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Is a recession on the horizon or is this just a blip

Discussion in 'Politics Forum' started by Blk04L, Aug 14, 2019.

  1. Blk04L

    Blk04L . . . Premium Member Established Member

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    The Cboe Volatility Index, aka Wall Street’s fear gauge, jumped to a high of 22 on Wednesday.

    The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note on Wednesday broke below the 2-year rate, an odd bond market phenomenon that has been a reliable indicator of economic recessions. Investors, worried about the state of the economy, rushed to long-term safe haven assets, pushing the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond to a new record low on Wednesday.

    Bank stocks led the declines as it gets tougher for the group to make a profit lending money in such an environment. Bank of America and Citigroup fell 4.3% and 5.1% respectively, while J.P. Morgan also dropped 3.6%. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF is down 2.65%.

    The last time this key part of the yield curve inverted was in December 2005, two years before the recession hit.

    “Historically speaking the inversion of that benchmark yield curve measure means that we now must expect a recession anywhere from six-to-18 months from today
    which will drastically, and negatively, shift our medium-to-longer term outlook on the broader markets,”

    Dow plunges 700 points after bond market flashes a recession warning, Citigroup tanks 5%


    I know some articles have stated the China tariff/trade issue hasn't been helping, so maybe once that is resolved everything will settle back down?

    Or is this simply the start of another recession?

    The global parts make me a smidged concerned. Especially the German GPD print. If the EU goes into a recession, that can drag more into one too
     
    earico and bigja01cobra like this.
  2. Weather Man

    Weather Man Persistance Is A Bitch Premium Member Established Member

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    If Trump wins, the market wins. If Trump loses, recession. If the D's run the table, Great Recession 2.
     
  3. DSG2003Mach1

    DSG2003Mach1 Well-Known Member Premium Member Established Member

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    We've been seeing a slowdown in construction over the last couple of months
     
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  4. earico

    earico It's 4:20 somewhere... Premium Member Established Member

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    Time to stock pile cash and get ready for the buy after the drop.
     
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  5. bigja01cobra

    bigja01cobra Active Member Established Member

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    We are seeing sales flat and up in some cases but finance is projecting flat to 10% up for 2020. The big dogs strategies on the other hand suggest they are hedging against a recession and have spoken openly about it recently.

    This is the consumer goods market so who knows. Finance/Sales are always optimistic in this industry. And I would wager the top dogs are more conservative better safe than sorry.

    The world market is tumultuous at best, Hong Kong protests, Argentina Stock Market FLash Crash. I agree with earico stock the cash and ready to buy the drop.
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2019
  6. black92

    black92 Hot rod Lincoln Established Member

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    What if Trump wins and there's a recession?
     
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  7. Blk04L

    Blk04L . . . Premium Member Established Member

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    Locally we've seen it too.

    However, there's a lot of interest up in Palm Coast/Palm Bay.

    An old project that died due to the recession 12 years ago just came back to life. Hopefully it doesn't die again.
     
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  8. DSG2003Mach1

    DSG2003Mach1 Well-Known Member Premium Member Established Member

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    We've been seeing a slowdown in construction over the last couple of months
    I will say Im sure some of the slow down we're seeing is all this rain every single freaking day. We'll be slow one week then balls to the wall the next if stays mostly dry.
     
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  9. Blk04L

    Blk04L . . . Premium Member Established Member

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    Good ole summer time. Guaranteed rainfall every afternoon in Florida. Then the mutant mosquitoes come out of hiding.
     
  10. oooooh snap

    oooooh snap Stable Genius Established Member

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    If that’s your strategy, buy Gold.
     
  11. VRYALT3R3D

    VRYALT3R3D Well-Known Member Established Member

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    I don't think the US really recovered from the last recession. The artificial "recovery" was due to the Fed Reserve buying billions in MBS.
     
  12. IronSnake

    IronSnake Permanently apathetic Established Member

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    I had a pretty solid thought the other day.

    Tarriffs are kind of an ace in the hole. You push companies to swallow or sell at 25% increase in cost for a while and while it might slow things down and cause prices to go up, those companies will boom when the tariffs come off.

    Cost goes up 25%. Sell Price rises 25%. Costs reduce 25%. Sell price stays the same. Hello margin boom.
     
  13. CV355

    CV355 SVTP Lightning Rod Established Member

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  14. q6543

    q6543 Active Member Established Member

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    Dollar milkshake theory has been passing the test so far.
     
  15. thomas91169

    thomas91169 # of bans = 5203 Established Member

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    Still cranking hard here. But I've been saying another recession is right around the corner as it feels like to me how '05-'06 felt like and people say I'm nuts.
     
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  16. Great Asp

    Great Asp Well-Known Member Premium Member Established Member

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    Based on what I see, no recession "in sight". Like 1,000 is the new 500hp, the DOW is at a point where 600 points is not what it used to be.

    It did this same thing a week or so ago, and by close on Friday it was about back to where it was.

    China (tariffs) is in bad condition. Some of what you may be seeing is due to the Hong Kong issues also.

    As posted above, real market changes will be based on the 2020 election (IMO).

    E
     
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  17. PhoenixM3

    PhoenixM3 Hello Kitty Slayer Established Member

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    Then I'm sure you'll blame him.....
     
  18. Weather Man

    Weather Man Persistance Is A Bitch Premium Member Established Member

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    I would expect mild, Trump is doing everything he can to let business work, unlike Obama who had his foot stomped on the brake pedal. Baby Boomers still retiring in incredible numbers.
     
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  19. Revvv

    Revvv Infinity Poster Established Member

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    Regardless of what the stock market is doing, I am in the market for a house. That is life.

    Sent from my [mind] using the svtperformance.com mobile app
     
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  20. 03cobra#694

    03cobra#694 Want to play a game? Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Not here, slammed and rocking. We're in that price valley between the Naples/Ft. Myers and Sarasota/Bradenton areas.
    Afternoon storms are fine, but it's been raining in the mornings and on and off all day for the last two weeks. That part has been killing us building wise.
     
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