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SVTPerformance's Chain of Restaurants
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SVTP stock pick thread.
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<blockquote data-quote="Weather Man" data-source="post: 16728897" data-attributes="member: 137766"><p>The major investment houses are in serious CYA mode this morning!</p><p></p><h3>Morgan Stanley says investors are too optimistic, warns of earnings 'payback'</h3><p>Feb. 07, 2022 7:41 AM ET<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPY?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3ASPY" target="_blank">SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)</a><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3ASP500" target="_blank">SP500</a><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/user/51784941/profile?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cbutton%3Aauthor_name%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">By: Kim Khan</a>, SA News Editor</p><p></p><p><img src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1001204422/image_1001204422.jpg?io=getty-c-w750" alt="football chart" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></p><p>Kameleon007/iStock via Getty Images</p><p></p><p>It is time for investors to double up on defensive positioning as Wall Street faces earnings payback, Morgan Stanley says.</p><p>"We have longheld the view that payback was coming in 1H2022 as the extraordinary fiscal stimulus faded, monetary policy tightened and supply caught up with demand in many end markets," chief equity strategist Mike Wilson wrote in a note Monday.</p><p>"Over the past few weeks several leading companies that weren't supposed to see this payback have disappointed with weaker than expected guidance," Wilson said. "These stocks were punished severely and we think there may be even more disappointment to come as 1Q turns out to be weaker than expected for consumption."</p><p>"Consumer confidence remains in the tank due to higher prices with our recent Alpha Wise survey suggesting Consumers across the income spectrum are expecting to spend more on staples categories over the next 6 months vs the last 6 months. Spending on durables, consumer electronics, and travel/leisure is expected to decline for lower income cohorts in particular."</p><p>Morgan Stanley has favored defensive sectors since November.</p><p>"With last week's modest rally in cyclicals relative to defensives we think it's a good time to double up on this particular pair, especially with the further fall in PMIs and flattening of the rate curves. Other pairs worth consideration are defensives over inflation plays and low levered companies over highly levered ones," Wilson said.</p><p>"The overall earnings surprise rate for companies in the S&P 500 (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">SP500</a>) (NYSEARCA:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPY?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">SPY</a>) stands at 6.1% - just above the long term median of 5%," he added. "This represents a significant decline from the past 6 quarters when beats ranged from 11% - 22%. Companies that are beating estimates this quarter are doing so by a much lower margin."</p><p>BofA says these three questions need a "yes" for <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/3796251-these-three-questions-need-a-yes-for-bulls-to-keep-charging-bofa-says?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews" target="_blank">stocks to move higher</a>.</p><p><a href="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/2/7/saupload_MS_earnings_surprise_020722.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/2/7/saupload_MS_earnings_surprise_020722_thumb1.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Weather Man, post: 16728897, member: 137766"] The major investment houses are in serious CYA mode this morning! [HEADING=2]Morgan Stanley says investors are too optimistic, warns of earnings 'payback'[/HEADING] Feb. 07, 2022 7:41 AM ET[URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPY?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3ASPY']SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)[/URL][URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csymbol%3ASP500']SP500[/URL][URL='https://seekingalpha.com/user/51784941/profile?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Csection_asset%3Ameta%7Cbutton%3Aauthor_name%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']By: Kim Khan[/URL], SA News Editor [IMG alt="football chart"]https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1001204422/image_1001204422.jpg?io=getty-c-w750[/IMG] Kameleon007/iStock via Getty Images It is time for investors to double up on defensive positioning as Wall Street faces earnings payback, Morgan Stanley says. "We have longheld the view that payback was coming in 1H2022 as the extraordinary fiscal stimulus faded, monetary policy tightened and supply caught up with demand in many end markets," chief equity strategist Mike Wilson wrote in a note Monday. "Over the past few weeks several leading companies that weren't supposed to see this payback have disappointed with weaker than expected guidance," Wilson said. "These stocks were punished severely and we think there may be even more disappointment to come as 1Q turns out to be weaker than expected for consumption." "Consumer confidence remains in the tank due to higher prices with our recent Alpha Wise survey suggesting Consumers across the income spectrum are expecting to spend more on staples categories over the next 6 months vs the last 6 months. Spending on durables, consumer electronics, and travel/leisure is expected to decline for lower income cohorts in particular." Morgan Stanley has favored defensive sectors since November. "With last week's modest rally in cyclicals relative to defensives we think it's a good time to double up on this particular pair, especially with the further fall in PMIs and flattening of the rate curves. Other pairs worth consideration are defensives over inflation plays and low levered companies over highly levered ones," Wilson said. "The overall earnings surprise rate for companies in the S&P 500 ([URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']SP500[/URL]) (NYSEARCA:[URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPY?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']SPY[/URL]) stands at 6.1% - just above the long term median of 5%," he added. "This represents a significant decline from the past 6 quarters when beats ranged from 11% - 22%. Companies that are beating estimates this quarter are doing so by a much lower margin." BofA says these three questions need a "yes" for [URL='https://seekingalpha.com/news/3796251-these-three-questions-need-a-yes-for-bulls-to-keep-charging-bofa-says?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews']stocks to move higher[/URL]. [URL='https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/2/7/saupload_MS_earnings_surprise_020722.png'][IMG]https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/2/7/saupload_MS_earnings_surprise_020722_thumb1.png[/IMG][/URL] [/QUOTE]
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