SVTP stock pick thread.

VegasMichael

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I'm looking smart right now, LOL.
Looks like the pop in price was related to Biden's pardon of people incarcerated for minor marijuana offenses leading investors to believe he will further decriminalize weed and thus there will be increased demand for SMG products.
 

Weather Man

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Looks like the pop in price was related to Biden's pardon of people incarcerated for minor marijuana offenses leading investors to believe he will further decriminalize weed and thus there will be increased demand for SMG products.

Cally is taxing the **** out of legal weed, thereby giving the illegal weed producers a cost advantage,
 

Fat Boss

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Cally is taxing the **** out of legal weed, thereby giving the illegal weed producers a cost advantage,

That's true. Luckily a lot of us know growers and are able to get primo stuff at cut-rate prices. I pay 1/3 less today than I did 35 years ago, not even taking inflation into account.

I was talking to a well driller a couple years ago and he said 90% of his business was new wells for growers.
 

q6543

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The absolute annihilation across the board today is truly impressive!

According to all Quant data I've seen we are in the "final bottoming process"

100% of examples were positive by 20% or greater 1 year out and on average 100% plus 5 years out.

Unless....this time IS different??
 

VegasMichael

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The absolute annihilation across the board today is truly impressive!

According to all Quant data I've seen we are in the "final bottoming process"

100% of examples were positive by 20% or greater 1 year out and on average 100% plus 5 years out.

Unless....this time IS different??
40 minutes to go and the DOW is down 700.
 

q6543

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Margin calls hit Monday.

This is forced liquidations at this point.
I don't see how the FED hikes rates in the face of this action.
 

q6543

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Headlines like this are buy signals, for me at least.
 

MG0h3

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The absolute annihilation across the board today is truly impressive!

According to all Quant data I've seen we are in the "final bottoming process"

100% of examples were positive by 20% or greater 1 year out and on average 100% plus 5 years out.

Unless....this time IS different??

You literally said that none of your “data” is lining up with what is happening about 6 weeks ago. Said this is a one off or something if I recall.

And your estimation is to vague to have any value.

What is the bottom?

Sent from my iPhone using the svtperformance.com mobile app
 

q6543

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No one knows what the final low tick is gonna be, some A.I. algo will find it.
(I'll agree 100% it sure looks like we are in crash mode).

I'm far more concerned with historical data and probable outcomes.
That say 100% of the time, we should or always have been, higher a year from today.

And significantly higher 5 years.

Long SPY, TLT, FXI, VT, QQQ, BITCOIN & ETHEREUM.
 

RUNVS?

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With two consecutive down quarters, there’s little doubt that we’re in a recession. The question is how long it will last. History tells us they typically last ~8 months, so hopefully the market will be on the upswing soon.
 

Weather Man

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Jan P Perlwitz

09 Oct. 2022, 1:14 PM
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Assuming the inflation adjusted average earnings of the last 10 years as given, S&P 500 would have to go down by another 38% from here to only reach the historical average of Shiller's CAPE, or another 42% to reach the historical median of the CAPE, or more than 60% to reach a single-digit CAPE. Pre-1990 bear markets found their bottoms when CAPE was at 10 or lower.

image_472206597.jpg
 
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VegasMichael

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^I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the DOW drop 5,000-6000 points from here. As an aside, a huge wealth transfer is beginning to take place as well. Elderly Boomers are passing on and leaving their equities to younger generations, many of whom have soured on stocks since they haven't experienced bear markets and who have been priced out of the real estate market. Many of them will be converting some/all of those equities into bonds, cash or cash equivalents and dipping their feet into the housing market--some of whom will be able to make large down payments or pay cash for the property as a result of converting those said equities into cash and avoiding what they consider high interest rates.

Fasten your seat belts, y'all.
 

q6543

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There has to be contagion spreading by now.


Pensions aren't a sustainable idea anyways though... blow the whole system out now and restructre.
 

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