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SVTPerformance's Chain of Restaurants
Road Side Pub
Thoughts on Real Estate- bubble burst or not?
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<blockquote data-quote="thomas91169" data-source="post: 16706860" data-attributes="member: 40530"><p>Everyone that says a burst isn't happening continually references the variables from 08 and states they aren't there to make it happen again. </p><p></p><p>Except there's nothing stating it may be a whole different set of variables that brings it down. </p><p></p><p>Tons of people are buying extremely high and over-extending their finances bc they're being told to buy now or you won't be able to again. All that needs happen is a decent recession that removes those people from their income, and bam, a shitton of homes are up for sale. If that happens supply rises and demand falls and values tank. </p><p></p><p>You also have stated with high property taxes that owners have seen their taxes double or triple in a few years thanks to nearly exponential rise in property values. Again, they end up over-extended now and if they lose jobs those homes go up for sale like above. If enough hit the market at once value drops wiping out the equity created the last few years so owners can't fall back on equity as their saving graces anymore. </p><p></p><p>You also have firms like Blackrock and Vanguard buying SFH at fever pitch bc they want to push everyone into renting from them. Problem is, if there's a recession and market dump, these firms may need to offload real estate to cover losses, and then like above supply increases while demand drops in a recession and values tank. </p><p></p><p>The big thing is all it takes is a major issue to put a bunch of homes on the market to change the paradigm.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="thomas91169, post: 16706860, member: 40530"] Everyone that says a burst isn't happening continually references the variables from 08 and states they aren't there to make it happen again. Except there's nothing stating it may be a whole different set of variables that brings it down. Tons of people are buying extremely high and over-extending their finances bc they're being told to buy now or you won't be able to again. All that needs happen is a decent recession that removes those people from their income, and bam, a shitton of homes are up for sale. If that happens supply rises and demand falls and values tank. You also have stated with high property taxes that owners have seen their taxes double or triple in a few years thanks to nearly exponential rise in property values. Again, they end up over-extended now and if they lose jobs those homes go up for sale like above. If enough hit the market at once value drops wiping out the equity created the last few years so owners can't fall back on equity as their saving graces anymore. You also have firms like Blackrock and Vanguard buying SFH at fever pitch bc they want to push everyone into renting from them. Problem is, if there's a recession and market dump, these firms may need to offload real estate to cover losses, and then like above supply increases while demand drops in a recession and values tank. The big thing is all it takes is a major issue to put a bunch of homes on the market to change the paradigm. [/QUOTE]
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SVTPerformance's Chain of Restaurants
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Thoughts on Real Estate- bubble burst or not?
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