Climate Change & Why I Am Such A Cynical Bastard

Weather Man

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Just one guy breaking it down. It is also funny when non-weather scientists look at what climo guys are doing, they can harder believe the games being played with the data.

 

AustinSN

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Climate models are a joke. I can go in to it if asked.

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I would actually really like that.

I went to a weather seminar for GA pilots a while back, at the end someone asked the dude about global warming. He said something like "I have been monitoring Earth's temperatures for the last 27 years and my data doesn't agree with that they are telling you. I'll leave it at that."
 

blk02edge

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I would actually really like that.

I went to a weather seminar for GA pilots a while back, at the end someone asked the dude about global warming. He said something like "I have been monitoring Earth's temperatures for the last 27 years and my data doesn't agree with that they are telling you. I'll leave it at that."
On the other hand my best friend is a mine engineer who works exploration in the waaay up north. His Boss is a fairly hardcore right wing man, (even has portraits of Trump in his office and private jet) and they'll tell you climate change certainly is a real thing, their business models have been working around it.

The big but to all that is they do not cling to the man made hype and certainly not into the we need to act now fad, or do anything at all due to it being natural.

Im personally stuck in the middle of the argument as I can not personally prove shit and I do not give a flying **** what some left wing OR right wing source says as its almost guaranteed to be biased BS based on what they want to be true.


PS, electric cars are ****ing gay
 

BOOGIE MAN

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You'll have to give me a lot of time to construct a response to this because there's SO MUCH to go in to but I'll leave you with this: How accurate are our weather models for 10 day forecasts? (Terrible) So why in the **** would you trust a projection a year out? Ten years out? Hundred years?

I will get back with a more thorough response later today

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Junior00

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Climate change has always been real, caused by the ever changing output of the sun, axial rotation, eruptions and celestial events...hell even the flow within the earth’s core can wreak havoc. Man is but a tiny variable in the big equation we call Mother Nature. The real problem we have is trying to prevent natural course by all the tree huggers and liberals.

The reason Cali is burning now is because they refuse to listen to reason and do controlled burns, allowing the land to replenish the soil and rid itself of dead and decaying growth for starters. Land rises and falls, we’re on constantly moving plates for crying out loud. Any person with half a brain knows it is hogwash.
 

gimmie11s

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On a Macro level of course the climate is always changing--up and down, humid and dry.... Who really cares?

The Left has convinced everyone that a changing climate is bad. It's hilarious.

Control the language, control the people.

The Democrats are so much smarter than the Right when it comes to winning, it's not even funny.
 

blk02edge

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How about we all just meet in the middle and stop being an asshole to mother nature?
It all comes naturally in due time. To just go ahead and stop cold turkey will cripple economy and just take us back decades. What the crisis actors fail to see is how far we have already come. Still far from perfect but we'll get there. Earth wont die as a result of fossil fuel burning.
 

Coiled03

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How accurate are our weather models for 10 day forecasts? (Terrible) So why in the **** would you trust a projection a year out? Ten years out? Hundred years?

This.

And I don't want to hear a word about climate change until the third world shit holes clean up their act to at least 20th century standards.
 

BOOGIE MAN

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Models rely heavily on input parameters. So, how accurate are our input parameters? CONUS: temp accuracy is pretty legit, but still not 100% accurate (besides accuracy, we can talk about resolution too with less than 200 grid points for the entire CONUS). How accurate are the world wide temp inputs at PRESENT? (They're not accurate). This goes in to how and where the sensors are set up - there are VERY strict regulations for how sensors must be set up, and even in the US, the standards aren't met 100% of the time. And that's insitu obs over land, let alone the utter lack of insitu obs over water.

Climate models CANNOT resolve clouds (well) and as @weather man will tell you, cloud coverage severely affects incoming/outgoing radiation which severely affects temp. Even our weather models (much finer resolution, much shorter time steps) can't resolve precipitating clouds that well, let alone "fair weather" cumulus clouds.

Climate models CANNOT resolve precip (well), it's too variable, too small of a scale. Precip drastically affects temp at all atmospheric heights.

Climate models CANNOT resolve severe impact events (well) like volcanic eruptions (just one example)

Climate models rely heavily on (heat) fluxes, especially over water. In order to accurately resolve those fluxes within models we have to be able to MEASURE and then input those measurements in to the models on a scale of 5W/m^2 AT THE VERY LEAST (with the most "accurate" models requiring accuracy on the scale of 0.1W/m^2) and the best our measuring tools can do right now is a maximum of ~10-15W/m^2 (AT LEAST an order of magnitude off).

Solar radiation is not constant and the changes are not accounted for in climate models (well)

Climate models cannot resolve differences in vegetation and how that vegetation will change over time (well).

Climate models cannot resolve differences in populations (well), how they affect climate, and how those populations will change.

Climate models are just now starting to consider atmospheric chemistry. (By now I mean within the last few years).

Climate models are now starting to consider ice formations (better than they ever did before)

Besides horizontal resolution and time steps of the models, we can talk about if the models are coupled or not with the ocean (they're not coupled well). We can also talk about vertical resolution of the models (vertical res of climate models = shit). One of the reasons why the euro wx model is so much better than the American (gfs) is because there are twice as many vertical levels accounted for (~60 vs ~120) where climate models split the atmosphere in to way less layers.

To give you guys an idea of how important initial conditions are I have included some images that show A VERY VERY SIMPLE model I ran over less than 1min, (less than 1000 time steps) with initial conditions of ONE VARIABLE varying by 0.001

I can go on and on, but to keep it simple, stupid, short: anyone that says climate models are true is more than likely trying to sell you something. Until models can resolve every single particle within the atmosphere (which will NEVER happen in our lifetime), they will be inaccurate. Too many variables, too big of a data field, too much misunderstood or simply unknown phenomena, and too many time steps.

FINAL DISCLAIMER
CLIMATE HAS CHANGED AND WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE FOREVER, TO THINK THAT WE CAN MODEL AND FORECAST, LET ALONE CONTROL IT IS BEYOND NAIVE. I am not a climate change "denier" but I am saying that the science is nowhere near being able to tell us what our climate is going to be like on a decadal or centurial time scale


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Kevins89notch

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What in the?

Just stop.

No. Both side are ****ing idiots, like always. Yes, Democrats, AND Republicans. Both sides are their reason for pushing their beliefs.

I'm not trying to have a friend's company make million off anything. I'm just saying we should all be less of an asshole to mother nature.
 

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