BITCOIN

q6543

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@jvandy50 I have no concern about institutional ownership, it snuck its way on a few balance sheets.

Correlations are at 1 until the treasury and bond markets stabilize
 
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1995COBRA-R

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I just don't see the Bitcoin going higher in a down market.

All bonds and stocks are closing at record low prices. I have made more money going short (betting against Bitcoin) than all other investment exposures.
 

Rb0891

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It’s a good inflation hedge at the front of the curve. Apparently not so much when the shit hits the fan. And that is coming.
 

Weather Man

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Wintermute, a crypto market maker, loses $160M to hacker

Sep. 20, 2022 4:45 PM ET

  • Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute has been hacked for about $160M Tuesday within its decentralized finance operations, though its lending and over-the-counter services were not impacted.
  • "We’ve been hacked for about $160M in our defi operations. Cefi and OTC operations are not affected," Wintermute CEO and Founder Evgeny Gaevoy wrote in a series of Twitter posts.
  • Gaevoy noted that his company, which provides liquidity across a number of avenues, remains solvent "with twice over that amount in equity left." He didn't provide specifics on how the hack came about.
  • The London-based company is treating the issue as a "white hat" event, encouraging the hacker to come forward, Gaevoy said. Wintermute did not immediately respond to a request for comment by Seeking Alpha.
  • Wintermute is joining a growing list of crypto-related firms that have come under attack in recent months. For instance, bridge protocol Nomad said in August that it lost nearly $200M from hackers in a security exploit. And some 8K digital wallets were drained after Solana's hack.
 

1995COBRA-R

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It’s a good inflation hedge at the front of the curve.
The Bitcoin is not an inflation hedge. I actually use options to hedge my long positions.

I am betting against any upward movement in the Bitcoin price. I am in BITI which is an EFT betting against any higher price. Bitcoin is a bubble which will wash out in the upcoming 2023 Recession.
 

Weather Man

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The Bitcoin is not an inflation hedge. I actually use options to hedge my long positions.

I am betting against any upward movement in the Bitcoin price. I am in BITI which is an EFT betting against any higher price. Bitcoin is a bubble which will wash out in the upcoming 2023 Recession.

Economist Nouriel Roubini also expects a 75-bp increase at this meeting and 50-bp hikes at each of the following two meetings, bringing the rate to 4.0%-4.25% by year-end, he told Bloomberg in an interview. He sees a recession as inevitable. He expects that the funds rate will have to approach 5%. Bringing inflation down to the Fed's 2% goal without a hard landing is going to be a “mission impossible," Roubini said.

The economist, who correctly called the 2008 financial crisis, said, “It’s not going to be a short and shallow recession, it’s going to be severe, long and ugly." A "real hard" landing could spark a 40% drop in the S&P 500, he estimated.
 

Rb0891

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The Bitcoin is not an inflation hedge. I actually use options to hedge my long positions.

I am betting against any upward movement in the Bitcoin price. I am in BITI which is an EFT betting against any higher price. Bitcoin is a bubble which will wash out in the upcoming 2023 Recession.
No doubt. I only have it to margin trade, to the negative for the time being.

It will likely go back up at some point when everyone gets more flush with cash and is ready to gamble again. Course we have to go through the economic hell first.
 

598

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So whats the story with a digital gold? Like bitcoin but backed by gold so you could convert your currency to gold and use it in fractions. Thats the ticket.
 

1995COBRA-R

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Economist Nouriel Roubini also expects a 75-bp increase at this meeting and 50-bp hikes at each of the following two meetings, bringing the rate to 4.0%-4.25% by year-end, he told Bloomberg in an interview. He sees a recession as inevitable. He expects that the funds rate will have to approach 5%. Bringing inflation down to the Fed's 2% goal without a hard landing is going to be a “mission impossible," Roubini said.

The economist, who correctly called the 2008 financial crisis, said, “It’s not going to be a short and shallow recession, it’s going to be severe, long and ugly." A "real hard" landing could spark a 40% drop in the S&P 500, he estimated.
I mostly agree that next few months is not going to be anything but a bad bear market. It will test the new BIT owners.

I own some stocks that I have hedged my positions (with puts). I can't sell them without big taxes to the IRS.

I am well diversified over all asset classes including gold (not working well).
 

1995COBRA-R

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No doubt. I only have it to margin trade, to the negative for the time being.

It will likely go back up at some point when everyone gets more flush with cash and is ready to gamble again. Course we have to go through the economic hell first.
You know that margin means that you borrow money. If the shit hits the fan, you will not do well.
 

1995COBRA-R

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BTW, I think everyone should own some gold.

I bought it at $400-$600 oz. It's going lower than today's price. I'd buy it at $1200/oz. (real coins not the ETF).

The Bitcoin is just electronic units. Good luck buying food with it.
 

q6543

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As the economy is bottoming in this recession, I expect the market to be screaming towards fresh highs.

The economy is just now getting handed that first 1/4 bp hike from earlier this year.

The market has already digested almost 15X that amount.

Their pain is just beginning... ours is almost over, imho.
 

Rb0891

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You know that margin means that you borrow money. If the shit hits the fan, you will not do well.

Uh yes, I know this…. Why I am not in a trade more than a day or two. Problem is the basis is BTC so when I win a bit I have to trade out to stable coin.
 

Weather Man

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U.K. government unveils bill to 'seize, freeze and recover' crypto

Sep. 22, 2022 6:07 PM ET6 Comments

  • The U.K. government has introduced a bill in Parliament Thursday aimed at making it easier for authorities to "seize, freeze and recover" cryptocurrencies as part of an effort to crack down on money laundering activities.
  • The goal of the so-called Economic Crime and Corporate Transparency Bill, which was initially announced by King Charles in May, is to drive "dirty money" out of the country, the government said.
  • The bill would provide law enforcement agencies authority "to compel businesses to hand over information which could be related to money laundering or terrorist financing."
  • "Domestic and international criminals have for years laundered the proceeds of their crime and corruption by abusing UK company structures, and are increasingly using cryptocurrencies. These reforms – long awaited and much welcomed – will help us crack down on both," said Graeme Biggar, director general of the National Crime Agency, in a statement.
  • The legislation built on the earlier Economic Crime (Transparency and Enforcement) Act that helped lawmakers impose sanctions against Russia following its war in Ukraine.
  • In mid-July, the U.K. Treasury Committee opened an inquiry into the use of cryptos.
 

1995COBRA-R

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I just checked, sir.

The Bitcoin is falling which seems to correlate well with the growth stocks?

I heard that one Bitcoin platform will offer a 3% yield (in dollars) on Bitcoin deposits (not guaranteed, so it may happen?).

What do you think the Bitcoin value will increase going forward from today?

Is it your opinion that Bitcoin will be the best investment in the next 3 years? How do you calculate the intrinsic value?
 

jvandy50

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I missed the run up on DRV lately. These bear ETFs sure are nice for some green on a day when everything is Building Back Better

Edit: sorry wrong thread...was thinking of BITI and this short ETF ran across my mind.

That said, does anyone plan to use BITO when this thing reverses?
 

MG0h3

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I just checked, sir.

The Bitcoin is falling which seems to correlate well with the growth stocks?

I heard that one Bitcoin platform will offer a 3% yield (in dollars) on Bitcoin deposits (not guaranteed, so it may happen?).

What do you think the Bitcoin value will increase going forward from today?

Is it your opinion that Bitcoin will be the best investment in the next 3 years? How do you calculate the intrinsic value?

Oh I think it’s total nonsense!


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