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Is a recession on the horizon or is this just a blip

Discussion in 'Politics Forum' started by Blk04L, Aug 14, 2019.

  1. Weather Man

    Weather Man Persistance Is A Bitch Premium Member Established Member

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    Hardly a font of impartiality. Up to now everything impartial I could find is that the Chinese are subsidizing companies directly and manipulating their own currency to offset tariffs. That is not to say that American companies turned down a good excuse to raise prices, because they certainly did.

    Goldman moves to take majority control of China joint venture
     
  2. tones_RS3

    tones_RS3 I like members members. Premium Member Established Member

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    It's a shame that most of cucks going to college these days are in favor of said dance theory degrees/liberal arts.
    How's that liberal arts job treating ya, ya ****s?!?!?
     
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  3. Klaus

    Klaus Premium Member Premium Member Established Member

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    I am not sure WTF GS buying out their china subsidiary has to do with anything. I do not think you do, either.

    The data is the data, I am not sure what your perceived view of CNBC or GS impartiality has to do with anything. I would welcome any source that you have that offers data that this retarded trade war is not kicking the shit out of American consumers. I live and breath this data on a daily basis so I would love to see what you've got. Actual data, not your gut feeling or what you wish were true because Hail Trump.

    To date, the cost of tariffs have far exceeded the benefit from Paul Ryan's tax cut and is very likely to be the cause of the next recession.
     
  4. Weather Man

    Weather Man Persistance Is A Bitch Premium Member Established Member

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    The cause of the next recession will be the incessant drumbeat of recession put out bt the MSM to help sleepy joe. They don't even pretend that is NOT their agenda Klaus.

    Nothing the USA had done before had made a single dent in China's determination to do many many bad things to Americans and American companies. I would suggest that trying to fix it during a recession would be bad. The Chinese count on Americans short term view that is no longer than the last jobs report.

    We already know what will happen if Biden wins, China owns him and his son lock stock and barrel.

    What is remarkable is the lack of companies posting up what it is costing them exactly. Maybe that is because they do not want to give a competitor an advantage.

    I reviewed a lot of charts on this site trying to find data one way or the other, not finding a lot to support significant price rises that would impact a large segment of the USA.

    United States Import Prices | 2019 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

    It would be interesting to see the deals importers are making with Chinese companies in this tariff environment. If an importer has another SE Asia source, I would imagine that would be a mighty unpleasant conversation from the Chinese prospective, to which I say, ****ing "A" tweety bird!
     
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  5. Weather Man

    Weather Man Persistance Is A Bitch Premium Member Established Member

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    I should clarify that I do believe some products must be seeing more price increases than others because China may be the ONLY source for a particular product and more ability to resist price reduction demands by the importer.

    It would be interesting to see/track Harbor Freight products and what happens to their pricing. Some stuff they could get elsewhere but others maybe not. We could call it the Harbor Freight index Klaus!
     
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  6. HillbillyHotRod

    HillbillyHotRod Hooligan rabble rouser Established Member

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    Harbor Freight has something not from china???
     
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  7. Klaus

    Klaus Premium Member Premium Member Established Member

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    MSM/ad hominem arguments are boring. As if economic data is driven by sources that you do not agree with. The opinion writers over at WSJ have taken a break from gargling Herr Trump's balls to write about how stupid and destructive his trade war is. These are coming out on a daily basis from that group, which is the most pro-trump legitimate news outfit in the land.

    Opinion | Trump Is Losing the Trade War With China

    Opinion | Cut the Trump Uncertainty Tax

    Opinion | The Navarro Recession, II

    Granted these are opinion pieces so what ev, but anyone that has a clue about trade policy abhors tariffs regardless of political persuasion. Because they are taxes, pure and simple. You can run from this fact but you cannot hide from it.

    I applaud your effort to get actual data rather than shoot from the hip. But what you linked to is all imports. We are just talking about China. Here is how that looks. A bit different, no?
    https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.n...201908121221V20190821&d1=20140101&d2=20191231

    Further, tariffs increase the cost of domestic goods, as well, since imported goods that are affected by tariffs are inputs to things manufactured in the US. Further, domestic producers have to increase their prices, as well. Or do so to take advantage of US consumers. Do some research on the cost of US washers and dryers if you are actually interested. Hint: Washers were affected by tariffs but dryers were not and yet prices on both went up significantly.
     
  8. Weather Man

    Weather Man Persistance Is A Bitch Premium Member Established Member

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    It is interesting to see them move upscale with the power tools line. Is that because they are tapping new suppliers or are the existing suppliers becoming more sophisticated? Getting better at incorporating reverse engineered competitor features?
     
  9. Klaus

    Klaus Premium Member Premium Member Established Member

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    Ditto here. I am not familiar with HF but they would be a good proxy. They are not public so there is not any info on how this has affected their earnings. If you google harbor freight + cost increase + china there are a few things that come up but no data.

    Edit Stanley Black and Decker is public and is getting its ass kicked
    "Stanley Black & Decker Inc. warned Thursday the escalating trade dispute between the U.S. and China is expected to raise tariffs to a cumulative annualized impact on the company of $250 million to $275 million from an initial $150 million."
    Stanley Black & Decker sees rising impact of Trump’s tariff battle with China
     
  10. mysticsvt

    mysticsvt southernmustangandford Premium Member Established Member

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    The Dems would love nothing more than for America to CRASH if it meant taking Trump down with it. Far as they are concerned they would just "Build a better America". A percentage of this talk may very be backed by current events but some of it simply propaganda to destroy a President.
     
  11. Weather Man

    Weather Man Persistance Is A Bitch Premium Member Established Member

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    I never felt ANY of the MSM was in favor of tariffs. China should show increase, but since it is such a big importer, you would expect it to reflect in the overall numbers. U.S. imports from China account for 21.2% of overall U.S. imports in 2018. It really isn't, why? Importers working better deals?, importers sourcing elsewhere?

    The bottom line is that China is not a capitalistic country where free market forces are given free reign. It is communist with an incredible vertical stovepipe integration of the political/military and economy. They want to be number one is ALL aspects of the world and crushing the USA economy is a KEY component of that strategy. So, if prices have to rise on some things to reign them back in AGAINST China's will, so be it. It should have been done LONG ago when it would have been a hell of a lot easier. Like so many of the problems Trump is trying to address, they are festering ****ing Gordian knots of almost impossibility to fix.
     
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  12. Klaus

    Klaus Premium Member Premium Member Established Member

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    Again, who the F cares if the MSM is in favor or not. The data is the data. Ask a US farmer if China is a big importer of US goods or not. They are getting their teeth kicked in by this nonsense. It is as bad as it has ever been to be a farmer in the US and it is entirely self inflicted. It is actually the case whether or not it is reported by a source that you approve of or not.

    Speaking of, you do not think the US subsidizes segments of its economy? You run E85? You can thank govt subsidies, it would not exist if it were not the case. You know how much farmers pay in property taxes? Zero. Are you familiar with crop insurance? Entirely subsidized by you, the tax payer. You familiar with how mineral royalties work? Well, you do not have to pay them if you drill federal land. Straight up subsidy. You familiar with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? Straight up price support that would make the Soviets blush. I could go on and on and on.
     
  13. tones_RS3

    tones_RS3 I like members members. Premium Member Established Member

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    I agree that's some of it.
    The media is crap too. They try to instill fear and hatred into everyone. (When I say the media, I mean the schmucks at the very top controlling the "news".) They should be ashamed and be treated as traitors to the Country and it's people. They're ****ing with people's livelihood. It's disgusting!
     
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  14. Weather Man

    Weather Man Persistance Is A Bitch Premium Member Established Member

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    The alternative to fighting China being what? Trade with China on their terms? If they boycott a segment surrender? The data is in fact the data, we know exactly how badly they were ****ing us over.
     
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  15. Klaus

    Klaus Premium Member Premium Member Established Member

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    Yeah, what villains they are that they made us buy all the stuff that they sold us. It is crazy to me that all of a sudden free trade is a bad thing. Never thought I would see it.
     
  16. nickf2005

    nickf2005 Well-Known Member Established Member

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    I disagree... tariffs are not taxes... they just result in a larger, total purchase price by the consumer but not mandated by the government.

    That is my poor, humorous way of agreeing with you, as much as I hate to.

    Tariffs don't have to result in cost increases finding their way to the consumer's purchase price, but they're going to 95% of the time. Companies have been operating at their margins for years and (if they're worth a darn) increasing year over year, basing business decisions (labor, product launches, capital purchasing to name a few) based on their profit, not revenues. You think most companies are going to just eat that 3, 6, 10, or 15% chunk out of their product's contribution margin. No sirs.

    The theory makes sense. Rise prices from China, drive jobs back to USA. Thing is, in some cases, even with the tariff, it's still cheaper to buy from them. They are specializing in some process and materials that Americans and the EPA want no part of. In top of that, the USA is at an all time low unemployment rate... who in the world will work these returning jobs? Sure, it's easy to say there's still plenty of homeless people, but I'm going to guess there's a reason for that for many (not all) and I don't it's because they are chomping at the bot for a job. That may sound heartless, but that's only my opinion.

    What it is doing is making many Taiwanese companies that manufacture in China, bring production into Taiwan, which isn't affected by the tariff. It will also drive more development into other areas not yet saturated by manufacturing. The percentage of returned jobs will be minimal.

    Sorry guys, I see T Money in the wrong this time. I hope he comes around because I think he can do good/better. He is his own worst enemy and he will lose himself a reelection, not be beat.

    Sent from my SM-G975U using the svtperformance.com mobile app
     
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  17. Weather Man

    Weather Man Persistance Is A Bitch Premium Member Established Member

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    There is nothing free about China's government led effort to destroy our economy. The only thing worse is that our elected leaders failed America utterly in protecting us from it.
     
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  18. nickf2005

    nickf2005 Well-Known Member Established Member

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    Let's not turn a blind eye to the fact that they have exploited many of their own to do so as well. What's crazy... so many of their citizens idolize Americans and want to be like us Westerners. Their government is sacrificing some to please many...

    Sent from my SM-G975U using the svtperformance.com mobile app
     
  19. Klaus

    Klaus Premium Member Premium Member Established Member

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    Stop buying Chinese shit then. Problem solved :)
     
  20. Weather Man

    Weather Man Persistance Is A Bitch Premium Member Established Member

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    https _blogs-images.forbes.com_chuckdevore_files_2019_02_Manufacturing-jobs2-1200x675.jpg.png
     
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