SVB is Now In the Hands of the FDIC

MG0h3

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Is his quote fair or foul? @Klaus


J.P. Morgan keeps First Republic as top pick among small-, mid-cap banks

FRC -24.72%Mar. 17, 2023 1:26 PM ET5 Comments

J.P. Morgan analyst Steven Alexopoulos not only maintained his Overweight rating on First Republic Bank (NYSE:FRC) after a group of the U.S.'s largest banks agreed to place $30B of uninsured deposits at the struggling lender but keeps FRC his top pick among small- and mid-cap banks.
"With the shares trading well below TBV (and well below 'burn-down' TBV for unrealized HTM losses), we see this as a higher risk but potentially very high reward name," Alexopoulos wrote in a note to clients.

Lol. Pretty simple observation he’s making.

I’d look at what these analysts say and work backwards…

Did they lose their ass and are recommending people to buy it?

Just bought it and want people to pour into it?



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Klaus

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Is his quote fair or foul? @Klaus


J.P. Morgan keeps First Republic as top pick among small-, mid-cap banks

FRC -24.72%Mar. 17, 2023 1:26 PM ET5 Comments

J.P. Morgan analyst Steven Alexopoulos not only maintained his Overweight rating on First Republic Bank (NYSE:FRC) after a group of the U.S.'s largest banks agreed to place $30B of uninsured deposits at the struggling lender but keeps FRC his top pick among small- and mid-cap banks.
"With the shares trading well below TBV (and well below 'burn-down' TBV for unrealized HTM losses), we see this as a higher risk but potentially very high reward name," Alexopoulos wrote in a note to clients.

There is not much to go on here. He does not provide any basis for his buy recommendation.

Banks did deposit 30b yesterday. Shares are down 25% last time I checked.

I have a bet on that they will not survive the weekend. I expect a forced sale will be the outcome.
 

tistan

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So last night a friends wife, who is liberal and head of HR for a bank, started going on about how SVB is Trumps fault. I asked her how it is Trumps fault when Barney Frank, who wrote a lot of banking laws is sitting on the board. She said Trump repealed regulations. I said If the regulations were good for banks, then who forced Barney Frank and SVB to not follow them anyway. They could have kept the regulation without the government. Then she knew she was trapped, and she said both Frank and Trump should both be in jail. I guess a half concession is as good as it gets out of liberals.
 

Rb0891

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So last night a friends wife, who is liberal and head of HR for a bank, started going on about how SVB is Trumps fault. I asked her how it is Trumps fault when Barney Frank, who wrote a lot of banking laws is sitting on the board. She said Trump repealed regulations. I said If the regulations were good for banks, then who forced Barney Frank and SVB to not follow them anyway. They could have kept the regulation without the government. Then she knew she was trapped, and she said both Frank and Trump should both be in jail. I guess a half concession is as good as it gets out of liberals.
HR… lmfao
 

MG0h3

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Klaus called it



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GOV really trying to stay out of this while banks merge to become bigger banks.

GOV complains banks are too big in 3….2….

I was laughing at Kevin O’Leary on CNBC yesterday. He was on there saying who cares about regional banks? Who goes to a bank anymore?

I went with my stepmom to the bank the other day. She’s got a check in her hand and passes it to me as I’m driving and we’re in the drive thru.

It’s a check from them to them.

I’m like WTF is?

Oh we need to move money from the business account to the personal account.

JFC ‍♂️


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Lambeau

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Couple cliffs to SVB in the video linked below that starts ~36:40...

- Greg Becker, CEO of SVB, successfully lobbied in 2015 to get reduced standards of scrutiny.
- At that Palo Alto bank, 97% of those depositors had more than $250k in their accounts.
- So only 3% of depositors had less than $250k in the bank.
- ^Think about that one.
- That's why Yellin waived the $250k max coverage.

Source - Victor David Hanson's podcast:

 
Last edited:

VegasMichael

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I was wondering when Uncle Warren would get involved....
 

Klaus

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head of HR

If she knew anything about banking she would not be in HR. Nor does she possess a basic understanding of how the govt works.

Next time ask her what specific laws Trump changed.

Then ask her how specifically this led to the downfall of SVB.

Then ask her how he changed them given the executive branch enforces laws rather than writes laws.
 

Klaus

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GOV really trying to stay out of this while banks merge to become bigger banks.

GOV complains banks are too big in 3….2….

I was laughing at Kevin O’Leary on CNBC yesterday. He was on there saying who cares about regional banks? Who goes to a bank anymore?

I went with my stepmom to the bank the other day. She’s got a check in her hand and passes it to me as I’m driving and we’re in the drive thru.

It’s a check from them to them.

I’m like WTF is?

Oh we need to move money from the business account to the personal account.

JFC ‍♂️


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I have had to take control of my aunts financial life in the last few months.

She lives off of social security and a modest pension. Some shitbag kept ripping her off which required me to go to the bank multiple times to deal with it.

She banks at Huntington which is a joke regional bank.

I spent several hours at a branch in the middle of the day and observed:

There is an entire population that goes into the bank for cash. Mostly immigrants and old people. Working there would be depressing.

The bank employees are very low quality. They could just as well be working at Arby's.

The systems and procedures are a joke.

Example: Someone defrauded my aunt and swept her account. I challenged the charge and tried to shut the account down. They credited the account but refused to close it while the charge was outstanding. So the fraudsters came in and swept the credited amount. Absolutely. Retarded.

The flip is that these deposits are probably very sticky. Manual laborers that transact in cash are probably not paying attention to what is going on at SVB.
 

Klaus

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One more thing about this how this story is being covered.

It is reported as a "bank run." The insinuation is that there is an unjustified panic and the panic itself is causing the failure itself. Never discussed is that an insolvent bank is justifiable source of concern.

A variation of this is that its (((tHe VcS))) fault. As if shadowy figures on twitter can send out a tweet and, like a cruise missile, it will destroy its target. Dumber versions of this imply a conspiracy in which (((tHe VcS))) secretly profit from the demise of the bank that serves them. Any explanation as to how this could be makes no possible sense see @JAJ

There is of course the explanation that it was the regulators fault. The regulator is god in this instance and if only the proper regulations had been in place this never would have happened. A variation of this is that it was Herr Trumps fault because he somehow blocked the proper regulations and all hell broke lose.

Other nonsensical sources of blame from the other side of the aisle include "Go woke go broke."

All of these are dumb and are an attempt to either 1) isolate the problem as merely an SVB problem or 2) hackish attempts to put SVB into a preexisting ideological framework. Unsurprisingly for these groups every problem has the same root cause be it not enough regulation or too woke.

the answer is far more simple than any of this:

SVB and/or every other bank has a huge hole in their balance sheet.

and

there is good reason to be concerned.

and

this is systemic

and

it is not going away anytime soon

and

there are going to be large and long lasting effects on credit availability

which

means there will be large and long lasting impacts on the economy

end of rant
 
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mariusvt

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One more thing about this how this story is being covered.

It is reported as a "bank run." The insinuation is that there is an unjustified panic and the panic itself is causing the failure itself. Never discussed is that an insolvent bank is justifiable source of concern.

A variation of this is that its (((tHe VcS))) fault. As if shadowy figures on twitter can send out a tweet and, like a cruise missile, it will destroy its target. Dumber versions of this imply a conspiracy in which (((tHe VcS))) secretly profit form the demise of the bank that serves them. Any explanation as to how this could be makes no possible sense see @JAJ

There is of course the explanation that it was the regulators fault. The regulator is god in this instance and if only the proper regulations had been in place this never would have happened. A variation of this is that it was Herr Trumps fault because he somehow blocked the proper regulations and all hell broke lose.

Other nonsensical sources of blame from the other side of the aisle include "Go woke go broke."

All of these are dumb and are an attempt to either 1) isolate the problem as merely an SVB problem or 2) hackish attempts to put SVB into a preexisting ideological framework. Unsurprisingly for these groups every problem has the same root cause be it not enough regulation or too woke.

the answer is far more simple than any of this:

SVB and/or every other bank has a huge hole in their balance sheet.

and

there is good reason to be concerned.

and

this is systemic

and

it is not going away anytime soon

and

there are going to be large and long lasting effects on credit availability

which

means there will be large and long lasting impacts on the economy

end of rant
It's 2023, things like logic, facts, evidence, the truth.... Are lost on so many people. Gotta shove it into some other box that fits a narrow minded agenda.
 

Klaus

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I know there was something that happened between 2023 and 2018 that caused deposits to explode but I just cant put my finger on it
Frgbch0WwAE3nff


Here is the fed balance sheet
Frg1RftWwAQ_qUY
 

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