wallstreet hates Ford

VenomousDSG said:

And as we speak Tesla is trading at roughly just under $300, even with their company in shambles with no real business plan, and numerous negative stories surfacing about them weekly.

Government assistance and corruption are wonderful things.....

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I am amazed Tesla is still trading that high. Tesla has lost a lot of top level talent in senior leadership positions this year, so far 9-10 have fled, makes you wonder how many direct reports have left along with senior mgmt/leadership. They are also billions in the hole and facing federal investigations into crashes. I gotta hand it to Musk, he is one helluva a Con Man!

03Sssnake said:

I am amazed Tesla is still trading that high. Tesla has lost a lot of top level talent in senior leadership positions this year, so far 9-10 have fled, makes you wonder how many direct reports have left along with senior mgmt/leadership. They are also billions in the hole and facing federal investigations into crashes. I gotta hand it to Musk, he is one helluva a Con Man!

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They are in bed with the government and receiving funds under the table to keep them afloat, as well as utilizing billion dollar subtitles. Same with Space X. Space X is a bit more stable though as a company. I would have figured Trump would have closed the door on them by now.

It's amazing how a company that is such a cluster**** can be kept going. Yet not only are they still rolling after 14 years of never turning a profit, they can take part in stunts like launching Tesla's into space on 300 million dollar SpaceX rockets. It's easy to do things when it's not your money being spent i guess.

Here is a good read from a couple years ago.

Elon Musk's growing empire is fueled by $4.9 billion in government subsidies

I think the Tesla/Ford thing is ridiculous as Ford and most other auto manufacturers are more likely to build something of real significance than Tesla, but what I think it comes down to is the presentation and how Tesla is viewed as a company; that they will hype any product they put out to the moon and back and they will make sure to create buzz and that instant demand gratification like the iPhone does, and investors love that. The established auto manufacturers are not able to really tap into that because they have been established for so long and are just giants that are expected to innovate and move the industry along. Any manufacturer could have built the Model S and it would have been a steady seller probably, but because it was Tesla there was a mile long waiting list for it because they sold it as something new and fresh; Tesla was defying the status quo, but not really.

I'm no expert but I think that is what the investors thrive off of because it creates so many ups and downs for them and potential for huge gains.

Ford has issues, I think that being behind on autonomous cars and the recent switch to SUV's only has the market scared. Tesla makes its money on carbon trades and the rose colored glasses crowd buys all the hype.
Tesla is going to find out that there is much more to making a quality car than just the tech. People expect the doors to fit right, the seats to move properly, the hundreds of little details that the big auto makers have worked out over 100 years to just work. In a low volume vehicle, many pimples will be excused by the owners. When you go into mass production, people expect quality. Latest analysis of the 3 puts it at early KIA fit and finish quality.

mc01svt said:

The stock is back into the single digit realm yet again. When will this bloodbath end? With the recent CEO change i thought things would be different.

I'm not sure if i should buy more shares now or wait til it hits 7 or 8 bucks. Where is the bottom?

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the new buyin is said to be at 9. Have not looked to see where it is at as of last night tho.

Ford has always been undervalued. Part of the reason is that their financing dept is internal and analysts and investors do not like that. If too many loans default the resulting losses will come out of fords bottom line. GM financing is a separate company so their stock does not take that hit under similar circumstances. Then there is the largest upheavals so it stays undervalued.

I bought 900 shares at just under 6 bucks and another 100 at 10bucks. I am in it for the long haul.

VenomousDSG said:

And as we speak Tesla is trading at roughly just under $300, even with their company in shambles with no real business plan, and numerous negative stories surfacing about them weekly.

Government assistance and corruption are wonderful things.....

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tesla is a ****ing joke and their nutswingers are plentiful. Elon huskster calls a hero a pedophile and they hardly blink an eye. His mouth is, hopefully, going to put him and his company in the toilet eventually because his sheeple will wake up one day and realize what a shit company the have invested in

At the Ford investor day in Sept. 2014 Ford announced it would have to idle DTP and later KC to retool for the aluminum F150.

The stock took an immediate hit.

F150 sales:

2011 : 585K
2012: 645K
2013: 763K
2014: 754K (the sky is falling)
2015: 780K
2016: 821K
2017: 896K
2018: On track for 950+K

An aluminum truck blindsided the competition. The 'risk' paid off BIG TIME. The patents for rivet and adhesive assembly and 5 years manufacturing experience cannot be duplicated. The F150 now commands the highest ATP of any truck and is the top selling pickup truck ALWAYS.

The 10 year chart clearly shows what is going on since 9/2014. With any momentum there is a 'crisis' to maintain the trend. The most recent crisis was Ford 'only' had a $1.1 billion quarter - $600 million hit due to a freak fire.

There will be a rotation in the market. It is not retail investors buying up AMZN at $1800/share. The 'growth' story on a future that never needs to get here and irrational exuberance based on hype will end.

When you tell the plublic you dont want to sell them cars anymore how would you expect the stocks not to go down.

Mackie, FYI ford counts all F series trucks in its total, not just the 150’s.

As far as Tesla valuation, it and Ford are not comparable companies. Ford is just a regular car company, hum drum. Tesla is valued for future growth and unknown but expected catalysts, this goes beyond their car business. Has everyone seen their incredible solar shingles for houses? Residential, commercial and utility power stations? Musk innovates and Tesla stock benefits. Not saying I think Teslas valuation makes it worth buying, but I understand why it commands such a premium and Ford doesn't.

Doesn't help that Ford stock is massively diluted compared to Tesla. For every share of Tesla stock there are about 25 shares of Ford.

RedRocketMike said:

As far as Tesla valuation, it and Ford are not comparable companies. Ford is just a regular car company, hum drum. Tesla is valued for future growth and unknown but expected catalysts, this goes beyond their car business. Has everyone seen their incredible solar shingles for houses? Residential, commercial and utility power stations? Musk innovates and Tesla stock benefits. Not saying I think Teslas valuation makes it worth buying, but I understand why it commands such a premium and Ford doesn't.

Doesn't help that Ford stock is massively diluted compared to Tesla. For every share of Tesla stock there are about 25 shares of Ford.

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While I see the logic in your reasoning, what cant be simulated is Musk's terrible ability to actually MANAGE his companies. Feel good techniques based on 1 guys desires compared to sound, developed operating principles forged over 100 years making cars cant compared. In this case, Tesla is shit.

Tesla factory workers reveal pain, injury and stress: 'Everything feels like the future but us'

WARNING: LINK TO HUFFPOST. Its to a Huffington Post article, but its a good article given the topic.

Elon Musk Says His Factory Is Safe, But Tesla Left Workers' Injuries Off The Books | HuffPost

Unless Musk and Tesla get over his ego as a corporate leader, Tesla is in trouble.

China is a complete mess and Europe will continue to dog them for eternity it seems like. They are behind in the AV race, and leadership has done a piss poor job articulating their plan for the future. If you listened to their last few earnings calls you would see that. And to top all that off, a $11B restructuring cost over the next few years........Mullaly has only been gone 4 yrs......didn't take the current leadership long to F everything up it looks like.

Truck is a bright spot for sure, but may end up dogging them as they are increasingly viewed as a one-trick pony.

RedRocketMike said:

As far as Tesla valuation, it and Ford are not comparable companies. Ford is just a regular car company, hum drum. Tesla is valued for future growth and unknown but expected catalysts, this goes beyond their car business. Has everyone seen their incredible solar shingles for houses? Residential, commercial and utility power stations? Musk innovates and Tesla stock benefits. Not saying I think Teslas valuation makes it worth buying, but I understand why it commands such a premium and Ford doesn't.

Doesn't help that Ford stock is massively diluted compared to Tesla. For every share of Tesla stock there are about 25 shares of Ford.

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You mean the shingles that at the announcement he said everyone would be able to afford and at their appearance on the market only the rich could afford? Are those what you are talking about? Or are you talking about the ones that cost more to install than panels but produce less power?

And then there are the batteries that when announced had a 3000 dollar cost and were touted to run your your house in the event of a power outage and would uo costing more and you had to install a have a dozen to power your house in the event of a power outage because only one would only run your living room lights for about 20 minutes.

Or maybe you mean his cars that were supposed to be affordable for everyone but after all this time he cant deliver them on time or in the volume promised and quality control is nonexistent?

You are talking about the CEO that called the guys that rescued those kids in Thailand a pedophile after his “sub” was rejected because it was not flexible enough to do the job?

Yeah thanks but no.

That's arbitrary BS. A brand most people can't afford is a good place to be usually, especially in an economy like this. I bet you wonder why JCPenny stock is so cheap, they sell pants and shirts everyone can afford!

Im not sure that makes sense. A company that has a product that many can afford has a higher chance of generating revenue, and with mass production can reduce their production overhead. A company that has expensive products that fewer can afford may make a higher profit per unit than the cheaper offering but will ship less units.

Cutting the lineup, while it may have been a good business move, was a nightmare for PR. The way it was presented, made it look to appear as Ford re-positioning to a global focus, catering to the global market, and stepping back from US market/demand. It didn't come off as the most patriotic news, that's for sure.

Other companies are doing this as well, but it's not presented to the public with the same visibility.

Ford would have been better off, to make the bare minimum of the cut models, to meet whatever number justifies a production car, just to avoid telling people the shit isn't selling.

In cutting these models, it also probably correlates to layoffs and contributing to the unemployment statistic.

Overall Ford created a very negative outlook. They did it to themselves.

GTSpartan said:

China is a complete mess and Europe will continue to dog them for eternity it seems like. They are behind in the AV race, and leadership has done a piss poor job articulating their plan for the future. If you listened to their last few earnings calls you would see that. And to top all that off, a $11B restructuring cost over the next few years........Mullaly has only been gone 4 yrs......didn't take the current leadership long to F everything up it looks like.

Truck is a bright spot for sure, but may end up dogging them as they are increasingly viewed as a one-trick pony.

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By cutting the sedans and small cars Ford is telling everyone that’s is exactly what they are, one trick.

Basic car market, everyone has the same tech it seems, Honda to Toyota to merc to Audi, what matters is design comfort and price. I don’t see anyone setting the world on fire with so much competition in the $25k family sedan market.

The problem I see is that if you offer nothing the multitudes will look elsewhere when they need a truck or want a performance car.

While Ford is still engineering and pouring billions into r and d for vehicles for the world market, I don’t see the savings of not selling those vehicles here.

lexustech48 said:

Im not sure that makes sense. A company that has a product that many can afford has a higher chance of generating revenue, and with mass production can reduce their production overhead. A company that has expensive products that fewer can afford may make a higher profit per unit than the cheaper offering but will ship less units.

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Ford stock price to earnings ratio 7:1
Ferrari stock P/E 46:1

Ford profit margins pretax, around 4.5%. Audi's is more than double that. Ferrari, double Audi's.

RedRocketMike said:

That's arbitrary BS. A brand most people can't afford is a good place to be usually, especially in an economy like this. I bet you wonder why JCPenny stock is so cheap, they sell pants and shirts everyone can afford!

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If it was arbitrary bullshit he would have turned a profit by now and people would have a good reason to swing from his nuts. Right now he is spraying his man juice on the faces of his investors and all they do is hand him more money and beg him to do it again

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RedRocketMike said:

Ford stock price to earnings ratio 7:1
Ferrari stock P/E 46:1

Ford profit margins pretax, around 4.5%. Audi's is more than double that. Ferrari, double Audi's.

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Ford is a monster company compared to Ferrari

FY2017 Ford profit: 8+ Billion pretax
FY2017 Ferrari profit: $661 million USD (converted from euro).

Based on stock prices x shares in circulation Ford is just under 40 billion dollars. Ferrari is about $24.6 billion. Sounds impressive to me, but is that based on actual value? No its the stock value.

Take nothing away from the performance of Ferrari stock and its actual profit for the FY. That's a hell of a profit for shipping 8000 units on top of all the other business ventures they have. I can even imagine how much of that is off parts, financing and licensing etc.

Compare that to 8 Billion (pretax) generated by Ford and that number is small by comparison.

It's not all about the profit. There is so much more that is taken into account. Yes, Ferrari's profit is much less than Ford's. When you look at it from a return on investment, Ferrari blows Ford out of the water.

From a pure stock price perspective, growth potential is usually much more valued that absolute profit. In this case, Wall Street doesn't feel Ford has effectively articulated plan for growth. Mgmt hasn't done a very good job thus far with establishing that vision. Whether that's based in reality doesn't really matter, and could be debated forever. It's the perception that all they sell is trucks is what surrounds them at this point.