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2011-2014 Mustangs
2011-2014 Mustang Talk
Build date for 14's that might have 15 engine parts?
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<blockquote data-quote="stags" data-source="post: 14544737" data-attributes="member: 165686"><p>I read another post on the blue oval forum which indicated the last day of production for MY 2014 was 6/20... My car was built 6/20... and the sequence number is 7190... can anyone confirm what the VIN on the last 2014 produced was? (GT and all mustangs). Would be hella cool to have one of the last made cars</p><p></p><p>I don't doubt the OP's statement based on pure business logic. Not saying I am an expert in automotive production, but I do have some business experience. And I am bored and moderately drunk (NOT DRIVING!!!) so I will provide this hypothetical</p><p></p><p>Summary is at the bottom for TLDR folks</p><p></p><p>Let's say you're the Ford production manager. Your demand planning team estimates you will sell 1000 (Number pulled out of my ass for example purposes) units in MY14. SO at the beginning of the run you order the sum of the parts you need to make your thousand units while accounting for possible defective and damaged units. Say then that the car is a wild success, you're sitting halfway through the year, and you've already been able to sell 700 units. Now, basic economics tells us that you will continue to produce the cars as long as there is a marginal benefit to doing so (eg a buyer and profit to be made). So you call dial up the supply chain and tell your people you now forecast sales of 1300 units for the model year so you need components to produce an additional 300 units. All of your suppliers internal and external are continuing to produce and deliver components in a just in time fashion. But Foundry XYZ which produces your engine internals is a busy group so they made a mass run of your units, stored them in a warehouse, and promptly retooled for another customer. Retooling for a 300 unit run is cost prohibitive. So you say well hell how do I get some internals and still be able to make money on this car? A few days pass and a design team engineer says hey, we just sent an order to Foundry XYZ to get our internals done for our 2015 model year and they are compatible with the other components needed to make the MY14, so why don't we tag on an additional 300 units? So you do it. You make the cars and make money even with a slightly lower margin because the MY15 pistons cost more. And some very delighted 14 customers are tickled speechless. </p><p></p><p></p><p>So key takeaways (TLDR): </p><p>Modern production is about running as lean as possible to maximize return on investment. So when Ford orders it's parts the accountants decree that you get the X# parts to make Y cars assuming Z% defective/damaged parts. </p><p>Because dormant capital doesn't make $$$ owners will run production lines 24/7/365 if they can sell units. This may mean using the same line for multiple parts in different production runs.</p><p>Forecasting is like playing craps. I don't know much about the build process but I do know that forecasts are badly wrong more often than they are ballpark correct.</p><p>Miss your forecast but can sell more units with a marginal benefit and you'll do it even if your bottom line is smaller in the additional units. Missing low is also better than missing high.</p><p>So, we can conclude that the forecasters probably screwed the pooch, Ford wanted more units sold because they could still make money, even if they had to use 15 pistons because it would have been cost prohibitive to retool a line to make 14 pistons</p><p></p><p>If you doubt this consider the alternative of this story; We don't know how many units we are gonna sell so we are gonna order a crap ton of parts and what ever we don't use we will roll over into the S550. Might have worked between 13 and 14, but not 14 and 15. The moment it was found out it would be a PR nightmare for Ford and everyone who had just bought an S550 would be steaming mad. But in the inverse scenario above... If my car has 15 parts I will be presently surprised.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="stags, post: 14544737, member: 165686"] I read another post on the blue oval forum which indicated the last day of production for MY 2014 was 6/20... My car was built 6/20... and the sequence number is 7190... can anyone confirm what the VIN on the last 2014 produced was? (GT and all mustangs). Would be hella cool to have one of the last made cars I don't doubt the OP's statement based on pure business logic. Not saying I am an expert in automotive production, but I do have some business experience. And I am bored and moderately drunk (NOT DRIVING!!!) so I will provide this hypothetical Summary is at the bottom for TLDR folks Let's say you're the Ford production manager. Your demand planning team estimates you will sell 1000 (Number pulled out of my ass for example purposes) units in MY14. SO at the beginning of the run you order the sum of the parts you need to make your thousand units while accounting for possible defective and damaged units. Say then that the car is a wild success, you're sitting halfway through the year, and you've already been able to sell 700 units. Now, basic economics tells us that you will continue to produce the cars as long as there is a marginal benefit to doing so (eg a buyer and profit to be made). So you call dial up the supply chain and tell your people you now forecast sales of 1300 units for the model year so you need components to produce an additional 300 units. All of your suppliers internal and external are continuing to produce and deliver components in a just in time fashion. But Foundry XYZ which produces your engine internals is a busy group so they made a mass run of your units, stored them in a warehouse, and promptly retooled for another customer. Retooling for a 300 unit run is cost prohibitive. So you say well hell how do I get some internals and still be able to make money on this car? A few days pass and a design team engineer says hey, we just sent an order to Foundry XYZ to get our internals done for our 2015 model year and they are compatible with the other components needed to make the MY14, so why don't we tag on an additional 300 units? So you do it. You make the cars and make money even with a slightly lower margin because the MY15 pistons cost more. And some very delighted 14 customers are tickled speechless. So key takeaways (TLDR): Modern production is about running as lean as possible to maximize return on investment. So when Ford orders it's parts the accountants decree that you get the X# parts to make Y cars assuming Z% defective/damaged parts. Because dormant capital doesn't make $$$ owners will run production lines 24/7/365 if they can sell units. This may mean using the same line for multiple parts in different production runs. Forecasting is like playing craps. I don't know much about the build process but I do know that forecasts are badly wrong more often than they are ballpark correct. Miss your forecast but can sell more units with a marginal benefit and you'll do it even if your bottom line is smaller in the additional units. Missing low is also better than missing high. So, we can conclude that the forecasters probably screwed the pooch, Ford wanted more units sold because they could still make money, even if they had to use 15 pistons because it would have been cost prohibitive to retool a line to make 14 pistons If you doubt this consider the alternative of this story; We don't know how many units we are gonna sell so we are gonna order a crap ton of parts and what ever we don't use we will roll over into the S550. Might have worked between 13 and 14, but not 14 and 15. The moment it was found out it would be a PR nightmare for Ford and everyone who had just bought an S550 would be steaming mad. But in the inverse scenario above... If my car has 15 parts I will be presently surprised. [/QUOTE]
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Build date for 14's that might have 15 engine parts?
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