SVTP stock pick thread.

BlckBox04

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No way this is just from tariffs... politics, recession fears. Trump is shaking everything up and will be for a while. who know how long it will last. Trump himself said dont watch the market... he knows it'll be volatile and he's usually one who gauges his success off market performance...
I honestly feel like part of it is these huge hedge funds that hate Trump are dumping positions purposely to cause a lot of volatility and ruining the entire market
 

poisoned apple

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I honestly feel like part of it is these huge hedge funds that hate Trump are dumping positions purposely to cause a lot of volatility and ruining the entire market
It's possible, but i doubt it. Trump might be intentionally tanking the market and not ruling out a recession so he can get a rate drop from Powell. idk. The feds meeting next week should be telling. I would expect more drops after that. I wouldn't expect a rate drop.
 

Pribilof

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I honestly feel like part of it is these huge hedge funds that hate Trump are dumping positions purposely to cause a lot of volatility and ruining the entire market

LOL no. Take it from a professional institutional investor: that's not how any of this works. As of Wednesday the equity markets have lost over $4 Trillion of value. Hedge funds trading out of spite can't cause this type of movement.

Trade wars aren't a net positive for ANY participant. At some point poor consumer confidence, poor business confidence, and fear of a recession can all actually CAUSE a recession. Think about it. If consumers are fearful they stop spending money (consumer spending is 70% of GDP). If businesses are fearful that consumers will pull back then they slow or stop investments (that's another 15% of GDP).

Tariffs on steel in 2018 (Trump) caused an increase of about 1,000 jobs in steel production (yay) AND a loss of about 75,000 jobs in manufacturing (oh no!) because increased steel costs caused these downstream US manufacturers to be at a distinct cost disadvantage to foreign manufacturers. (source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2019086pap.pdf)

Without getting into the politics of illegal immigration let's also consider that illegal immigrants are >4.8% of the workforce in the USA. The current unemployment rate is 4.1%. What happens when we deport 4.8% of the workforce?
 

BlckBox04

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LOL no. Take it from a professional institutional investor: that's not how any of this works. As of Wednesday the equity markets have lost over $4 Trillion of value. Hedge funds trading out of spite can't cause this type of movement.

Trade wars aren't a net positive for ANY participant. At some point poor consumer confidence, poor business confidence, and fear of a recession can all actually CAUSE a recession. Think about it. If consumers are fearful they stop spending money (consumer spending is 70% of GDP). If businesses are fearful that consumers will pull back then they slow or stop investments (that's another 15% of GDP).

Tariffs on steel in 2018 (Trump) caused an increase of about 1,000 jobs in steel production (yay) AND a loss of about 75,000 jobs in manufacturing (oh no!) because increased steel costs caused these downstream US manufacturers to be at a distinct cost disadvantage to foreign manufacturers. (source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2019086pap.pdf)

Without getting into the politics of illegal immigration let's also consider that illegal immigrants are >4.8% of the workforce in the USA. The current unemployment rate is 4.1%. What happens when we deport 4.8% of the workforce?
got a lot of help from chatgpt ehh?
 

q6543

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The problem is rates are not going lower because they can’t price in how much tariffs are going to add.

A lot of bad consumer reports from travel and retailers.

Not far from a self induced recession… with higher prices. Not great.

Silver lining, T$ is making poor people poor again, broke MFr’s all seem to have money for LV bags … that’s about to stop dead in its tracks.
 

Bullitt1448

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No way this is just from tariffs... politics, recession fears. Trump is shaking everything up and will be for a while. who know how long it will last. Trump himself said dont watch the market... he knows it'll be volatile and he's usually one who gauges his success off market performance...
I agree not 100% from tariffs but they are a large contributor.
 

jvandy50

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I’m trying to be as objective as possible, but I’m scaling into more NVDL and TSLL(CSPs and then more CCs). 4hr looks good and 1D is starting to turn…treading lightly because weekly still has room to drop.

it certainly does not “feel“ like it’s ready to turn around yet, I’m just going by the charts and indicators of the tickers I follow closest.
 

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