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Weather Man

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Tesla lost $710 million in q2.


Huge Tesla bear says automaker will ‘hemorrhage cash’ this year
Jul. 23, 2020 12:06 PM ET|About: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)|By: Kim Khan, SA News Editor


Tesla (TSLA, +0.5%) mega-bear Gordon Johnson reiterates his thesis that Tesla’s valuation is “detached from reality” and warns the company will “hemorrhage cash” in H2 and accused it of “accounting chicanery”.

Johnson, founder of GLJ Research, has a price target of $87 on the stock and tells Bloomberg TV that Tesla is “a company that’s benefitting significantly from regulatory credit sales”.

“This quarter they sold $428M in regulatory credits, which is 100% net margin a benefit, vs. net income of 104M. The point is if you exclude those regulatory credit sales over the past 26 quarters, in only 4 of those quarters, the most recent of which is 3Q ’19, has Tesla made money.”

“Effectively their revenues, if you look at their total revenue, peaked in the fourth quarter of ‘18. If you look at their deliveries … (this) was not a record this quarter and we think the company is going to go back to hemorrhaging cash in Q3 and Q4.”

Tesla total revenue by quarter

saupload_TSLA_totalrev_072320_thumb1.png


“They aggressively recognized regulatory credit revenue that no one has yet purchased and they have not yet sold, so this is in receivables the past two quarter to get S&P inclusion, so we think it’s a lot of accounting, if you will, chicanery and we think reality is going to resurge in the back half of this year,” he said.

The thesis of BEV disruption doesn’t match the numbers, with battery electric vehicles making up just 1.4% of the auto market in 2019 from 0.1% in 2011, compared with a 20-basis-poin rise in light trucks, Johnson said.

If they made a profit in their automotive business, “we’d buy the stock,” Johnson added.

Many analysts cheered the company's results today. Read More: Analysts buzz over Tesla results after another profitable quarter

saupload_TSLA_midday_072320_thumb1.png
 

GTSpartan

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We can hate on Tesla all we want (it's pretty fun), but they've achieved escape velocity as a company, and nothing can stop them now. Way too much $ behind them. Amazon, Apple, Facebook, the list goes on and on hemorrhaged money for years. Look at them now. Laws and regs all across the globe are playing right into their hands. Operationally speaking, they'll hire the right people, implement the right systems, and figure out how to make money. Hell, look at the big 3......They need to sell millions of units a year just to break even. It's those guys that need to be worried about becoming the next Blockbuster video.

Comparing them to other car companies in pointless and futile. They are clearly not being viewed in the same universe as them. There are very, very few companies since the start of the industrial revolution that truly created a sea change. Tesla may just be one of them.

I despise Tesla by the way.
 

Weather Man

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We can hate on Tesla all we want (it's pretty fun), but they've achieved escape velocity as a company, and nothing can stop them now. Way too much $ behind them. Amazon, Apple, Facebook, the list goes on and on hemorrhaged money for years. Look at them now. Laws and regs all across the globe are playing right into their hands. Operationally speaking, they'll hire the right people, implement the right systems, and figure out how to make money. Hell, look at the big 3......They need to sell millions of units a year just to break even. It's those guys that need to be worried about becoming the next Blockbuster video.

Comparing them to other car companies in pointless and futile. They are clearly not being viewed in the same universe as them. There are very, very few companies since the start of the industrial revolution that truly created a sea change. Tesla may just be one of them.

I despise Tesla by the way.

The trouble is that making money matters, and the other car makers are poised to flood the market with competing cars with an actual dealer network to support consumers everywhere. If Musk thinks China will let an American company have more than a sliver of its market, he is in for a very rude shock.
 

ON D BIT

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We can hate on Tesla all we want (it's pretty fun), but they've achieved escape velocity as a company, and nothing can stop them now. Way too much $ behind them. Amazon, Apple, Facebook, the list goes on and on hemorrhaged money for years. Look at them now. Laws and regs all across the globe are playing right into their hands. Operationally speaking, they'll hire the right people, implement the right systems, and figure out how to make money. Hell, look at the big 3......They need to sell millions of units a year just to break even. It's those guys that need to be worried about becoming the next Blockbuster video.

Comparing them to other car companies in pointless and futile. They are clearly not being viewed in the same universe as them. There are very, very few companies since the start of the industrial revolution that truly created a sea change. Tesla may just be one of them.

I despise Tesla by the way.
Way too much money behind them just like Bernie Madoff...
 

GTSpartan

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The trouble is that making money matters, and the other car makers are poised to flood the market with competing cars with an actual dealer network to support consumers everywhere. If Musk thinks China will let an American company have more than a sliver of its market, he is in for a very rude shock.

GM has a 13% share, which amounts to more cars than what they sell in the U.S. No reason to believe they can't grow significantly in China. Political and macro economic conditions can definitely be volatile though.

Yes, the domestics will be flooding the market, but that doesn't necessarily threaten Tesla. Most of the other OEM's have serious perception/image problems that they have to deal with. That will be MUCH more difficult to solve for than Tesla figuring out how to make money selling cars.
 

ON D BIT

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GM has a 13% share, which amounts to more cars than what they sell in the U.S. No reason to believe they can't grow significantly in China. Political and macro economic conditions can definitely be volatile though.

Yes, the domestics will be flooding the market, but that doesn't necessarily threaten Tesla. Most of the other OEM's have serious perception/image problems that they have to deal with. That will be MUCH more difficult to solve for than Tesla figuring out how to make money selling cars.
Tesla has serious image/quality issues to deal with as well. He can't sell his vehicles without a government subsidy. This was true 5 years ago and its true today! The bigger problem is that elon does not want to fix them, its all an allusion for him. When one car fails he changes his gimmick, 18 wheel/flame thrower/sports coupe/tunnels/truck/and now finance. He wants full control and has no revenue. He will keep states and governments and cartels funding his pet projects that will keep him insanely rich on paper until he's dead or behind bars.
 

Weather Man

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GM has a 13% share, which amounts to more cars than what they sell in the U.S. No reason to believe they can't grow significantly in China. Political and macro economic conditions can definitely be volatile though.

Yes, the domestics will be flooding the market, but that doesn't necessarily threaten Tesla. Most of the other OEM's have serious perception/image problems that they have to deal with. That will be MUCH more difficult to solve for than Tesla figuring out how to make money selling cars.

If a greenie is looking at an electric they can buy and take to a local dealer versus no local dealer, Tesla will lose most of the time. You underestimate the convenience factor. The big 3 electric pickups will annihilate Tesla because when guys trade in their ICE, they are most likely buying whatever brand they are loyal to.

I remember looking at new SUV's and wanted to buy Acura, problem being nearest dealer was over an hour away and local Honda dealer said any warranty work had to be done at the Acura dealer, didn't buy.
 

GTSpartan

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If a greenie is looking at an electric they can buy and take to a local dealer versus no local dealer, Tesla will lose most of the time. You underestimate the convenience factor. The big 3 electric pickups will annihilate Tesla because when guys trade in their ICE, they are most likely buying whatever brand they are loyal to.

I remember looking at new SUV's and wanted to buy Acura, problem being nearest dealer was over an hour away and local Honda dealer said any warranty work had to be done at the Acura dealer, didn't buy.

Don’t disagree one bit.

What most people are having trouble grasping is Tesla is being valued on it’s potential for growth, not past performance. They sell what, 350k ish cars this past year or something like that vs. Ford on the order of 5 million globally. One is growing sales on the order of 50% + YoY, while they other has been largely stagnant for years, and will continue to do so. One is still quite young and far from operationally sound, and hasn’t been able to really make any money, while the other has had over a 100 years to get it right, and still has laughably low and pathetic margins. Seriously, how do you sell millions of cars a year AND still find a way to lose money? Somehow the U.S. makers fairly consistently do that.

This is part of what is driving all the insanity around Tesla vs. the conventional makers.
 

ON D BIT

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Don’t disagree one bit.

What most people are having trouble grasping is Tesla is being valued on it’s potential for growth, not past performance. They sell what, 350k ish cars this past year or something like that vs. Ford on the order of 5 million globally. One is growing sales on the order of 50% + YoY, while they other has been largely stagnant for years, and will continue to do so. One is still quite young and far from operationally sound, and hasn’t been able to really make any money, while the other has had over a 100 years to get it right, and still has laughably low and pathetic margins. Seriously, how do you sell millions of cars a year AND still find a way to lose money? Somehow the U.S. makers fairly consistently do that.

This is part of what is driving all the insanity around Tesla vs. the conventional makers.
50%? I’m seeing stagnant numbers. And that’s with subsidies and no competition. Not a good sign.
 

GTSpartan

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50%? I’m seeing stagnant numbers. And that’s with subsidies and no competition. Not a good sign.

Pretty much doubled their sales each year except last. Keep looking for excuses. Their prospects for growth are exponentially larger than virtually all other manufacturers.

And stop with the stupid subsidy argument. Half the companies in the U.S. wouldn’t be in business if it weren’t for the gov’t tit (excuse me, taxpayer tit). The free market hasn’t existed in the U.S. for a LONG time. Winner and losers are picked every day. Business is booming for the lobby industry.

You want to talk about subsidies and stacking the deck, explain to me the logic behind trying to force Tesla to sell cars through dealer networks? They have to get in legal battles just to have the right to sell THEIR product. Talk about a completely ridiculous and antiquated model.
 
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ON D BIT

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Pretty much doubled their sales each year except last. Keep looking for excuses. Their prospects for growth are exponentially larger than virtually all other manufacturers.

And stop with the stupid subsidy argument. Half the companies in the U.S. wouldn’t be in business if it weren’t for the gov’t tit (excuse me, taxpayer tit). The free market hasn’t existed in the U.S. for a LONG time. Winner and losers are picked every day. Business is booming for the lobby industry.
Every out of state car in china has a ridiculous tax on it except Tesla. In HK Tesla went from selling 3k a month to 5(total) in 3 months all because the subsidy ran out.

I won’t talk about the billion New York wasted on nothing. It’s interesting that ccp Austin goes in when ccp Houston is ordered to close.
 

Weather Man

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Be interesting to see how the auto makers use their green credits when they start selling significant electric. It may be that is how they keep selected ICE cars around. Wouldn't bother me if Mustang coupe got to keep a V-8 because Mustang electric SUV is generating green credits.
 

Weather Man

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Cars.com +16% after Q2 beats despite pandemic's auto weakness
Jul. 30, 2020 8:35 AM ET|About: Cars.com Inc. (CARS)|By: Brandy Betz, SA News Editor


Cars.com (NYSE:CARS) pops 16.3% pre-market to $8.01 after Q2 results beat estimates despite a 31% Y/Y revenue decline, driven by invoice credits to marketplace customers.

Average monthly unique visitors were up 6% Y/Y to 22.8M.

Traffic (visits) grew 10% to 144M and 75% came from mobile users.

Cars.com lost about 900 dealer customers due to the pandemic.

Monthly average revenue per dealer dropped 33% Y/Y thanks to financial relief offered to dealers amid the pandemic.

Previously: Cars.com EPS beats by $0.29, beats on revenue (Jul. 30 2020)
 

Weather Man

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Lordstown Motors to go public
Aug. 3, 2020 8:43 AM ET|About: DiamondPeak Holdings (DPHC.U)|By: Clark Schultz, SA News Editor


Electric vehicle manufacturer Lordstown Motors has entered into a definitive merger agreement with special purpose acquisition firm DiamondPeak Holdings Corp. (DPHC.U).

The deal implies a $1.6B value for Lordstown and $675M of the proceeds will be used to find production of the Endurance model.

Lordstown Endurance will be the first full-size electric pickup truck designed to serve the U.S. commercial fleet market with initial production expected in the second half of 2021.

Following the deal closing, the name of the combined company will be Lordstown Motors Corp. and shares will trade under the symbol RIDE.

As a reminder, Nikola's (NASDAQ:NKLA) SPAC deal drew a huge amount of investor interest.
 

IA Shelby

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Their are very smart people betting on and against Tesla. I for one would have been in the short camp. I like other bears would have gotten crushed. This is one of those stocks that nothing would surprise me.
 

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EV sector rips higher after Lordstown Motors goes public
Aug. 3, 2020 10:33 AM ET|About: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)|By: Clark Schultz, SA News Editor


There is some electrifying news out of the automobile sector with truck maker Lordstown Motors (RIDE) announcing that it will become a publicly traded company in a deal that will value it at $1.6B.

The SPAC transaction includes a $500M fully committed private investment in public equity, which includes $75M of investments by General Motors (GM +2.1%).

"We are thrilled with the opportunity to build Lordstown Motors into a top-tier electric truck company that is highly differentiated from the competition," states Lordstown Motors CEO Steve Burns.

Lordstown Motors unveiled the electric Endurance pickup in June and has received 27K orders from mainly commercial fleet customers.

The EV sector has been red hot and today is no different for Tesla (TSLA +4.8%), Nio (NIO +12.5%), Nikola (NKLA +4.3%) Li Auto (LI +3.4%) and Workhorse Group (WKHS +11.6%), which owns a 10% stake in Lordstown.
 

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