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SVTPerformance's Chain of Restaurants
Road Side Pub
SVTP stock pick thread.
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<blockquote data-quote="Weather Man" data-source="post: 16728886" data-attributes="member: 137766"><p><h3><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/3796251-these-three-questions-need-a-yes-for-bulls-to-keep-charging-bofa-says?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Amarket-news%7Csection_asset%3Amain" target="_blank">These three questions need a 'yes' for bulls to keep charging, BofA says</a></h3><p><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPY?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Amarket-news%7Csection_asset%3Amain" target="_blank">SPY +0.47%</a>Feb. 07, 2022 6:41 AM ET<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/3796251-these-three-questions-need-a-yes-for-bulls-to-keep-charging-bofa-says?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Amarket-news%7Csection_asset%3Amain#scroll_comments" target="_blank">4 Comments</a></p><p>The Fed is hiking into overvalued global credit and U.S. stock markets and there is potential for a crash this year, according to BofA.</p><p>Chief Investment Strategist Josh Hartnett and team wrote in the latest Flow Show note that "almost all of 10 hiking cycles in past 50 years started with trailing S&P 500 (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500" target="_blank">SP500</a>) (NYSEARCA:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPY" target="_blank">SPY</a>) PE of ~16x."</p><p>The exceptions are 1999 with P/E of 25.7x and now at 22.4x.</p><p><a href="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/2/4/saupload_BoA_hiking_020422.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/2/4/saupload_BoA_hiking_020422_thumb1.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a></p><p>For stocks, the "bull case requires affirmative to 3 biggest investment questions of 2022," Hartnett said.</p><ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Will the Fed engineer a soft landing?</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Are we early-cycle in the investment cycle?</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Will the Fed blink?</li> </ol><p>The stable terminal rate priced in by the markets could be interpreted that the Fed will "stick the landing," he said. In that Goldilocks scenario it's early-cycle, the froth has been removed and the market is simply nine months into The Great Consolidation post-COVID.</p><p>But in his view the low Fed terminal rate is a sign the markets anticipation late-cycle valuation that "that will be corrected via crash & the Fed blinks."</p><p>Hartnett and team are short tech, credit and private equity as the era of QE is over.</p><p>They are long volatility, high quality and defensives on tighter financial conditions and oil, energy and real assets on inflation. They are also long EAFE and EM banks on global reoping and rate hikes and China, Asian and EM credit on distressed yields, while long a barbell of distressed and defensive assets.</p><p>"We believe cash, volatility, commodities, EM to outperform credit, stocks & private equity in 2022."</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Weather Man, post: 16728886, member: 137766"] [HEADING=2][URL='https://seekingalpha.com/news/3796251-these-three-questions-need-a-yes-for-bulls-to-keep-charging-bofa-says?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Amarket-news%7Csection_asset%3Amain']These three questions need a 'yes' for bulls to keep charging, BofA says[/URL][/HEADING] [URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPY?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Amarket-news%7Csection_asset%3Amain']SPY +0.47%[/URL]Feb. 07, 2022 6:41 AM ET[URL='https://seekingalpha.com/news/3796251-these-three-questions-need-a-yes-for-bulls-to-keep-charging-bofa-says?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Amarket-news%7Csection_asset%3Amain#scroll_comments']4 Comments[/URL] The Fed is hiking into overvalued global credit and U.S. stock markets and there is potential for a crash this year, according to BofA. Chief Investment Strategist Josh Hartnett and team wrote in the latest Flow Show note that "almost all of 10 hiking cycles in past 50 years started with trailing S&P 500 ([URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500']SP500[/URL]) (NYSEARCA:[URL='https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPY']SPY[/URL]) PE of ~16x." The exceptions are 1999 with P/E of 25.7x and now at 22.4x. [URL='https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/2/4/saupload_BoA_hiking_020422.png'][IMG]https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/2/4/saupload_BoA_hiking_020422_thumb1.png[/IMG][/URL] For stocks, the "bull case requires affirmative to 3 biggest investment questions of 2022," Hartnett said. [LIST=1] [*]Will the Fed engineer a soft landing? [*]Are we early-cycle in the investment cycle? [*]Will the Fed blink? [/LIST] The stable terminal rate priced in by the markets could be interpreted that the Fed will "stick the landing," he said. In that Goldilocks scenario it's early-cycle, the froth has been removed and the market is simply nine months into The Great Consolidation post-COVID. But in his view the low Fed terminal rate is a sign the markets anticipation late-cycle valuation that "that will be corrected via crash & the Fed blinks." Hartnett and team are short tech, credit and private equity as the era of QE is over. They are long volatility, high quality and defensives on tighter financial conditions and oil, energy and real assets on inflation. They are also long EAFE and EM banks on global reoping and rate hikes and China, Asian and EM credit on distressed yields, while long a barbell of distressed and defensive assets. "We believe cash, volatility, commodities, EM to outperform credit, stocks & private equity in 2022." [/QUOTE]
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