Might as well bet on tomorrow...
Dow is Down 900+ points Today 2/24/2020
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Honestly wouldn't surprise me. The market has been experiencing selective hearing when it comes to negative news lately. But with all the reopen talk, there's equally as much caution to not jump into that too quickly. CDC recommended social distancing till 2022.
market makes zero sense right now LOL. I should bought at DJ 19k. oh well. long terms are still good.
Trump is going to keep dangling the "reopen" carrot to prop up the markets. The truth is, there is no way for major areas to reopen without restrictions that will last a long time. When the second wave hits, depending on severity, that could reignite things.
Tomorrow will be very telling. So far, the market has priced in jobless reports and we keep getting a bump. If tomorrow is the same, it is going to take a serious sentiment shift to even retest the lows.
Tomorrow will be very telling. So far, the market has priced in jobless reports and we keep getting a bump. If tomorrow is the same, it is going to take a serious sentiment shift to even retest the lows.
China’s getting hit again remember they are 6 weeks in front of us. Singapore which handle the first round amazing is getting hit now too. It’s not over for a long shot.
I will say cdc has been wrong about everything....
I will say cdc has been wrong about everything....
I think China is the key here. If we start to see China locking down cities again, I think that is the nest catalyst for a move down.
1 or 2% moves up and down are gonna be the norm for a while I think. Day traders paradise.
Yesterday
^Yeah, things are starting to heat up again. I have clients in Mexico who are portraying a VERY different image of what is going on vs what is being reported. For example, there is a plant down in Tijuana that has at least 30 confirmed cases and two deaths and workers are starting to protest outside because they weren't given any protection (our production plant in the same business park has 1,100 employees but we shut down weeks ago). That is just one building with thousands working inside, and I wouldn't be surprised if most of them have it.
I keep hearing (and seeing from the tape) that the market has this all "priced in", but I find that hard to believe. I won't fight it, but I don't see how we don't retest or break the lows. CHWY is the only stock I have added recently to my long-term portfolio, but I thought I chased it a bit and didn't take as much as I wanted. Once these big visibility names start dropping, it will be interesting to see how the rest of the market holds up. I can't get myself to be a buyer up here.
I keep hearing (and seeing from the tape) that the market has this all "priced in", but I find that hard to believe. I won't fight it, but I don't see how we don't retest or break the lows. CHWY is the only stock I have added recently to my long-term portfolio, but I thought I chased it a bit and didn't take as much as I wanted. Once these big visibility names start dropping, it will be interesting to see how the rest of the market holds up. I can't get myself to be a buyer up here.
Honest question. Do you think it would be good for the states to open up 100% next week like some are fighting for in the corona thread?
They couldn't open 100% if they wanted to. Social distancing is embedded and is gonna haunt us for a LONG time.
I think the virus will be here for at least 6 months causing havoc.
Absolutely not. And there are lots of reasons for that. There isn't going to be a one-size fits all solution. Some of these states probably don't need to be locked-down, but there is no way in hell you can do a hard re-open of NY or CA for a while. I still have yet to see any research that herd immunity is possible (this seems to be an assumption, but needs confirming) with COVID-19. I have seen some studies showing that some people who had COVID-19 are not showing large levels of antibodies. We have had years where the Flu killed around 70K people. who is to say that we don't get some type of new mutation or a second wave with COVID-19 that siginifacntly increases death rates (which are already significantly higher than the Flu with social distancing in place)?
A hard re-open, if not done properly, can actually set us up for another breakout and another lock-down, which would then become more severe with more restrictions put in place. They are going to slow-play this, and be as cautious as possible. It's politics now.
I will take a look in that thread and see what others are saying.
@BrendanEich has good insight that I like to read.
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I was going to say till maybe June, or a couple weeks into, the latest.
I HOPE I AM 100% WRONG!!! I want this economy open ASAP!
I hope you are right. All indicators say otherwise.
We are 6 weeks behind China and they are going the wrong way. Same with Singapore. The second wave of swine was worse than the first. We should prepare as such so we can protect the economy as much as possible.
Wyoming Montana maybe even rural parts of other states if the can stay open....
Yeah,....it's horrible.
Now I'm hearing June. T$ has a press conference at 6pm today at the White House about opening the economy. Let's hope it's good news.
There is a point out there with the lockdown that society crashes, they don't know where that point is and the Feds and States won't be able to stop it when it starts. Covid 19 will be the least of anyone's worries at that point. The scary thing is that it may start outside the USA and spread here. I wonder what the odds of Italy defaulting on its debt are?
Trump will open it. The good news will be if it can stay open.
What a joke. Terrible economic data all morning including another 5.2 million unemployed and the market barely flinches. Now Dow futures are 750+ on a report of a drug treatment has promising results.
I keep waiting for the next leg down and it keeps getting propped up by the Fed.
I keep waiting for the next leg down and it keeps getting propped up by the Fed.
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