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SVTPerformance's Chain of Restaurants
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The Random Weather Thread
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<blockquote data-quote="BOOGIE MAN" data-source="post: 16278113" data-attributes="member: 26082"><p>Things to keep in mind when you think about the track uncertainty of Dorian:</p><p></p><p>There's a 30% or greater chance of at least tropical storm force winds from the Keys all the way up to the Carolinas... I've seen models say eye landfall as far south as West Palm Beach and as far north as Palm Coast</p><p></p><p>The track error for day 3 forecast is ~100mi, day 4 ~150mi, day 5 ~200mi</p><p></p><p>Assuming recurving back to the Atlantic is not going to happen, when Dorian turns west will be determined by how strongly the subtropical ridge builds.</p><p></p><p>When Dorian turns north after its track across the state will be determined by how strong a trough is and when it will be arriving. This trough is now around the Pacific Northwest....on the other side of the country. </p><p></p><p>Special balloon launches start tomorrow as far West as Mobile, AL and as far north as Norman, OK. Normally, weather balloons are launched at 00Z and 12Z and get a vertical profile of the atmosphere. The data from all these balloons is used as initial conditions for weather models. When there's severe weather, special balloon launches are authorized for 06Z and 18Z on top of the normal 00z 12z. They're trying to get more frequent input data to better forecast when that trough will arrive. </p><p></p><p>Everyone on the east coast from the Keys all the way up to South Carolina needs to keep an eye on this thing, and people from West Palm north to Jax need to start thinking about preparations.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="BOOGIE MAN, post: 16278113, member: 26082"] Things to keep in mind when you think about the track uncertainty of Dorian: There's a 30% or greater chance of at least tropical storm force winds from the Keys all the way up to the Carolinas... I've seen models say eye landfall as far south as West Palm Beach and as far north as Palm Coast The track error for day 3 forecast is ~100mi, day 4 ~150mi, day 5 ~200mi Assuming recurving back to the Atlantic is not going to happen, when Dorian turns west will be determined by how strongly the subtropical ridge builds. When Dorian turns north after its track across the state will be determined by how strong a trough is and when it will be arriving. This trough is now around the Pacific Northwest....on the other side of the country. Special balloon launches start tomorrow as far West as Mobile, AL and as far north as Norman, OK. Normally, weather balloons are launched at 00Z and 12Z and get a vertical profile of the atmosphere. The data from all these balloons is used as initial conditions for weather models. When there's severe weather, special balloon launches are authorized for 06Z and 18Z on top of the normal 00z 12z. They're trying to get more frequent input data to better forecast when that trough will arrive. Everyone on the east coast from the Keys all the way up to South Carolina needs to keep an eye on this thing, and people from West Palm north to Jax need to start thinking about preparations. [/QUOTE]
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