THE FUTURE COLLECTIBILITY AND VALUE OF OUR 2013/2014 SHELBY GT500s...

[Marc]

I have had it two weeks shy of a full year now and it has 5,350 miles on it. That's much more than I will put on in a typical year but I wanted to ensure I didn't have the clutch or rear end whine that others experienced on here within the first 12 months where Ford is much more likely to do something about it. I do enjoy driving mine in nice weather and having fun spirited drives but it is also the Queen of my garage and meticulously maintained. I go back and forth on minor engine mods such as tune, TB, CAI, pulley, etc. but have done nothing yet.

Pretty much describes my car. I have owned it 1 year and almost 5000 miles. I drove it a lot this year to get it broke in. I suspect, I will only put around 3000 miles a year on it.

I bought it as a toy. Something to have fun in. I had a 04 cobra that had just as much HP, but wasn't smooth like the Shelby.

I didn't buy it as a investment. You drive these things you get wear and tear, rock chips here and there, etc... If you have a but-load of money to burn, buy one and stick it in a climate control bubble. Buying cars as a investment is one of the worst investments for us typical Joes.

I enjoy this car. It is a expensive toy, but its worth it.

 

[Lethalchem]

I agree and disagree. I have always said this is the one investment I can take out and enjoy a little if I take good care of it and keep it properly maintained. While I do drive my car when it is nice outside I also don't see a problem if someone buys one strictly as an investment (I did not) and stored it from the day they bought it. You can't drive your stocks and mutual funds can you? At least that person could actually look at and touch this investment purchase! I put a ton in the market and can't enjoy any of that until I sell those stocks and funds for what I hope to be a profit (and usually is). At least here I can enjoy this asset and if it appreciates great and if no, it won't depreciate much and I will still have a lot of great time enjoying its use. :rockon:

Yeah, but as you said, you're still driving it. We have 3 vehicles so the Shelby gets to enjoy nice weather driving only, and has never seen rain since I got it in January. However, I've had it to the drag strip, autocross, and will be taking it to a road course Nov 7th. It still gets used the way it was meant to. The "lose" part of my equation I mentioned earlier is when people start thinking money is more valuable than experiences. :coolman:

 

[VRYALT3R3D]

I think it will hold its value reasonably well, but not appreciate.

 

[SlowVert]

I saw an article a few months back in the USA today (read it on my phone when I train to/from work). It listed the 13/14 GT500 as the car to best hold it's value over the next 5 years - this was compared to all other American cars made.

So that backs up what most have stated about the 13/14 holding value - but decreasing.... the article didn't say anything about it going in up in value in 5 years... I wish it would - but I'd also wish it came with tires that allow me to drive it during the months of Nov-Mar!!!!

Honestly - in 25 or more years - any remaining good condition, low mileage cars will have some value. It took 30+ years for the 60's Mustangs to start yielding some return... even then.... if you factor the original price of the cars and inflation - they aren't making a killing if anything.... granted every now and then a 4K mile 1969 SCJ goes for some ridiculous sum... but on average I bet the ROI isn't there on anything reasonably used.

J.

 

[PaleRider]

I've heard that there will be no 2015 GT500 if so the value should be good for the 13/14 GT500's

 

[Chris!]

The car won't appreciate. Even if it does, it won't keep up with inflation. Even if it does, it won't be in 15 years.

The $55k-$69k 2013/2014 gt500 will depreciate, and probably hit a plateau, somewhere in the $46-52k range in 10-15 years

Similar to the $34-37k 03/04 Cobra which has hit a plateau of $23-27k for clean, sub 25k mile examples, 10 years later.

I don't care about the fact they made 2x as many 03/04 cobras than 13/14 GT500s. This is a different kind of car, in a different kind of economy, different type of car buyer

It was also a very different time and mindset for the automaker, they built as many as they could and rammed them down dealers throats, even had to come up with a "power lease" to move them at the time.

In 03/04 there wasn't as much competition, no Camaro, challenger/charger, GTR, etc. The z06 was not in the same class at the time, but was its only REAL competitor, that wasnt a competitor at the time

There are other options for consumers now.


It's a great car. It's not an investment or an asset. It's an expense. And expensive toy.


Someone save this, and in 10 years, pull it back up. Mark my words. This is what will happen.

 

[USV8PWR]

The car won't appreciate. Even if it does, it won't keep up with inflation. Even if it does, it won't be in 15 years.

The $55k-$69k 2013/2014 gt500 will depreciate, and probably hit a plateau, somewhere in the $46-52k range in 10-15 years

Similar to the $34-37k 03/04 Cobra which has hit a plateau of $23-27k for clean, sub 25k mile examples, 10 years later.

I don't care about the fact they made 2x as many 03/04 cobras than 13/14 GT500s. This is a different kind of car, in a different kind of economy, different type of car buyer

It was also a very different time and mindset for the automaker, they built as many as they could and rammed them down dealers throats, even had to come up with a "power lease" to move them at the time.

In 03/04 there wasn't as much competition, no Camaro, challenger/charger, GTR, etc. The z06 was not in the same class at the time, but was its only REAL competitor, that wasnt a competitor at the time

There are other options for consumers now.


It's a great car. It's not an investment or an asset. It's an expense. And expensive toy.


Someone save this, and in 10 years, pull it back up. Mark my words. This is what will happen.

Whew...just got home from work and have a lot of replying to do!! LOL! But great post Chris, you know I always respect your opinions and thoughts.

I do disagree with it not mattering that twice as many 03/04 Cobra's were built (numbers don't lie and they always matter), that this is a different type of car, a different type of economy, and a different type of buyer. As you stated in your post, it's no secret that Ford had to start giving the 03/04 Cobra's away as they were way, way overbuilt (especially for a very struggling econonomy). With that said, those cars have held their resale value very, very well in spite of being overbuilt and outdone by the latest Mustang GT, nevermind the Shelby. This time Ford seem to realize we are ALSO in a struggling economy (much like years 2002 to 2003 if not somewhat better...the market is much better anyway) and that building too much of a good thing is...well not good and therefore has only granted a certain number of allocations. I'm sure you know plenty of dealers who would have gladly order more of this latest and greatest Shelby over the past 1.5 years, and sell them, if given the chance from Ford. Maybe the dealers couldn't sell 8,700 more as they did in 03/04, but they would sell more, competition or no competition (unless they were black). This is a very similar type of car; it's Ford's flagship Mustang. However, the difference is more people around the world and also once brand loyal folks want these cars because of the bench marks it set and the end of an era it represents. It may be somewhat also badging and hype, but this car makes way more of a statement with Shelby's name than the Cobra ever did by itself. And I believe the buyers are very similar. The majority of us all have huge egos and need to be seen driving an absurdly powerful muscle car, LOL! The only other cars I even considered at all to this one was a used Corvette ZR1 or a 2009/2010 Dodge Viper ACR.

Let's definitely mark your post here as well as my original post and just see what happens. Also, I want to firmly state again in this thread that I believe the next gen car won't be as quick as the 2013/2014 Shelby GT500 regardless of how much it weighs and that does who believe it will be will be severly disappointed. Either way, I will still have my car and be enjoying it for a long time to come.

 

[USV8PWR]

JMO, but anyone buying one of these cars as an investment is being willfully blind. Drive it and enjoy it, that's the only payoff you're likely to ever see from this "investment".

This is a willfully blind statement. The same kind of statement could be used to say that all stocks are great buys, or poor buys, or that all land purchases are smart investments. Please at least give me an example of a car that was, or was not, a poor investment so that I can explain why it was so. Not just a blind stereotypical statement, lol. Come on man, test me!

Pretty much describes my car. I have owned it 1 year and almost 5000 miles. I drove it a lot this year to get it broke in. I suspect, I will only put around 3000 miles a year on it.

I bought it as a toy. Something to have fun in. I had a 04 cobra that had just as much HP, but wasn't smooth like the Shelby.

I didn't buy it as a investment. You drive these things you get wear and tear, rock chips here and there, etc... If you have a but-load of money to burn, buy one and stick it in a climate control bubble. Buying cars as a investment is one of the worst investments for us typical Joes.

I enjoy this car. It is a expensive toy, but its worth it.

I agree Marc. I didn't buy the car as an investment and don't have the money (or the personality) to just let it sit in a climate control bubble. But I keep it extremely well maintained and would also never let it go for less than I paid for either. Man do I enjoy this car! :rockon:

Yeah, but as you said, you're still driving it. We have 3 vehicles so the Shelby gets to enjoy nice weather driving only, and has never seen rain since I got it in January. However, I've had it to the drag strip, autocross, and will be taking it to a road course Nov 7th. It still gets used the way it was meant to. The "lose" part of my equation I mentioned earlier is when people start thinking money is more valuable than experiences. :coolman:

I completely agree with that Brother! I too have 2 other vehicles (I just purchased a 2013 Ford F-150 XLT Supercrew with the 6.2L last month) and also a work car. But I still try to drive it when it's nice and have some fun it in. I haven't raced it yet but I have done the dyno and a couple road trips. But I'm also glad I dont' have to drive it all of the time and/or rely on it. I'm 35 now and would not want to drive this manual car all of the time. Plus if you only drive a few thousand miles a year you don't have to replace tires every single year!!

I've heard that there will be no 2015 GT500 if so the value should be good for the 13/14 GT500's

Uh, that's a given. There won't be a GT500/GT350/Cobra until at least 2016.

 

[USV8PWR]

JMO, but anyone buying one of these cars as an investment is being willfully blind. Drive it and enjoy it, that's the only payoff you're likely to ever see from this "investment".

Here's a couple that come to mind...

1978 Corvette Indy Pace Car - Major investment flop. They built 6,500 or so of these and because it was featured on the cover of Wall Street journal and other hype people started buying them and storing them away thinking they would be gold. Which now some of them may start to bring in more than they stickered for but definitely a flop. Why? Obviously, the later C3s were unreliable, underpowered, and when the C4 came around irrelevant. The only reason these will gain now is due to nostalgia.

1990 to 1995 Corvette ZR1 - Major investment flop. They built 5K or so of these cars at $30K addition to a base Vette. Many folks stored them away thinking they would be worth gold later on. Unfortunately none of them realized the performance war was just heating up and that a car that at the time could do an incredible high 12 quarter mile and run 180 miles an hour would not be able to keep pace on ANY performance benchmark of even the standard Corvette by the time 2005 came around. Not only are the newer Vettes quicker, faster, have more features, and are safer, they get better fuel economy too. However, these cars will begin to go back up in value once the majority of them are gone. And this will come pretty soon. They have gotten so cheap now that many dirtbags have bought them up and destroyed them. Very sad ending for a car that was one of the American supercars of the 90's.

1992 to 2010 Dodge Viper-Major investment flop. Regardless of year and/or special edition they were always hurt by one major factor...the next one was always much, much better. And more powerful. Who wants an earlier 450HP GTS Viper from the 90's when 500HP became standard with the 2003 model, 600HP was the standard with the 2008, and a whopping 640HP complete with a mcuh modern and nicer interior became the standard for 2013??? But again, one day there will be very few older unmolested Vipers remaining (already seeing that now actually) and they will go up.

1994-1999, 2001 Ford Cobra SVT-Again, the cars kept getting a lot better with a lot more performance. The 2003/2004 cars made the 1999/2001 and earlier ones obsolete performance wise over night. Same with the R models. Love the R models and they fit the build for extremely low production. But as it has been shown, it doesn't just depend on low production it also really depends on stats. The production cars became better the race versions or earlier SVT models. We now have V6 Mustangs that are quicker than the early SVT Cobra models. As said in my original thread a new 2013 Shelby GT can do everything a 2003 SVT Cobra can, with more features, better fuel economy, and more comfortably. There there is the new Shelby!

Just a few that come to my mind and why they dropped like bricks. If the next gen Mustang annihlates this one as the previous 3 decades did over the decade before it then yes, this car will just be another great performer with semi-typical resale values yet still influenced by the fact that they were never overproduced at the beginning.

 

[LazyBird]

As an aside. As for stock prices going up all you are seeing is inflation (increase in the supply of money). It is impossible for the stock market (as a whole) to go up long term without this. With a finite supply of money any increase in the stock prices will be offset by reduced consumer spending (spent their money on stocks instead) which will impact on sales, then earnings, forcing stock prices back down.

I enjoyed your post, but I'm a bit puzzled by this part.

For one thing, in my opinion, it is not so much an increase in the money supply that is driving the stock market higher; rather, it is the FED purchasing bonds and Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, thereby keeping interest rates artificially low and making the stock market the preferable place for investors -- and unfortunately, even savers -- who want to stay ahead of inflation. The FED is printing money and buying debt, not stocks.

Second, when stocks rise, it creates a "wealth effect" (of which I'm sure you're familiar), which makes people feel wealthier (perhaps more than they really are), in which case they spend money, which creates demand and consumption, which creates productivity, and more productivity creates ... well, you know where I'm going. I'm not fluent in the monetarist school, but where I come from, more productivity creates more wealth, regardless of whether the FED prints more money.

Third, you claim that it is impossible for stocks to rise with a finite money supply. That may be true in today's environment. But might it also be true that, in a finite state, the value of stocks, and for that matter, the Dollar (as a store of value) increase in value relative to productivity and therefore purchasing power? Didn't the stock market -- and the U.S. GDP -- increase prior to the creation of the FED and prior to it inflating the economy?

As for the future value of my GT500? As with my house, I couldn't care less. I plan to die in one or the other.

Rick

 

[jbs$]

At my age, green banners are a long term investment. I am going to drive the car, enjoy it and let other worry about such issues.

 

[USV8PWR]

I updated the final point in my original paragraph along with the last two summary paragraphs. Enjoy!

 

[USV8PWR]

At my age, green banners are a long term investment. I am going to drive the car, enjoy it and let other worry about such issues.

LOL...you should enjoy it Sir! And this is not directed to you in particular at all, but the fewer folks who have 0 a care about long term value the stronger my hypothesis will be. As those are the folks who are much more likely to treat and use their cars abusively without any concern for what could potentially happen down the road.

 

[Gabed1972]

Groups may not be worth much but the convertibles will...

The car won't appreciate. Even if it does, it won't keep up with inflation. Even if it does, it won't be in 15 years.

The $55k-$69k 2013/2014 gt500 will depreciate, and probably hit a plateau, somewhere in the $46-52k range in 10-15 years

Similar to the $34-37k 03/04 Cobra which has hit a plateau of $23-27k for clean, sub 25k mile examples, 10 years later.

I don't care about the fact they made 2x as many 03/04 cobras than 13/14 GT500s. This is a different kind of car, in a different kind of economy, different type of car buyer

It was also a very different time and mindset for the automaker, they built as many as they could and rammed them down dealers throats, even had to come up with a "power lease" to move them at the time.

In 03/04 there wasn't as much competition, no Camaro, challenger/charger, GTR, etc. The z06 was not in the same class at the time, but was its only REAL competitor, that wasnt a competitor at the time

There are other options for consumers now.


It's a great car. It's not an investment or an asset. It's an expense. And expensive toy.


Someone save this, and in 10 years, pull it back up. Mark my words. This is what will happen.

The coupes might not be worth much in the future but the convertibles definitely will....

You're talking less than 2000 cars over the two-year run.

It also has the most horsepower and any American muscle car/convertible ever produced. Also last one with the Shelby nameplate, the beautiful retro style and
Likely to be the last "big block" cars made for this foreseeable future.

Any American muscle cars that have been produced in numbers less than 2000 over time have all become collectible. We can all agree to disagree but I believe convertibles are definitely going to be collectible one day considering the two-year run with the 5.8 engine and such low quantities being produced.

Remember in the past all the muscle cars that are worth the most other ones the people wanted the least...

:dancenana:

 

[USV8PWR]

The coupes might not be worth much in the future but the convertibles definitely will....

You're talking less than 2000 cars over the two-year run.

It also has the most horsepower and any American muscle car/convertible ever produced. Also last one with the Shelby nameplate, the beautiful retro style and
Likely to be the last "big block" cars made for this foreseeable future.

Any American muscle cars that have been produced in numbers less than 2000 over time have all become collectible. We can all agree to disagree but I believe convertibles are definitely going to be collectible one day considering the two-year run with the 5.8 engine and such low quantities being produced.

Remember in the past all the muscle cars that are worth the most other ones the people wanted the least...

:dancenana:

Good point! Talk about exclusive, the convertibles will likely see some appreciation even sooner. You can argue to a point that the reason the convertibles weren't produced in higher numbers was simply because there was much less demand. And while that is somewhat true and partly due from us folks who overwhelmingly ordered their cars in the coupe style the actual biggest reason is that the dealers didn't order them due to the fact that it is typically much easier to sell a coupe then a convertible; especially up North. While no doubt the demand for a convertible will always be much lower than a coupe there will ALWAYS be those (especially in the South) who want a car where they can put the top down. Except with less than 2,000 cars it will become very difficult, very quickly to find a clean 2013/2014 Shelby GT500 convertible available for sale at a depreciated price. I know one great guy on here that has over 20K on his 2013 convertible and will likely never let it go. So there is one less!

The convertible people could potentially see some amazing prices being obtained on the used market within just a few short years after this model run is over, and likely somewhat quicker then the extra produced Coupe. Although the much, much greater demand for the Coupe will definitely help over come the majority of the approximately 6,500 extra of those that were built in excess of the approximately 2,000 Convertible production #. Limited production alone doesn't just have to exist so much as demand for the item. That's why that although the later 1995 and 2000 Cobra R models that, which were built in very limited quantities of only 250 and 300 each respectively, have also still dropped incredibly in value. The demand wasn't there (because the standard Mustang Cobra/Shelby cars became much better and more powerful over time) regardless of how few of them were built.

 

[Simon_C]

The FED is printing money and buying debt, not stocks.

This is correct but doesn't tell the full story. As you know, it is unlawful for the FED to buy treasuries directly from the Treasury (monetizing the debt). When the US Govt. issues treasuries, these are purchased by investment banks at a discount to market. These are then sold to the Federal Reserve. It is this money that is being invested by investment banks on stock markets as opposed to being lent. Last time I checked banks were near 100 percent reserves.

I do agree that low interest rates make stocks more attractive and this certainly is a factor. And QE unlimited means that the FED is actively buying mortgages. So I agree that not all stimulus inflates the stock market.

I am grounded in the Austrian School of Economics. I can categorically state that spending does not create productivity. It is only the Austrian School that links interest rates to the structure of production. It is savings that increase productivity. Savings are invested in capital goods which make labor more productive. Productivity is output per given factor of production. In a productive economy things get cheaper not more expensive. Look at computers.

At the very best all spending can do is maintain the status quo. But even this can only be short term as capital goods wear out and need replacing.

There have been central banks in the US prior to 1913. But even if there weren’t, inflation can be caused by fractional reserve banking as well as printing money.

To prove that the stock market has been inflated compare P/Es from the 1980s to today’s P/Es. And this is even with inflated earnings due to today's controversial accounting practices allowing corporations to hide losses. If dividends (which can’t be manipulated) are used as a proxy for reported earnings then P/Es are very high.

Now, I need to link this back to Shelbys to desperately try and stay on topic. As you know, inflation is not uniform. The first person to get the newly printed money gets full purchasing power and the purchasing power diminishes with circulation.

Given the demographic of the average Shelby buyer (such as me), by the time the money gets to us it has been devalued. Consequently, as we are using devalued currency it takes more dollars to get the asset. So the Shelby should keep up with inflation? Unfortunately, since wages and salaries lag behind inflation, in an inflationary environment people’s disposable income typically falls. When the average consumer spends more on food and rent they have less for luxury items such as Shelbys.

So unless the demographic of Shelby buyers changes I would not expect Shelbys to keep up with inflation.

As you said – buy it to drive it and enjoy it.

 

[Gabed1972]

This is correct but doesn't tell the full story. As you know, it is unlawful for the FED to buy treasuries directly from the Treasury (monetizing the debt). When the US Govt. issues treasuries, these are purchased by investment banks at a discount to market. These are then sold to the Federal Reserve. It is this money that is being invested by investment banks on stock markets as opposed to being lent. Last time I checked banks were near 100 percent reserves.

I do agree that low interest rates make stocks more attractive and this certainly is a factor. And QE unlimited means that the FED is actively buying mortgages. So I agree that not all stimulus inflates the stock market.

I am grounded in the Austrian School of Economics. I can categorically state that spending does not create productivity. It is only the Austrian School that links interest rates to the structure of production. It is savings that increase productivity. Savings are invested in capital goods which make labor more productive. Productivity is output per given factor of production. In a productive economy things get cheaper not more expensive. Look at computers.

At the very best all spending can do is maintain the status quo. But even this can only be short term as capital goods wear out and need replacing.

There have been central banks in the US prior to 1913. But even if there weren’t, inflation can be caused by fractional reserve banking as well as printing money.

To prove that the stock market has been inflated compare P/Es from the 1980s to today’s P/Es. And this is even with inflated earnings due to today's controversial accounting practices allowing corporations to hide losses. If dividends (which can’t be manipulated) are used as a proxy for reported earnings then P/Es are very high.

Now, I need to link this back to Shelbys to desperately try and stay on topic. As you know, inflation is not uniform. The first person to get the newly printed money gets full purchasing power and the purchasing power diminishes with circulation.

Given the demographic of the average Shelby buyer (such as me), by the time the money gets to us it has been devalued. Consequently, as we are using devalued currency it takes more dollars to get the asset. So the Shelby should keep up with inflation? Unfortunately, since wages and salaries lag behind inflation, in an inflationary environment people’s disposable income typically falls. When the average consumer spends more on food and rent they have less for luxury items such as Shelbys.

So unless the demographic of Shelby buyers changes I would not expect Shelbys to keep up with inflation.

As you said – buy it to drive it and enjoy it.

Let's just say that these cars are similar to the end of the big block muscle cars of the late 60's. Sure in time the technology will improve but with the Government mandating more fuel efficiency and higher MPG's I don't think you're going to see this kind of raw torque/HP in the next few years.

Plus the classic style of these car's are timeless and will be head turners for a long time to come & as the years go by and there are less and less on the road the price will drop initially and recover over time...

Either way I plan to keep mine for next 10-15yrs to find out :rockon:

 

[evil eye]

The coupes might not be worth much in the future but the convertibles definitely will....

You're talking less than 2000 cars over the two-year run.

It also has the most horsepower and any American muscle car/convertible ever produced. Also last one with the Shelby nameplate, the beautiful retro style and
Likely to be the last "big block" cars made for this foreseeable future.

Any American muscle cars that have been produced in numbers less than 2000 over time have all become collectible. We can all agree to disagree but I believe convertibles are definitely going to be collectible one day considering the two-year run with the 5.8 engine and such low quantities being produced.

Remember in the past all the muscle cars that are worth the most other ones the people wanted the least...

:dancenana:

While I agree with this, I do have an argument against it. I originally was looking at a convertible, but turned towards the coupe because of the amount of options. The vert doesn't have the Track Pack and obviously glass roof as options. A lot of these older collector cars are desired for options that weren't popular at the time and are considered rare (i.e. air conditioning) Also, the vert is speed limited to 155. One of the great claims to the 13/14 GT500 is that it's the first Mustang to reach 200mph. So while the convertible certainly has rarity on its side, it's also missing a few things that only the coupe has.

 

[Simon_C]

Let's just say that these cars are similar to the end of the big block muscle cars of the late 60's. Sure in time the technology will improve but with the Government mandating more fuel efficiency and higher MPG's I don't think you're going to see this kind of raw torque/HP in the next few years.

Plus the classic style of these car's are timeless and will be head turners for a long time to come & as the years go by and there are less and less on the road the price will drop initially and recover over time...

Either way I plan to keep mine for next 10-15yrs to find out :rockon:

I think what you say is entirely possible. I wasn't intending to imply that inflationary concerns were the be all and end all. I was just throwing it out there - mainly to try and stay on topic. I know what you're saying about the chance of these cars being the last true muscle cars of this era and that was certainly a factor in my decision.

As for head turners ...

I hope to pick up my car today. It arrived on Monday (10 delivery miles and supercharger still locked) and the dealer let me have it for a few hours to test drive and to remove all the bits of paper that I wanted to keep. I had only been driving it for 5 minutes when I noticed someone in the lane next to me taking photos with his iPhone.

So yes, as you've said, there is a unique factor that will certainly push prices upwards.

Mine's a keeper too :beer:

 

[P49Y-CY]

of course it is all speculation and no one can predict the future, but I would say the 13/14 Shelby gt500's are definitely going to be the most desireable of all the s197 chassis. the top of the line trim/horsepower package for any change in bodystyle/chassis usually is.

as jay leno says regarding future collectability... buy a car that you personally love. that way if it appreciates great, but if it doesn't, at least you still have a car that you love and love to drive.