Current New Vehicle Market

[PIPO]

Things are crazy down here in FL. My local dealer bought 22 vehicles from the dealer that used to be my local to me in Kansas. All of them over MSRP.
I’ve sold 15 TRXs so far; cheapest one for $15k over. I bought a 21 Camry and 3 months later I sold it to carmax for $6k over what I paid...including sales tax. I honestly don’t see things cooling down for a long time.
I’m still trying to buy a house down here since I retired 14 months ago. Nothing sells for asking price down here.

 

[Bullitt1448]

I'll gladly settle for another 2021

Sent from my Potato

One would almost think you owned a dealership Nick…..

 

[13COBRA]

One would almost think you owned a dealership Nick…..

Not on paper...haha

 

[BrunotheBoxer]

I was right that Trump will never be your President again

You were??
I’m very proud of ya Mush.

 

[03cobra#694]

I was right that Trump will never be your President again

You are really as stupid as I thought. Go away please. Idiot.

 

[Tractorman]

The lack of cars produced in a year seems to affect the new and used markets for years to come. A couple of these low 12-14 million unit years will have the used market staying tight. Seemed the same way after 08/09.

 

[sonicx]

If I know one thing it’s that relyin on certain auctions services for forecasting should be taken with a grain of salt. I’d feel better getting information from the manufacturer rep, auto banks, & unbiased reports vs a regional auctions or places where they make their own numbers / can manipulates conditional grades. Makes you wondering what else is or isn’t told.

Dealers have had lower volume but higher margins over the last 1.5yrs and are enjoying breaking targets, going forth if manufacturers were smart, they’d do a lot more ordering vs dumping new cars on lot… similar to how it was back in the 90s. Dealer would also have the benefit of keeping less on the floor plan.

Pricing, due to inflation and market adjustment forecasting isn’t going to unwind the clock of what’s car manufacturing is going to put forth. I’m not even going to add in unionization and it’s sunken costs.

Car rental companies need to get supplied again, many rooftop dealers aren’t selling to rentals even for 5K+ over as they lose holdback, back end, sales rep comm, service, potential trade in, and the chance to retail a future customer. I can’t see that occurring til sometime early 2023.

The other hiccup is the logistics nightmare occurring for transportation some are good others are bad, varies by company and region (to/from). Build all you want, can’t move it if there’s driver shortages.

Once the markets even thought, incentives will be back passed down by the manufacturer which will manipulate your up front list price.

 

[Double"O"]

We are already seeing 96 month terms and a few 120 month terms for cars. 10 years to finance a deprecating unit is just crazy, but there are lots of stupid people out there. The only thing I have financed in the last couple of decades was my house till the last one sold, 10 year term would likely double the price of a car.

I have a ten year note on my bassboat...that was the lowest i could get. I couldnt figure out how people than i knew making 20 and hr afforded a 50k boat but now i know lol

Ive had mine rig for 18 months now and have paid triple payments so im way ahead...and funny thing i could sell it today and makr 5k plus easy...but then i have to buy another one at a stupid price so F that lol

 

[VRYALT3R3D]

No shit, right? "It was in a press release from the guys that make money when you buy their shit, so you KNOW its going to happen." LOL

It is okay to be in denial.

New car prices won't being going down anytime soon.
Consumer tastes are changing from entry level vehicles to higher end SUVs and trucks. The ATP is up significantly. Automakers have boosted its return on sales profits significantly during the pandemic. Cars are about to be far more complex with ADAS, connected, and BEV vehicles coming to the market. The days of lots with huge inventories and large incentives to clear the lot are long over.


BMW and Daimler pledge to keep prices high when chip crisis ends
Two of the world’s biggest carmakers plan to restrict supply and push their luxury models

“We will consciously undersupply demand level,” Harald Wilhelm, Daimler’s chief financial officer told the Financial Times, “and at the same time we [will] shift gears towards the higher, the luxury end.”

BMW and Daimler pledge to keep prices high when chip crisis ends

Two of the world’s biggest carmakers plan to restrict supply and push their luxury models

www.ft.com

Average New-Vehicle Transaction Prices Top $45,000 for First Time, According to Kelley Blue Book

New-vehicle prices hit another all-time high in September 2021, marking the sixth straight record-setting month and surpassing $45,000 for the first time, according to a new report from Kelley...

mediaroom.kbb.com

 

[cobracide]

It is okay to be in denial.

New car prices won't being going down anytime soon.
Consumer tastes are changing from entry level vehicles to higher end SUVs and trucks. The ATP is up significantly. Automakers have boosted its return on sales profits significantly during the pandemic. Cars are about to be far more complex with ADAS, connected, and BEV vehicles coming to the market. The days of lots with huge inventories and large incentives to clear the lot are long over.


BMW and Daimler pledge to keep prices high when chip crisis ends
Two of the world’s biggest carmakers plan to restrict supply and push their luxury models

“We will consciously undersupply demand level,” Harald Wilhelm, Daimler’s chief financial officer told the Financial Times, “and at the same time we [will] shift gears towards the higher, the luxury end.”

BMW and Daimler pledge to keep prices high when chip crisis ends

Two of the world’s biggest carmakers plan to restrict supply and push their luxury models

www.ft.com

Average New-Vehicle Transaction Prices Top $45,000 for First Time, According to Kelley Blue Book

New-vehicle prices hit another all-time high in September 2021, marking the sixth straight record-setting month and surpassing $45,000 for the first time, according to a new report from Kelley...

mediaroom.kbb.com

BMW and Daimler may think they are making Rolex watches with four wheels but I doubt all the other car makers share those beliefs. Luxury cars are just one segment. Pickups, SUVs, sedans et la Civic all far outsell you're german luxury car niche segment example. It will only take a couple years for the manufacurers to rebound, get greedy and flood the market yet again. It has happened countless times before and will happen again. That's how mass production and economies of scale work in the automotive industry. Just in time ordering of cars. LoL Look where that just in time ordering got you now. Shorted on chips. That worked out well. All you dealers and car sellers get on here saying things will never be cheap again. Obvious bias for a reason. Greed. The one defining characteristic of the automotive industry.

Like the never ending car commercial that I watched again tonight.
"Now's the best time to buy." Yeah, right. It always says the same thing. And yes, there is some dumb consumers who will eat it up.

Just like buying stocks, just wait for the price pullback because it will happen eventually. It's not a matter of if - but when.

 

[Weather Man]

It is okay to be in denial.

New car prices won't being going down anytime soon.
Consumer tastes are changing from entry level vehicles to higher end SUVs and trucks. The ATP is up significantly. Automakers have boosted its return on sales profits significantly during the pandemic. Cars are about to be far more complex with ADAS, connected, and BEV vehicles coming to the market. The days of lots with huge inventories and large incentives to clear the lot are long over.


BMW and Daimler pledge to keep prices high when chip crisis ends
Two of the world’s biggest carmakers plan to restrict supply and push their luxury models

“We will consciously undersupply demand level,” Harald Wilhelm, Daimler’s chief financial officer told the Financial Times, “and at the same time we [will] shift gears towards the higher, the luxury end.”

BMW and Daimler pledge to keep prices high when chip crisis ends

Two of the world’s biggest carmakers plan to restrict supply and push their luxury models

www.ft.com

Average New-Vehicle Transaction Prices Top $45,000 for First Time, According to Kelley Blue Book

New-vehicle prices hit another all-time high in September 2021, marking the sixth straight record-setting month and surpassing $45,000 for the first time, according to a new report from Kelley...

mediaroom.kbb.com

The low end in Europe is being flooded by Chinese EV's.

I do not see diesel 3/4 and 1 ton trucks getting cheaper for a long time. But, they have held their value ever since the Great Recession, so no surprise I guess.

 

[Klaus]

New car prices won't being going down anytime soon.

Maybe, maybe not. Cars are financed assets. Pricing is determined by the cost of capital required to finance them. It will not take much of a move in rates or unemployment to decimate demand.

Unemployment is going down, rates are going up.

Consumer tastes are changing from entry level vehicles to higher end SUVs and trucks.

Why is this relevant?

return on sales profits

Is "return on sales profit" some kind of Canadian metric?

“We will consciously undersupply demand level,”

Well, if s carmaker said it you KNOW its true.

In other news, the Cookie Monster says "Cookies are good."

 

[BrunotheBoxer]

It is okay to be in denial.

New car prices won't being going down anytime soon.
Consumer tastes are changing from entry level vehicles to higher end SUVs and trucks. The ATP is up significantly. Automakers have boosted its return on sales profits significantly during the pandemic. Cars are about to be far more complex with ADAS, connected, and BEV vehicles coming to the market. The days of lots with huge inventories and large incentives to clear the lot are long over.


BMW and Daimler pledge to keep prices high when chip crisis ends
Two of the world’s biggest carmakers plan to restrict supply and push their luxury models

“We will consciously undersupply demand level,” Harald Wilhelm, Daimler’s chief financial officer told the Financial Times, “and at the same time we [will] shift gears towards the higher, the luxury end.”

BMW and Daimler pledge to keep prices high when chip crisis ends

Two of the world’s biggest carmakers plan to restrict supply and push their luxury models

www.ft.com

Average New-Vehicle Transaction Prices Top $45,000 for First Time, According to Kelley Blue Book

New-vehicle prices hit another all-time high in September 2021, marking the sixth straight record-setting month and surpassing $45,000 for the first time, according to a new report from Kelley...

mediaroom.kbb.com

 

[Weather Man]

Maybe, maybe not. Cars are financed assets. Pricing is determined by the cost of capital required to finance them. It will not take much of a move in rates or unemployment to decimate demand.

Unemployment is going down, rates are going up.



Why is this relevant?



Is "return on sales profit" some kind of Canadian metric?



Well, if s carmaker said it you KNOW its true.

In other news, the Cookie Monster says "Cookies are good."

Unemployment, I agree, no money is no money.

Interest rates, maybe not.

$45,000 $0 down + TTL = $49,025 assumes decent credit.

84 MO @ 4% = $670
5% = $692
6% = $716
7% = $769
8% = $764
9% = $788
10% = $813

 

[Klaus]

Unemployment, I agree, no money is no money.

Interest rates, maybe not.

$45,000 $0 down + TTL = $49,025 assumes decent credit.

84 MO @ 4% = $670
5% = $692
6% = $716
7% = $769
8% = $764
9% = $788
10% = $813

Interest rates matter because it affects credit availability. Less credit availability means fewer buyers.

That is the whole point of the fed raising rates. To slow economic activity by reducing money supply.

PS it is super weird to read people quoting manufacturer press releases that "supply will intentionally be kept tight" as if car companies can control demand. LOL it as is if people do not have even a basic understanding of how markets work.

The fed yesterday signaled that they will raise rates 3x in 2022. The writing is on the wall. Rates are going up. It is not going to matter how much consumers want high end trucks. Median salary in the US is what, $65k? LMFAAAAAAO if you think it is sustainable for large swaths of the population paying >2x their annual after tax wages for any period of time. For a car. This shit reminds me exactly of the mid 2000s housing bubble. It will end, it is just a matter of when.

 

[Weather Man]

Interest rates matter because it affects credit availability. Less credit availability means fewer buyers.

That is the whole point of the fed raising rates. To slow economic activity by reducing money supply.

I agree with that, but I do think other areas of the economy will be impacted more than auto's will. The auto industry has dealt with crappy credit buying cars for a long time.

EDIT: Part of why I think it will be less affected is that supply has been constrained for 2 years now. The pent-up demand is going to resist destruction short of a recession.

 

[utlong31]

Went to the Ford Dealership yesterday. They had I think 6 new Expeditions and a couple of the black widow conversions trucks. I think that’s what they are and a echo boost mustang and that’s it. This dealer used to have around a 1000 new vehicles on the lot at all times. Crazy that’s what it is.


Sent from my iPhone using svtperformance.com

 

[Klaus]

I agree with that, but I do think other areas of the economy will be impacted more than auto's will. The auto industry has dealt with crappy credit buying cars for a long time.

Autos are one of the most cyclical industries there are. It is a high dollar discretionary purchase that people pay for with money they don't have.

They do really well when things are good and really bad when things are not good.

The finance companies are themselves financed by banks that run for the doors as soon as there is a tickle in their throat. The fed is putting that tickle in their throat as we speak.

 

[Weather Man]

Went to the Ford Dealership yesterday. They had I think 6 new Expeditions and a couple of the black widow conversions trucks. I think that’s what they are and a echo boost mustang and that’s it. This dealer used to have around a 1000 new vehicles on the lot at all times. Crazy that’s what it is.


Sent from my iPhone using svtperformance.com

And here is the conundrum, small dealers are happy the big boys don't have that inventory, but how does Ford tell these guys no when everything is back to normal? I think Ford has a hell of time not giving these big dogs what they want.

 

[Weather Man]

Autos are one of the most cyclical industries there are. It is a high dollar discretionary purchase that people pay for with money they don't have.

They do really well when things are good and really bad when things are not good.

The finance companies are themselves financed by banks that run for the doors as soon as there is a tickle in their throat. The fed is putting that tickle in their throat as we speak.

I guess we'll see if pent up demand lets them weather it or whether it was illusion.