupe that does have those two rear seats. ;-)

May us Ford fanatics continue to get ever increasing HP and performance out of a production Ford Mustang straight out of the factory!! Regardless however, I will be holding onto my 2013 Shelby GT500 for years to come due to my own personal reasons. So regardless of whether you agree with anything I have said or not, you can thank me for at least putting my money where my message is by taking at least one 2013/2014 Shelby GT500 out of the pool of cars available for purchase on the used market! And I suspect that quite a few of you other 2013/2014 Shelby owners who disagree with me, believe I'm nuts with my above opinion and supported facts, and also stand firm that this car is just yet another high powered Stang that will depreciate accordingly have very likely also taken one of them out of the normal used market through severe or salvage wrecks, extreme modifications, selling origninal factory parts off the cars, or just simply holding onto them for long term like I am doing. ;)
 
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Tob

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USV8PWR said:
....and the fact that you CANNOT continue to increase performance forever

You may see diminishing returns but indeed you can continue to increase performance and efficiency as well. You like what you have, as do I, but you have no idea what is yet to come.
 

Chris!

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It's an awesome car, and there's and outside chance that someday, a 0 mile car will be collectable.

Hate to say it, cause i like you, but I gotta say, alot of this is a stretch.
 

USV8PWR

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It's an awesome car, and there's and outside chance that someday, a 0 mile car will be collectable.

Hate to say it, cause i like you, but I gotta say, alot of this is a stretch.

:rockon: Ditto man!

Like I said, it's really irrelevant to me as I don't intend to sell my car for years to come so I won't lose or make any money regardless.

I did see on Ebay last night a 1000 mile 1993 Cobra for sale! The buy it now is $32K I believe. :coolman:
 

heatsoaked12

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These cars are special to us, but how many of us would like a 69 Mustang (even with the same power as ours)instead of our model year?.The generation that will be driving in 10-15 years time won't care much for our cars much or even cars that burn fuel..... My prediction.
 

USV8PWR

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You have too much Freetime :p


I know it's way to long. I just tried to put all of the arguments I've heard in other threads in one thread. My mother-in-law has been in town this wknd so I have had plenty of free time! LOL But Lethalchem my friend, you are on these forums way more than I am! :p

I'll try to shorten my points some... :)
 

DBK

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13/14 will be mildly collectible. End of an era, etc.

But make no mistake, the new car as an overall performance car is going to drill the current car.
 

Lethalchem

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13/14 will be mildly collectible. End of an era, etc.

But make no mistake, the new car as an overall performance car is going to drill the current car.

I've been hearing some strange rumors the new car isn't going to be as small and light as people have been expecting. Perhaps down the road a bit more, but not for 2015. Of all the design changes that have occured for the Mustang over the years I've never been impressed with the first ones out of the gate. I'm hopeful for the future though.
 

SlowSVT

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I know it's way to long. I just tried to put all of the arguments I've heard in other threads in one thread. My mother-in-law has been in town this wknd so I have had plenty of free time! LOL But Lethalchem my friend, you are on these forums way more than I am! :p

I'll try to shorten my points some... :)

Yea, the Mother-Of-All-In-Law or MOAIL's can have the effect on people LOL

I'm sure there is a place for the 13/14 GT500 in the collector value arena as time marches on. 20+ years from now who knows what these cars will fetch on the open market or at auction. Overall none of these cars can be considered "good investments" but they sure are fun :burnout:
 

raustin0017

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I thought the Trinity was the most powerful production V-8 in the world...not just the U.S.? Think I read it in one of the many reviews.

BTW....like your write up!!!
 

s4awd

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Even if it does hold it's value, it still has to over come inflation, which it won't. Any lame mutual fund will beat most cars that have appreciated simply because of the time lost during a car's first 10-20 years of depreciation. The great thing about the GT500 is you can drive it so, get on with it :)
 

USV8PWR

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I've been hearing some strange rumors the new car isn't going to be as small and light as people have been expecting. Perhaps down the road a bit more, but not for 2015. Of all the design changes that have occured for the Mustang over the years I've never been impressed with the first ones out of the gate. I'm hopeful for the future though.

Chris!, Iceman5000, and others on here who are in the know have assured me the new car will be much lighter and thus perform better even with less HP. But I just don't see how it could come in at 3,400 and still retain the Ford Mustang faithful. Because if you look at what is currently available in that weight range now (including my two examples above) there is nothing I really like or is that close to what a Mustang is.

If DBK is correct and the next car drills this one, then as my disclaimer states they won't definitely go up in value for a long, long time. But you can only increase acceleration so much on a RWD, manual car with factory tires. The Viper and ZR1 are only a tenth or so quicker to 60 than the Shelby. And speeds after that (especially after 100) are going to rely on horsepower and weight. I'm sure the next gen will be quicker around a racetrack. But I seriously doubt we'll get another second off the quarter mile like we've been getting every 10 years so far.

I thought the Trinity was the most powerful production V-8 in the world...not just the U.S.? Think I read it in one of the many reviews.

BTW....like your write up!!!

You are correct Sir, it is! And thank you! :beer:
 

dom418

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You make some good points but at the end of the day you are drinking more 13/14' Shelby kool aid than most anyone on this site. Most of your posts scream of the fortunes this car will bring people in the future. You are pretty confident and bold with most of your assumptions. The eminent 'skyrocketing' value of these cars is a stretch to say the least. I hope you are right but history has shown this to be unlikely. Only time will tell but the next gen mustang will eclipse this current model. It may not match hp, but performance and everything other metric should eclipse this generation.

Take the car for what it is, the best mustang to date. It should hold its value like any other SVT product and when discussing automobile values, this is better than most can claim with their particular car.

Even with it's great value, Ford has put this car out of the reach of most true enthusiasts. I suspect the next iteration will be no different.
 
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bpmurr

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13/14 will be mildly collectible. End of an era, etc.

But make no mistake, the new car as an overall performance car is going to drill the current car.

Correct, but the current GT500 will not be beat in straight line performance until the 2017 model year at the earliest.
 

USV8PWR

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You make some good points but at the end of the day you are drinking more 13/14' Shelby kool aid then most anyone on this site. Most of your posts scream of the fortunes this car will bring people in the future. You are pretty confident and bold with most of your assumptions. The eminent 'skyrocketing' value of these cars is a stretch to say the least. Only time will tell but the next gen mustang will eclipse this current model. It may not match hp, but performance and everything other metric should eclipse this generation.

Take the car for what it is, the best mustang to date. It should hold its value like any other SVT product and when discussing automobile values, this is better than most can claim with their particular car.

I don't know about these cars bringing fortunes, but I'm just saying if you think the 03/04 Cobras held their resale values very well, then just wait to you see how these will hold up with 8,700 fewer units, being known as Caroll's last cars, and the simple fact that their HP number will not be eclipsed by the next gen.

As far as drinking kool aid goes, you seem to be enjoying the kind that makes one believe performance will ALWAYS be better with the next car coming down the chain. Hopefully that is ALWAYS the case, and I'm wrong, but still get to enjoy my 2013 Shelby GT500 everytime I start it up. Heck, I'd still cheers my drink to yours over that! :beer:
 
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USV8PWR

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Correct, but the current GT500 will not be beat in straight line performance until the 2017 model year at the earliest.

Additionally, I want to know how the next one will be expected to beat this one in acceleration? Surely Ford won't put a dual clutch in and/or build us an AWD Mustang. Therefore, you can only accelerate so fast in a RWD, manual transmission car, using normal street tires. A 2013 ZR1 Vette beats our Shelby by maybe 2 tenths to 60 and then after that the rest of the increased discrepancy between the two is due to less weight and better aerodynamics of the Z car. But even that car is maybe only a .5 second to 100 quicker and 3 or 4 tenths of a second quicker in the quarter with trap speed differences of only 2 to 4 MPH. The next Mustang isn't going to have as much power as the current Shelby and probably not nearly as much power as the 2013 Corvette ZR1 or 2014 Dodge Viper. EVEN if it weighed very similar to those cars (I don't see how it could and still be a Mustang) it also won't match the aerodynamics of the Vette or the Viper either! Additionally, from the spy photos I've seen of the new car (along with the rumored much narrower size of the car) the next car will likely not have any wider tires than the current one. So count extra grip out as well. And finally an IRS isn't going to help it in the acceleration department either.

So if the 2013 Corvette ZR1/2014 Dodge Viper is able to trump the 2013/2014 Shelby GT500 in acceleration tests using less horsepower and torque because they also have a lot less weight, better aerodynamics and better tire grip and the new Mustang Shelby/Cobra won't be able to match or beat the ZR1 or Viper on ANY of those specs (HP, weight, aerodynamics or grip) how can one logically expect it to drill our cars in acceleration?!?! For the life of me, I just can't see the new cars being quicker in acceleration. Not going to happen.

But boy I bet the 2017+ model will be an awesome track toy and get some really good gas mileage to boot! :-D
 
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04SVTMystic

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I have nothing but respect for the '13/'14 GT500. I feel they will hold their value very well over time, but do not see them increasing in value over MSRP in such a short amount of time. Their displacement and their HP rating may never be matched again, but let's all hope for the future of high performance that these cars are not the final high water mark in Mustang performance.

As a Terminator owner, I am glad that the breed continues to advance and thrive and hope it does so in the future. Buy these Shebys to use and enjoy. They are fantastic machines.
 

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