Elon Musk Swears He'll Send Humans to Mars by 2026

IronSnake

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Remember:

One tiny crack in the hull and our blood boils in thirteen seconds. Solar flare might crop up, cook us in our seats. And wait'll you're sitting pretty with a case of Andorian shingles, see if you're still so relaxed when your eyeballs are bleeding. Space is disease and danger wrapped in darkness and silence.

This quote makes me uncomfortable
 

My94GT

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Yes, ALL of them! LOL.

That's a very ambitious time line, but he'll try hard to do it. Question is, will he find volunteers to go on a probable one-way suicide run to Mars. There are things that money cannot buy, although it helps when pulling resources together for a really, really ambitious and nearly impossible venture like this one. I don't personally believe he'll succeed in sending humans (LIVE humans) to Mars by 2026. Too many big obstacles and challenges to overcome.

it would likely be easy to find volunteers. The problem is would any of them be qualified to travel there even if it’s a one way trip.
 

kazman

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Remember:

One tiny crack in the hull and our blood boils in thirteen seconds. Solar flare might crop up, cook us in our seats. And wait'll you're sitting pretty with a case of Andorian shingles, see if you're still so relaxed when your eyeballs are bleeding. Space is disease and danger wrapped in darkness and silence.


Pfft, just wear a paper mask, you'll be fine...
 

Mackie

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After introducing the Tesla semi in November 2017, Tesla delayed production twice now til late 2021. So apply the Musk Multiplier to any Mars ambitions, and in this instance I think the multiplier is infinity.
 

72MachOne99GT

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In all honesty, imagine there was truly a 50/50 of making it to Mars.

On that premise ALONE, there would be thousands upon thousands of applicants.

That isn’t to detract from his mission, or even the general intelligence of the average human.... but to point out that there are tons upon tons of adrenal junkiest that wouldn’t think twice about a one way trip (and that’s on the better side) to another planet.
 

DSG2003Mach1

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After introducing the Tesla semi in November 2017, Tesla delayed production twice now til late 2021. So apply the Musk Multiplier to any Mars ambitions, and in this instance I think the multiplier is infinity.

eh, I dont know that even he believes it but to set a goal like that will likely advance a number of technologies at a rate far quicker than not setting it. Even if they don't go I'd have to imagine some good will come from the attempt
 

ShelbyGT5HUN

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The only real way to go to Mars is to send a bunch of supplies in advance. You could never take that many supplies on the mothership. Also, no expert here, I believe depending on when you leave it can take 3 to 6 months to get there, depending on Mars' position, which changes every two years...

But hey, when they get there say hi to Arnold for me
Screenshot_20201205-003452_Google.jpeg
 
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quad

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The only real way to go to Mars is to send a bunch of supplies in advance. You could never take that many supplies on the mothership. Also, no expert here, I believe depending on when you leave it can take 3 to 6 months to get there, depending on Mars' position, which changes every two years...

But hey, when they get there say hi to Arnold for me View attachment 1676110
They have talked about this before. Supply ships goes first.

Life on Mars? Elon Musk says Starship rockets 'designed to make life multiplanetary'

Elon Musk Pushes SpaceX to Send Starship Rocket to Mars in 2024 Before Sending Humans

Elon Musk Pushes SpaceX to Send Starship Rocket to Mars in 2024 Before Sending Humans

When Elon Musk founded SpaceX in 2002, the ultimate goal was to reach Mars. Almost two decades later, the company has gone through steady developments and became the first private company to send astronauts to the International Space Station with 48 missions scheduled for 2021.

However, behind the scenes, Musk's team is busy in fulfilling the ultimate goal, sending astronauts to Mars. With its Starship rocket undergoing testing, Musk says in the next four years, the company will be able to launch its first Mars mission, albeit unmanned. That's an ambitious target for a private company like SpaceX. Although the Starship launch vehicle has had four successful tests, it is still some time away from completion.

But the SpaceX CEO believes it will be ready for even a Moon mission by 2022 and a Mars mission by 2024. "I think we have a fighting chance of making that second Mars transfer window," he said during a discussion with Robert Zubrin at the 2020 Mars Society Virtual Convention.

Narrow Window
To cover a 40.38-million-mile distance from Earth to Mars, a rocket will need to carry an enormous amount of fuel. But during Mars opposition, the distance reduces to 34.65 million miles and that's the optimal window to launch a rocket to the Red Planet. Mars opposition is the time when Sun and Mars are on directly opposite sides of Earth. This opposition occurs every 26 months from mid-July to Mid-August.

That's a narrow window that space agencies have been targeting for launch. The next optimal launch window will be in 2022 followed by 2024 and that's the target for Musk. He believes it will give the company enough time to be mission-ready. So far, Starship launch tests have been successful four times. But it hasn't been tested to reach the Earth orbit yet. Musk's target is to successfully send a Starship rocket to orbit by next year

"We're obviously venturing into unknown territory so it's not as though I have all these secret dates and I'm just keeping them from people. But these are just guesses. I am about 80 to 90 percent confident that we will reach orbit with Starship next year," Musk said.

mars-opposition.jpg


Starship Rocket
The other problem with a rocket that could transport heavy payload — scientific equipment and instruments — to Mars is that it will need to carry a lot of fuel. Thus, it needs to be bigger, better and efficient. At present, all the expandable rockets do not meet the criteria. Even if it does, it would not be cost-efficient either. Thus, SpaceX's Big Fat Rocket will be combined with a Falcon Heavy to create Starship with the capability to carry crew and heavy payload.

Musk estimates that such a rocket must carry at least five million tons of payload to the orbit so that it can transport a million tons to Mars. Currently, the final piece of a rocket that is capable of achieving such a feat doesn't exist and SpaceX is trying to accomplish that in an overly ambitious timeframe.

Musk said the Starship will be able to complete high volume flights in 2022. "I'm trying to make sure that our rate of innovations increases, and that it doesn't decrease," he added.

Mars Colonization
For some time now, various scientists have suggested that leaving Earth would be the only option for humankind to survive as the planet would become inhabitable in the future. It could be due to a meteor or nuclear Armageddon. Late scientist Stephen Hawking and Musk are two of them. Mars, for now, is the only planet in the solar system with the potential to sustain life and colonizing it has been one of the most told stories in the science-fiction genre.

But Musk has no interest in colonizing Mars. He only wants to enable transportation to Mars so that others can colonize the Red Planet if an apocalyptic situation arises. And reusable rockets are the only option according to him.

"To build a self-sustaining city on Mars, we have to achieve full and rapid usability. It is only relevant when it is rapid and complete. In the absence of radical innovation, there is no chance of meeting the goal. If we have to make humans multi-planetary species before it's too late, we have to be competitive," Musk said.
 

CompOrange04GT

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Honesty given my shit tastic life...


I’d be down.. why not. I’ll die eventually. Why not die on Mars
 

BigPoppa

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I am not shocked. It'll be interesting to see if he pulls it off.

I do wonder how they intend to overcome the lack of necessary technology. It would be serious innovation in a short period of time. Specifically thinking about the prolonged life in a Zero G environment, gamma/radiation exposure issues, and all the uber complicated things I have no experience or knowledge of.
This. It's a more difficult problem than many believe. We recently discovered that the Apollo missions were exposed to much higher doses of radiation than we expected. Once you get beyond the Van Allen Belts, you get pretty cooked.
 

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