Breakthrough in battery technology

ajaf1656

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I would drive an electric vehicle back and forth to work. I just want to have a car, truck and motorcycle that run on gas for fun and when I need to do things.
 

Weather Man

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I'm sure EV adoption in India will go smoothly.

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ajaf1656

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Why don't they make them cordless charging and put whatever magical gizmo that makes that work under the street? lol
 

mustangbee

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The price won't be just the charging stations. It'll be all the new power plants that have to be built to provide the power, all the new high-tension wiring needed to transport the power, etc. Tried building a power plant, lately? Because you are going to need tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, to meet the demand. Guess what? No one wants a new power plant in their neighborhood. Not even gas power plants. Good luck with coal, oil or nukes (which, if society had half a brain, everyone would be screaming for nukes, ESPECIALLY all the so-called "concerned environmentalists").

The transition from gas to electric will be huge, the infrastructure costs will be huge. These factors alone will probably keep gas and diesel in our future for another 100 years.


This is a different point. The issue is you're thinking of the mass adoption. "Omg we need new power plants now!" When the reality is 80% of Americans are still don't even understand how electric cars operate. It'll take decades to be mainstream issue outside of California. But yeah, the only people that worry about building power plants now are the ones on car forums that understand the value they could bring, but honestly, Americans are mostly dumb, so we can be confident they'll need time to get comfortable with the idea. Not only that theres very few affordable fully electric vehicles, yet another barrier. So hold off on the thousands power plant we need to construct. The reality is itll be an option for about 30+ years, just increasingly viable.

Gas and diesel aren't going anywhere. Not my point at all. Itll just be long lines at the pump off and on for years while I drive by them in my 2nd option, plug in 300hp hybrid 80mpg.
 
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BrunotheBoxer

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This is a different point. The issue is you're thinking of the mass adoption. "Omg we need new power plants now!" When the reality is 80% of Americans are still don't even understand how electric cars operate. It'll take decades to be mainstream issue outside of California. But yeah, the only people that worry about building power plants now are the ones on car forums that understand the value they could bring, but honestly, Americans are mostly dumb, so we can be confident they'll need time to get comfortable with the idea. Not only that theres very few affordable fully electric vehicles, yet another barrier. So hold off on the thousands power plant we need to construct. The reality is itll be an option for about 30+ years, just increasingly viable.
Lots of blue woke stares are telling us not asking us that there will be no more petro car sales starting in 2030-35.
Good luck to those states and their constituents.
 

mustangbee

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Lots of blue woke stares are telling us not asking us that there will be no more petro car sales starting in 2030-35.
Good luck to those states and their constituents.


They say lots of things, all talk. Outside of California, the vast majority of Americans will be pumping gas and diesel for a long time.
 

James Snover

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Why don't they make them cordless charging and put whatever magical gizmo that makes that work under the street? lol

To do that you still need all the new transmission lines. Only now, you have to put it under the freeways and roads. And a break anywhere in the line means tens, or hundreds of miles of it stops working, while you chisel through the freeway to get it.

There is another way: beam the power to the vehicle via microwaves or lasers. I'm not even going to get into trying to convince everyone that having high power lasers or microwaves beaming at them is a good idea. Or what could wrong with that. Or how you're going to build it.


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JPKII

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One of the market segments I cover is Medium Voltage Variable Frequency Drives. One of the industries we study closely is power generation. This helps us identify where we should be directing our sales efforts for new plants and for retrofits of existing plant. Below are some anecdotal costs to build various types of power plants. Keep in mind, this is just the cost to engineer, procure equipment, construct, and finance the plant. This is not an operating cost.

Additionally, the high-tension lines @James Snover mentioned above generally sell for about $1M per tower. If we needed 4 towers per mile and 20 miles of line (this is often hundreds of miles) that cost would be roughly $80M. This does not include the substations required off of the transmission lines to convert to distribution level voltages that are carried, typically, by a wooden pole into neighborhoods.

Wind: $1500-$1800/kW
Combined cycle gas plant (peaking plants): $800-$1000/kW
Solar: $1300-$1500 (some as high as $3000)/kW
Nuclear: $6,000-$8,000/kW

Fun side topic, our multi-state territory has 96 units currently operating. Ranging from 45 MW to 1300 MW in size (some of them are nukes). 27 of those units are scheduled to be closed within the next 5-ish years. In total our territory has 32,337 MW of generation capacity today. Within 5 years we are reducing capacity, those 27 units, by 14,322 MW. So nearly a 50% reduction in generation capacity. With no real plans of constructing new plants of any real size to offset this loss. Apparently pixiedust and unicorn farts will power all the newfound capacity we need for the electric car revolution.
 

thomas91169

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One of the market segments I cover is Medium Voltage Variable Frequency Drives. One of the industries we study closely is power generation. This helps us identify where we should be directing our sales efforts for new plants and for retrofits of existing plant. Below are some anecdotal costs to build various types of power plants. Keep in mind, this is just the cost to engineer, procure equipment, construct, and finance the plant. This is not an operating cost.

Additionally, the high-tension lines @James Snover mentioned above generally sell for about $1M per tower. If we needed 4 towers per mile and 20 miles of line (this is often hundreds of miles) that cost would be roughly $80M. This does not include the substations required off of the transmission lines to convert to distribution level voltages that are carried, typically, by a wooden pole into neighborhoods.

Wind: $1500-$1800/kW
Combined cycle gas plant (peaking plants): $800-$1000/kW
Solar: $1300-$1500 (some as high as $3000)/kW
Nuclear: $6,000-$8,000/kW

Fun side topic, our multi-state territory has 96 units currently operating. Ranging from 45 MW to 1300 MW in size (some of them are nukes). 27 of those units are scheduled to be closed within the next 5-ish years. In total our territory has 32,337 MW of generation capacity today. Within 5 years we are reducing capacity, those 27 units, by 14,322 MW. So nearly a 50% reduction in generation capacity. With no real plans of constructing new plants of any real size to offset this loss. Apparently pixiedust and unicorn farts will power all the newfound capacity we need for the electric car revolution.

This is similar to CA. They closed San Onofre about a decade back and closing Diablo Grande (last operational nuke plant in CA) in a few years. It kills about 10kMw of generation with these two plants. CA at peak requires almost 50kMw from what I recall, and can currently only generate about 35-40kMw itself.

Conversion to EV's will not work without incredible public works projects to produce power plants and transmission. Similar to you, there is no plans for any of this. I tend to believe the push for EV's (outside of Elon just wanting to build sweet cars) is nearly criminal and a bigger bait n switch than smartphones and social media. You will buy a vehicle, that can only be charged when the grid allows it, and id say about two decades away from being only able to drive it when the government allows it too. You'll get your registration and itll tell you what days you can drive your car, and only how many miles you can drive it.
 

ShelbyGT5HUN

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I'm no genius, but I did a rough calculation for California if all vehicles were switched to electric. It came out to, you had to basically duplicate the current power grid on every level (generation, transmission, infrastructure) to fully charge an electric fleet.
 

coposrv

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I just went through figuring out what I could install since I had everything ripped out between the panel and garage. Stage 2 40 amp was the max I could do. Anything else required new lines (all underground) from the pole to the power box and then new lines from the power box to the breaker box. **** doing that with a capital F. My house is only 20 years old, how many people will rip out there current panel and run all new lines to there house for stage 3 or stage 4+ charging? Not to mention the power company may refuse because the lines supplying power to your neighborhood were never sized to support that!

I did install the stage 2 40 amp receptacle, because you never know what crazy mandate may come down the line.

None of what you just said makes any sense. Stage 2 40 amp? Huh? If your house is 20 years old and you have an underground service I’d bet quite a bit it’s a 200 amp single phase service. Unless you have 3 ac condensers running 24/7/365 you have more than enough available ampacity.


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T.Man

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No thanks I'd rather put my money into hydrogen ICE or hydrogen fuel cells.
 

Weather Man

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None of what you just said makes any sense. Stage 2 40 amp? Huh? If your house is 20 years old and you have an underground service I’d bet quite a bit it’s a 200 amp single phase service. Unless you have 3 ac condensers running 24/7/365 you have more than enough available ampacity.


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Master electrician with over 40 years experience disagrees with you. I am sure their are plenty of outfits out there that will install whatever you tell them to install.

EDIT: So a week like this week with day time high's in the mid 90's with high dew points. 2 AC units, 80 amp Ford charger pulling all 80 amps, 3 dehumidifiers kicking on and off, a panel wired for an electric stove, electric clothes dyer, 30x64 shop hooked into the panel. It has a air compressor and welder and all the other typical shop shit. Maybe I decide to put a window AC unit in.

I wonder how many electricians would be OK with that, if they were on the hook for installing the 80 amp Ford charger.
 
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DaleM

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Don't you have to deal with rolling black outs in CA?
They say lots of things, all talk. Outside of California, the vast majority of Americans will be pumping gas and diesel for a long time.

OK Bozos, stop clowning around.
 

SID297

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Here's another way to think about it: all the gasoline and diesel being burned in vehicles, right now? THAT is how much energy you are going to have to push down the power lines. But electric is more efficient than gas, you say? Yes. And there's generally 22% or so losses in transmission of electricity. then there are losses in the conversion to charge the batteries. So you come out about the same, in terms of total daily energy requirements.

Invest in copper mines.

Get out of here with your physics, making sense and shit.

No thanks I'd rather put my money into hydrogen ICE or hydrogen fuel cells.

Energy density and storage are still two major problems with H2. Also, there's no infrastructure for it so you're still having to build something from the ground up.

What does make sense is switch as many fleet vehicles as possible over to burning Nat Gas. Everything is already in place for that, just need to add more public filling stations.
 

T.Man

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Energy density and storage are still two major problems with H2. Also, there's no infrastructure for it so you're still having to build something from the ground up.

I agree, there's still a ton that needs to happen to make either of the two feasible. But I'd rather go down that path than the one we're on right now, with the idiotic idea that EVs and batteries are somehow "cleaner".

What does make sense is switch as many fleet vehicles as possible over to burning Nat Gas. Everything is already in place for that, just need to add more public filling stations.

100% agree with this approach too.
 

James Snover

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Get out of here with your physics, making sense and shit.



Energy density and storage are still two major problems with H2. Also, there's no infrastructure for it so you're still having to build something from the ground up.

What does make sense is switch as many fleet vehicles as possible over to burning Nat Gas. Everything is already in place for that, just need to add more public filling stations.
There's another physics consideration, and it's a real problem: imagine you've solved all the other problems: the batteries are affordable, reliably mass-produced, re-charge in less than fifteen minutes, will get you 350 miles with lights, AC and radio all going, and you've got the power generation and transmission infrastructure in place.

Solve all that, here's a new problem for you: Ever see a Tesla go up in flames? Burns vociferously, doesn't it? Ok: now imagine the battery that started the fire has the equivalent energy to go 350 miles. Or twice the amount of energy in the Tesla pack. The problem is that, if, say a gas tank is punctured, most of the time it just leaks and evaporates. The energy in the gas isn't released until it is combusted. In a battery, all the energy is available, all the time, and if it gets a chance, it will explode due to an internal short. Imagine a Tesla, burning up twice fast, after a big explosion.
 

Weather Man

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There's another physics consideration, and it's a real problem: imagine you've solved all the other problems: the batteries are affordable, reliably mass-produced, re-charge in less than fifteen minutes, will get you 350 miles with lights, AC and radio all going, and you've got the power generation and transmission infrastructure in place.

Solve all that, here's a new problem for you: Ever see a Tesla go up in flames? Burns vociferously, doesn't it? Ok: now imagine the battery that started the fire has the equivalent energy to go 350 miles. Or twice the amount of energy in the Tesla pack. The problem is that, if, say a gas tank is punctured, most of the time it just leaks and evaporates. The energy in the gas isn't released until it is combusted. In a battery, all the energy is available, all the time, and if it gets a chance, it will explode due to an internal short. Imagine a Tesla, burning up twice fast, after a big explosion.

With an 80 amp charger hooked to it, in your garage, at 2am.
 

SID297

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There's another physics consideration, and it's a real problem: imagine you've solved all the other problems: the batteries are affordable, reliably mass-produced, re-charge in less than fifteen minutes, will get you 350 miles with lights, AC and radio all going, and you've got the power generation and transmission infrastructure in place.

Solve all that, here's a new problem for you: Ever see a Tesla go up in flames? Burns vociferously, doesn't it? Ok: now imagine the battery that started the fire has the equivalent energy to go 350 miles. Or twice the amount of energy in the Tesla pack. The problem is that, if, say a gas tank is punctured, most of the time it just leaks and evaporates. The energy in the gas isn't released until it is combusted. In a battery, all the energy is available, all the time, and if it gets a chance, it will explode due to an internal short. Imagine a Tesla, burning up twice fast, after a big explosion.

I'm surprised we haven't seen more of that yet.

You also forgot to solve plethora of environmental concerns related to building electric vehicles. Then there's the geo-political concerns. Where are all those rare earth elements going to come from for the motors?
 

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